Daily Times

Nawaz Sharif, though ousted from the prime minister’s house by the verdict of five-member bench of the Supreme Court, could not be outclassed politically or even morally given the grounds of the decision that disqualified him.

The refusal to cave in to the pressure to scrap his proposed program of travelling to Lahore via the politically proverbial GT Road indicates his defiance and putting up political resistance.

Two decades ago, who could predict that circumstances would change Nawaz Sharif politically and ideologically in such a diametrical way? Nawaz had however resentment even at the time of the toppling of his first government that streamed out of his ego rather than difference in political points of view, informing to shape internal and external policy priorities.

Today Nawaz Sharif is bruised, hurt emotionally because of the way he has been tried and ousted from power but the move has placed him at a political vantage with nothing to lose further. But such an individual can turn the tides.

However, he has not placed his entire cards on the table. Perhaps, Nawaz is the luckiest politician who not only won his third come back into power but this time got a unique opportunity to struggle for what he could not accomplish while in power. To deprive him of high moral ground he was disqualified by the superior judiciary but on grounds which forced even impartial legal experts to look askance.

Instead of throwing him into political and moral oblivion, the decision equipped him with a formidable sense of victimhood that is more effective than any other political plank and narrative, particularly in our society. The adverse outcome of references against him and his family by NAB under the supervision of the Supreme Court judge will now further ingrain that sense among people. The initial reaction and response of people, particularly the PML N’s voters on the first day of his GT Road rally shows his vote bank is not only intact but can swell further if the PML-N maintains the tempo. This also shows maturity of the electorate that can now read between the lines as well as understand the power game.

Moreover, the international press and opinions unequivocally interpreted his disqualification by the judiciary through the lens of Pakistan’s treacherous political history and institutional imbalances. Unlike 1990s, international opinion and community find in Nawaz a regional pacifist that could turn the region from geo-strategic to geo-economic to accommodate and adjust the interests of regional and trans regional powers with positive economic and political effect.

Besides, for the first time Nawaz Sharif finds himself and his party in unique circumstances. He is ousted but his party is in power in the centre as well as in the most populous and resourceful province of Punjab. At least, his workers will not face hostile police and civil administration during political mobilisation. However, the abstract threat posed by the militancy and terrorism might be used to deter him but so far defied by him. Perhaps, this account has also been running an overdraft which hamstrung political mobilisation and process since the last decade.

This time the political situation is not as bleak for Nawaz as it was back in October 1999. That is, if he plays his cards carefully for the larger cause and not narrow parochial interests

So far, miraculously, the PML-N remains intact. That is a silver lining on the dark horizon unless deliberate cleavages are created within the party due to increasing pressure from invisible quarters. His political allies are still supporting him inside and outside of the parliament. Nawaz’s current political stance found sympathies and allies in the erstwhile left and progressive due to his pacifist foreign policy approach and civilian supremacy stance domestically.

Even in the face of realpolitik, PPP cannot toe the line of establishment totally. If PPP remains sitting on the fence or opts to play on both sides of the fence it can result in eroding of its own support base, particularly among its die hard anti-establishment cadres who offered sacrifices for democracy and civilian supremacy since Zia’s era. Moreover, Nawaz seems to have become anti-establishment to uphold pro civilian supremacy. He is likely to draw the support of the active as well as dormant, struggle hardened cadres of the left and the progressive. But Nawaz Sharif needs to be mindful of his son-in-law, Capt Safdar’s inane utterances.

This trend can be calibrated by going through the current writings and op-ed of the left and progressive intelligentsia, journalists and writers in support of Nawaz Sharif’s current stance who were not favourably drawn towards him two decades ago. Nawaz still enjoys the support of the far right conservative intelligentsia and journalists that make a healthy confluence of minimum consensus between the conservative and progressive for the supremacy of civilian.

This time the political situation is not as bleak for Nawaz as it was in post October 1999, if he plays his cards carefully for the larger cause and not narrow parochial interests. He should move now from limited objectives to broader goals that can make him an icon in the history of politics even if he meets, God forbid, Benazir’s fate. His statesmanship role and struggle for a constitutional polity with sovereign parliamentary system can galvanise across the board support and consensus that can change the tides of our political history.

The writer is a political analyst hailing from Swat. Tweets @MirSwat

Published in Daily Times, August 12^th 2017.