Daily Times

On the night spanning between August 25 and 26, terrorists of the notorious Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) withered Balochistan with a series of coordinated attacks. Highways and railways were disrupted. Vehicles were torched. Passengers from Punjab were singled out to lose their lives. Security posts of the Levies and Frontier Constabulary were also not spared. The attacks ravaged ten districts.

Reportedly, around 35 vehicles were set on fire and more than 70 people (both civilians and security forces) lost their lives. In recent history, this was the single major loss of property and human life.

It is apparent that the Majeed Brigade of the BLA (which owned the responsibility) planned the attacks and dispersed its terrorists to designated places beforehand. Ironically, the security forces failed to catch the hint of the BLA’s next move. This is where local intelligence failed to perform. The same point also indicates that there is a present disconnect between the security forces, including the local police, and the masses. Either the BLA worked super secretly or the masses sided with and approved of the acts of the BLA. The same point also means that the current political regime running Balochistan is a dummy one having little penetration in the masses. It is also said that the attacks coincided with the death anniversary of the late Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti who lost his life in 2006 (August 26) for demanding the Baloch rights. The intelligence apparatus must have foreseen August 26 coming. Without the failure of intelligence, the BLA could not have worked in such an expanded area.

The BLA got sophisticated weapons from Afghanistan after foreign forces (US and NATO) left the country in mid-2021.

It is also apparent that the Majeed Brigade of the BLA kept on killing people, burning vehicles on the roads and fighting the security forces, both the Levies and Frontier Constabulary. Sounds of blasts and sights of burning vehicles must have alerted the security forces of the unfortunate happenings around them. Further, a few days ago, the BLA had also issued a warning to all not to travel on highways without affording the risk of intervention. A local administrator had also lost his life when his convoy came under fire. These events were enough to prompt the security forces into chalking out a plan to counter such threats with a rapid response. Ironically, when terrorists were on a rampage from one place to another, the security forces were generally inactive and decided to stay indoors. The security forces waited for the dawn. This was a tragedy.

In totality, the attacks are a signal of war on Pakistan. The moral authority of the state stands reduced. People’s reliance on the security forces has dwindled. Pakistan has reached a crossroads, where it has to decide about the next step. Unfortunately, when the attacks were underway, the Chinese Chief of Army was in Islamabad. China has already invested $60 billion in Gwadar and tolerated the deaths of its engineers in both the northwest and southwest of Pakistan. China has run out of patience. Whereas the federal cabinet has approved Rs 20 billion to launch Operation Azme Istehkam, China has offered its anti-terrorism cooperation to Pakistan. This point heralds a new beginning in Pak-China relations – both countries participating in a real-time anti-terrorist campaign to construct an economic future.

Nevertheless, things are not so simple. The BLA got sophisticated weapons from Afghanistan after foreign forces (US and NATO) left the country in mid-2021. Reportedly, it was the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) which shared the booty of ammunition with the BLA. Afghanistan also remained a hub for the training of the BLA, as Pakistan was an adversary of both the TTP and BLA. On top of it, the estrangement between the Afghan Taliban (ruling over Kabul) and Pakistan has also emboldened the resolve of both the TTP and BLA.

In the recent past, Pakistan afforded the annoyance of Iran by exchanging missiles from across international borders. Pakistan wanted to destroy the BLA camps in southeastern Iran. Pakistan could not succeed in doing so. It simply means that the anti-terrorism challenge before Pakistan’s security forces is not confined to Balochistan only. Instead, it spreads to neighbouring countries of Afghanistan and Iran. By now, the BLA terrorist might have fled to their hideouts existing in the neighbouring countries located to Pakistan’s west.

The India factor cannot be ruled out. Though Pakistan had permitted India to stretch a fence line along the Line of Control in November 2003 (in the wake of a ceasefire agreement) completed in late 2004, India is now complaining about the entry of Islamic militants into the Jammu region. Further, turmoil in Balochistan is bound to attract all those countries and groups keen to settle score with Pakistan. In the past, there appeared reports highlighting the training of Baloch separatists by Indian operatives functional in Afghanistan. One may surmise that the BLA attacks were meant to draw the Pakistan army to Balochistan. Hence, after Afghanistan and Iran, India would be the third country with whom Pakistan has to deal to bring peace to Balochistan.

Presently, given fragile economic conditions, Pakistan is in desperate need of foreign investment in the country including Chinese investment in Gwadar to develop the port. The attacks have aired the message of insecurity to any country thinking of investing in Pakistan. The attacks have also aired the message that Pakistan is failing to protect Chinese interests (both investment and engineers) in Pakistan. This is a grave situation unfolding to the disadvantage of Pakistan. This is where countries take steps in haste.

Pakistan has two choices: first, open the window of dialogue and see if it works; and second, launch a ferocious military operation to quell terrorism. Given the time Pakistan is passing through, the country may go for the second choice, which would be replete with both benefits and harms. Launching a military operation will not only confined to Balochistan. Instead, it will consume Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well. Taken together, Pakistan is going to see its western half cleaned up of miscreants soon.

The writer is an analyst on National Security and Counter-Terrorism. She tweets @TA_Ranjha and can be reached at taranjha1@gmail.com