Daily Times

China’s economic engagement with Africa has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy in recent decades. Through significant investments, infrastructure projects, and diplomatic initiatives, China has emerged as a dominant player in the continent’s economic landscape. The China-Africa Forum (CAF), established in 2000, has served as a crucial platform for fostering bilateral cooperation and strengthening economic ties.

Since the establishment of the CAF, China’s investment in Africa has surged dramatically. According to the Ministry of Commerce, Chinese investment in Africa reached an unprecedented $49.2 billion in 2022, marking a significant increase from previous years. This investment has been channelled into a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, manufacturing, agriculture, and mining.

One of the most visible aspects of China’s economic engagement in Africa is its investment in infrastructure projects. Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya is estimated to be $4.7 billion and is part of a larger project to connect East African countries. While the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway in Ethiopia costing around $3.4 billion is a key link between Ethiopia and the Red Sea. Simultaneously China has built numerous hydropower plants across Africa, including the Grand Inga Dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo, estimated to be one of the largest in the world. All of this is in addition to the numerous roads and bridges that continue to improve connectivity within African countries and between regions.

China would have honoured its commitment to CPEC but Pakistan’s poor response to Chinese investment and economic interest makes for a compelling argument in the lender’s eyes to pull its strings.

China has investments focused heavily on copper and cobalt mines in countries like Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, driven by the demand for these minerals in electric vehicle batteries. On the other hand, Chinese businessmen continue to invest in iron ore mines in countries like Mauritania and Liberia, supporting its steel industry. Special Economic Zones and numerous agricultural projects have also witnessed a sharp rise in Chinese investment along with stadiums, convention centers housing projects in several African cities.

Beyond infrastructure, China has also been actively promoting economic cooperation and trade with African countries. The CAF has played a pivotal role in facilitating these efforts, providing a platform for dialogue, negotiation, and partnership. China has established free trade zones with several African countries, reducing tariffs and barriers to trade. Additionally, Chinese companies have been actively involved in joint ventures and partnerships with African businesses, creating new opportunities for economic growth and job creation.

While all of this is welcomed by the African countries, it comes at a great price for Pakistan as China continues to lose interest in CPEC. Once hailed as a game-changer for both countries, has seen a decline in Chinese enthusiasm. This downturn can be attributed to several factors primarily due to Pakistan’s internal challenges and incapacities and somewhat due to changing dynamics of China’s foreign policy.

Pakistan’s endemic corruption has plagued CPEC projects, leading to delays and cost overruns. Red tape and bureaucratic hurdles have also slowed progress, discouraging Chinese investors. Transparency International Pakistan has estimated that corruption, overpricing of projects, bribery and kickbacks could have cost Pakistan billions of dollars in connection with CPEC projects. The ongoing security situation especially the infiltration from TTP and BLA has raised concerns about the safety of Chinese personnel and investments. The icing on the cake is Pakistan’s failure to repay $15 billion in power-plant debt owed to Chinese energy producers. Further dampening Beijing’s appetite for future investment in Pakistan. I truly believe that China is showing courtesy to Pakistan by just helping to keep its economy afloat since we have proved to be an untrustworthy economic alliance.

China’s expanding global ambitions have led it to diversify its investments and reduce its reliance on any single country. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remains a key component of this vision as China focuses on other BRI projects in regions like Central Asia and Africa. However, the slowdown in CPEC projects will only hinder Pakistan’s economic growth prospects and add to the country’s rising debt burden. Not to mention the serious geopolitical implications that accompany this decline in CPEC’s momentum, since it is translated as a weakening strategic partnership with China.

To simply put, China would have honoured its commitment to CPEC but Pakistan’s poor response to Chinese investment and economic interest makes for a compelling argument in the lender’s eyes to pull its strings. On the other hand, China’s economic engagement in Africa has significant global implications. By investing in the continent’s infrastructure and promoting economic development, China is helping to reduce poverty, improve living standards, and enhance Africa’s integration into the global economy. Moreover, China’s growing economic presence in Africa is challenging the traditional dominance of Western powers and reshaping the geopolitical landscape.

As China’s economic interests in Africa continue to expand, the continent is poised to play an increasingly important role in the global economy. However, this African gain for Pakistan only means China’s diminishing interest as its economic ally.

The writer is Foreign Research Associate, Centre of Excellence, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamabad