Daily Times

The dollar crept off five-week lows on Tuesday, as investors weighed the case for a September rate cut after comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and rising odds for the re-election of former President Donald Trump.

The Japanese yen was weaker in Asian hours after Monday’s one-month high of 157.165 to the dollar, keeping traders wary of further intervention by Tokyo.

On Monday, Powell said the second quarter’s three U.S. inflation readings “add somewhat to confidence” that the pace of price increases is returning to the Federal Reserve’s target in a sustainable way.

The comments, likely Powell’s last until his press conference after a Fed meeting set for July 30 and 31, shifted rate cut expectations.

Markets now anticipate 68 basis points (bps) of easing this year, with a rate cut in September fully priced in, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against six peers, was at 104.3, not far from the one-month low of 104 it touched on Monday.

“Despite dovish inclinations, Powell remained in a data-dependent mode, which is warranted after the Fed has burnt its fingers with inflation running back higher in Q1 after a dovish pivot at the end of 2023,” said Charu Chanana, head of currency strategy at Saxo.

“Markets may need to wait longer for the confirmation of their September rate cut hopes, and growth and labour data will be on the radar, such as retail sales today.” U.S. retail sales for June due later in the day are expected to show a decline of 0.3% month-on-month.

The euro was at $1.0893, just shy of a four-month high touched on Monday, having erased all of the losses of the past few weeks when it came under pressure from uncertainty about the French election.