Daily Times

On July 23, in Washington, the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs of the United States (US) Donald Lu said that the US administration had sought a budget of $101 million from Congress for Pakistan to help strengthen its democracy, to assist it fight terrorism and to prod it into stabilizing the economy. Lu even went beyond his mandate to brag that “China is the past in terms of investment, and we are the future.” Perhaps, Lu did not know that Pakistan was the third biggest recipient of Chinese development finance worldwide.

However, on July 24, in Islamabad, the US Ambassador Donald Blome applauded publicly Pakistan’s contributions to counter-terrorism and underlined the US’ commitment to support Pakistan in this regard. Blome also said that the US was willing to do economic collaboration to improve renewable energy, climate management, trade, health, education, and other development sectors in Pakistan. Blome said so while addressing an international conference titled “Strengthening Pakistan-US relations” arranged by private bodies.

What prompted Lu to boast is not known but, in his address, Blome highlighted three main themes. First, the threat of terrorism was not over yet. To combat terrorism, the US would always be a willing partner of Pakistan. Second, burgeoning young population in Pakistan was a reality. Pakistan’s concern should be to educate it and tap its potential productively, before some ignorant youth turn to the path of terrorism. Third, Pakistan was struggling to find economic opportunities for survival.

To combat terrorism, the US would always be a willing partner of Pakistan.

If not in the field of economic survival of Pakistan, the issue of terrorism has converged the priorities of both China and the US to press upon Pakistan to do more. China wants the quashing of terrorism to protect its engineers working on various development projects in Pakistan, whereas the US yearns for the obliteration of terrorism as a follow-up to its war on terror, which continued for two decades (2001-2021) mostly in and around Afghanistan. Both China and the US have different reasons to expect from Pakistan to scale up counter-terrorism efforts.

Presently, Pakistan stands at a cross-road. On the one hand, Pakistan is under immense domestic pressure not to start any military operation (whether or not under the rubric of Azm-e-Istehkam), which could adversely affect the lives and properties of people inhabiting the north-west borders. On the other hand, Pakistan is being hard pressed by both of its allies (China and the US) to initiate a counter-terrorism heave to ensure domestic and regional stability. Both countries expect that any surge in terrorism should be quelled immediately.

In his address, using subdued words, Blome prognosticated a long term challenge confronting Pakistan: a young dynamic generation, mostly without education, looking for economic survival. The triad is worrisome, so are its prospects for peace. To elaborate, with the persistence of the triad, terrorism will find new recruits recurrently to continue its spell. The triad offers life to terrorism. One military operation tramples over one crop of terrorists; however, after a few years, the next crop gets ready. This is why Pakistan has to launch one military operation after the other after every few years to stamp out any existing wave of terrorism. A wave dies offering some respite until the next wave is ready. The cycle will continue unless the triad is wrecked.

Certainly, Pakistan is keen to have amiable relations with both China and the US, though both are growing hostile to each other politico-economically. Nevertheless, countering terrorism is a shared objective. Both China and the US has told Pakistan this point separately but emphatically. However, domestic pressure speaks otherwise, pushing Pakistan into a quandary.

On July 24, in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a 40-member Bannu Aman Jirga (an assembly of elders for peace in Bannu) not only opposed any military operation (whether or not in the name of Azm-e-Istehkam, which was initiated on June 22 against Islamic militants and Baloch seperatists), but the Jirga also demanded defenestrating the concept of good Taliban (those who had surrendered to the security forces). In their demands presented to the provincial chief minister, the Jirga not only sought an end to the centers of the good Taliban, but the Jirga also demanded an end to pickets and patrols demonstrated by the good Taliban. By saying so, the Jirga questioned selectivity presiding over the state’s policy, favouring one type of Taliban. Nevertheless, the Jirga made one point clear: the locals took exception to the bias practised by the state.

Now, the challenge before Pakistan is narrowed down to assess if the country is in a position to open a front against both kinds of Taliban: good and bad. An obvious answer is in the negative. The discriminatory policy of Pakistan has boomeranged to haunt it at the wrong time. Yet, Pakistan cannot do away with the distinction practically. The reason is that the Taliban who do not want to confront with the state need not be harmed. Unnecessary blood shed is prohibitory. It is the duty of the civil administration to establish the writ of the state in remote areas especially after the merger of former tribal areas into the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The other side of the picture is that the provincial administration claims that it does not have the wartime equipment (mostly smuggled from Afghanistan) carried by the good Taliban to stop them from their activities: roaming freely in an area and interfering in the routine of the locals. It is the incapacity of the provincial administration that has brought the situation to the fore.

The baseline is that Pakistan cannot withstand the pressure to launch a military operation, whether diffuse or scattered, against the bad Taliban, who dare challenge the security forces, attack foreigners, and disrupt the even tenor of life. Peace is at stake, so are the chances of foreign investment. The coalescence of counter-terrorism interests of China and the US is leaving no space for Pakistan to equivocate.

The writer is an analyst on National Security and Counter-Terrorism. She tweets @TA_Ranjha and can be reached at taranjha1@gmail.com