Daily Times

As discussed in Part I, the prevalent international environment is too complex and uncertain and will remain so until China and Russia have dethroned the US from the mantle of being the sole superpower of the post-Cold War world. Therefore, my argument is that hybrid solutions to protracted conflicts may be found by the regional powers instead of global powers who have their grand strategy objectives.

In Part I published in Daily Times, Pakistan on July 22, 2024, I briefly explained the domains of diplomacy and socio-cultural similarities as part of the hybrid effort for the resolution of protracted conflicts. In this short article, I will delve into the domains of political, economic, and military. However, it is necessary to reiterate that hybrid efforts are not executed in isolation and also not by one party only.

There is no denying that durable peace and stability in the warring regions can only be achieved through a political solution. However, it is the most difficult part of the hybrid approach. This is one reason why I have kept it after diplomacy and socio-cultural aspects of the entire process. While political solutions are long-lasting but difficult to achieve, therefore, a regional approach will be more prudent, because the opposing parties are more familiar with the strategic culture of each other and the regime interest that may overshadow peoples’ interests at times.

If the Palestinian people are losing lives and properties, the Israelis are not living a secure life.

The political solutions to protracted conflicts may be approached through bilateral or multilateral dialogue through regional interlocutors. Gaza talks on humanitarian assistance were facilitated by Qatar, a small but effective regional player.

Earlier also, Qatar played a key role in talks between the Afghan Taliban and the US, culminating in the Doha Agreement 2020 that led to the withdrawal of US-led NATO from Afghanistan after two decades of war between Unequal Military Powers (UMPs). Moreover, the political solution to any protracted conflict will certainly involve international organizations and institutions, therefore, regional alliances can play a decisive role in the process.

There are numerous UN Resolutions on Palestine, Kashmir, and Ukraine, which will have a strong platform for political dialogue at multiple forums. However, a strong commitment by the warring nations and regional players will be needed to accomplish the task.

Yet, it is doable because a violent conflict between any two states is always a serious threat to the respective region. However, a political solution to a protracted conflict is usually dependent on positive diplomacy, both on the part of the warring states as well as the regional players. The benefits of positive diplomacy may encourage the warring states to welcome the initiatives of the regional players.

Next in line that may run parallel to other approaches is the economic integration of the warring states. In this globalized world, economic interdependence and interconnectedness play an important role in achieving and sustaining enduring peace and stability after a prolonged period of wars and conflicts. Israel is a fairly developed state as far as technology and industry are concerned. A durable peace with Palestine will be far more beneficial for Israel than any of the Arab nations in the neighbourhood.

Likewise, the solution of Kashmir can be far more productive for India than Pakistan because the latter will not be required to spend on its Western border and will have more resources to face off against China in synch with its strategic ally, the US.

Moreover, India will have the opportunity to trade with Central Asian States through Pakistan and Afghanistan. Also, the Iranian gas pipeline can easily pass through the Pakistani territory to Indian borders. India will also be able to build a SAARC Highway, as proposed by this author in the book South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace, published in 2022.

Coming to the military solutions as the last resort in the hybrid process, it is necessary to mention that both Israel and India have employed this option over the last seven decades without any worthwhile accomplishment. Several military operations have been conducted on and against the Palestinian people without a significant achievement.

The generations have changed hands in resisting the Israeli occupation of their ancestral lands and stood the test of time against an Unequal Military Power (UMP). If the Palestinian people are losing lives and properties, the Israelis are not living a secure life. Perhaps, their generations have faced more uncertainty and inherited more hatred of the world community due to genocidal acts committed by their armed forces against the noncombatants, particularly the women and children.

The same is the case in Kashmir. India may have abolished Article 370 and 35A, withdrawing special protection to the disputed territories, but the fact remains that the people of Kashmir do not subscribe to Indian authority. India has posted over 700,000 troops to crush the Kashmiri resistance to its occupation but remains unsuccessful in doing so.

Therefore, this author does not see a military solution to Israel-Palestine and India-Pakistan over Kashmir disputes. A hybrid solution based on regional effort may be more prudent to resolve protracted conflicts than by military means.

(Concluded)

The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”