Daily Times

On July 22, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) published the thirty-fourth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team pursuant to UNSC’s resolutions on the al-Qaeda, Levant (Daesh) and other terrorist groups active in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Related to Afghanistan, findings are startling for both the United States (US), which led the war on terror for two decades (2001-2021), and Pakistan, which somehow remained a partner. By concluding with the sentence, “Listed terrorist groups have continued to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in the face of counter-terrorist pressure”, the report raises concerns for both the US and Pakistan because of the following three main reasons.

First, para 75 says that the Daesh is swelling in number by seeking recruitment from Central Asia (especially Tajiks and Uzbeks) and improving financial and logistical capabilities with the help of Middle Eastern and East African sources. Further, the Daesh has been adopting an asymmetric warfare strategy and spreading its tentacles outside Afghanistan, especially to the north, whether or not with the consent of Kabul. Para 80 says that al-Qaeda is also following the footsteps of the Daesh seeking recruits from Central Asia and funding from miscellaneous sources. Nevertheless, al-Qaeda goes a step ahead of Daesh by strengthening its ranks with the cooperation from regional terrorist organisations of non-Afghan origin (such as the Arabs) reaching Afghanistan through roads. Of them, some ethnic Arabs are those who had operated in Afghanistan previously and enjoyed historical linkages with the Afghan Taliban, thereby making a direct connection between al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban, who are now ruling over Kabul. This is how al-Qaeda is reorganizing and enhancing its footprint.

Second, para 81 says that led by Noor Wali Mehsud (the leader) and Qari Amjad (the deputy leader), the Tehrek-e-Taliban (TTP) Pakistan has gained an estimated strength of between 6,000 and 6,500 fighters. Para 82 says that the Afghan Taliban sometimes acquiesce and at times support the TTP to intensify attacks inside Pakistan primarily targeting military installations. Both al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban train the TTP operatives (especially those belonging to the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar) in the province of Kunar to launch suicide bombings inside Pakistan. The operatives displayed their expertise by attacking Chinese engineers working on a hydropower project near Besham in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan on March 26. Under the banner of the TTP, another terrorist organization, the Tehrik-e-Jihad Pakistan is also active. This is how the TTP has been transformed into an umbrella organization for other terrorist groups active regionally.

Third, para 84 says that the Baloch groups are also active in seeking recruitment and training. Particularly, the Majeed Brigade attacked Gwadar Port Complex on March 2 and the Naval Air Base Turbat on March 26 in Pakistan. The Brigade has been warning foreign investors to withdraw from Balochistan completely. The al-Qaeda promoted cooperation between the TTP and the Majeed Brigade. This is how al-Qaeda is also settling an old score with Pakistan.

Pakistan used to take pride in its geostrategic location to accrue economic benefits. However, the TTP has been turning the geo-economic leeway against Pakistan.

Nevertheless, what the report has not mentioned is that, while leaving Afghanistan in mid-2021, the US and NATO forces left behind light weapons, knowing fully that the history of Afghanistan was replete with internecine wars and episodes of spilling over instability into neighbouring countries, especially Pakistan. Has the UNSC asked the US-NATO forces the reason for leaving behind light weapons intact, when these forces destroyed all hard equipment before leaving Afghanistan?

In both quantity and quality, light weapons have buttressed not only the Afghan Taliban but also the TTP, which is aiming at Pakistan. The TTP is the major supplier of weapons (besides training) to both Pashtun and Baloch terrorist/separatist groups inclined to do sabotage activities inside Pakistan. Not only the subsidiary groups of the TTP but also the Baloch insurgent groups have been using these weapons and associated equipment in fighting frequent pitched battles against Pakistan’s security forces. Apparently, by joining the war on terror, Pakistan antagonized not only the Taliban but also eventually the US.

It seems that the act of the US-NATO forces to ensure the availability of intact modern lethal light weapons to the Afghan Taliban was the expression of some grudges the US-NATO forces were harbouring against Pakistan. Their expectations might be higher than what Pakistan could deliver on the ground. The US-NATO forces have repatriated but they left Afghanistan festering with complaint why Pakistan sided with the US in the war on terror. This is called a double whammy. Pakistan partnered with the US in the war on terror and hence invited the ire of the Taliban fighting against the US forces which had landed in Afghanistan. After two decades, the US decided to hand over power back to the Taliban, isolated Pakistan, turned the Taliban against Pakistan, and left Afghanistan. The total sum gain for Pakistan was hostility. The only party at a loss is Pakistan.

Through the aforementioned three reasons, the report under discussion has mentioned clearly that Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts are meeting serious setbacks. Nevertheless, Pakistan perceives that the US is punishing Pakistan through the Afghan Taliban.

Now, the TTP has escalated attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan. The movement of the Chinese engineers is either halted or strictly supervised, leaving absolutely no room for a breach. China is pressing on Pakistan to deal with the TTP permanently. Pakistan used to take pride in its geostrategic location to accrue economic benefits. However, the TTP has been turning the geo-economic leeway against Pakistan. Similarly, the Baloch separatist groups have taken refuge in both South Afghanistan and East Iran to get trained and then attack Pakistan. The TTP and the Baloch insurgent groups share one common aim: to hit at Pakistan’s economic interests especially the Pak-China collaboration meant for developing an economic link to Gwadar.

Hitherto, the US has failed to realize that counter-terrorism efforts have made the US and Pakistan conjoined at the hip. Both might have their peculiar reasons for fighting terrorism, but the resurgence of terrorism is to the benefit of neither of them.

The writer is an analyst on National Security and Counter-Terrorism. She tweets @TA_Ranjha and can be reached at taranjha1@gmail.com