Daily Times

Amid tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, a new chapter has emerged in the region following the defence pact between the Philippines and Japan. The Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) is designed to deploy forces on each other’s soil, to conduct joint military exercises, and Filipino forces will be able to carry out combat training in Japan. The pact is tailored due to the shared threat by China to Japan and the Philippines in the East China Sea and South China Sea, respectively. However, the pact has to be ratified by their respective parliaments. The defence pact carries significance for both signees to create an impression of deterrence and unity against China. Most significantly, the pact is a step to contain the influence of China with the assistance of the United States in the South China Sea.

The pact is the consequence of continuous skirmishes between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. The most serious happened on June 17, when Chinese coast guard personnel wielding sticks, knives, and an axe surrounded and boarded three Philippine Navy boats during a resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed Spratly Island. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. denounced the actions of China in the South China Sea and warned that the death of any Filipino at the hands of China would be deemed close to an act of war. Besides, the Philippines asked for financial compensation of $1 million for the June collision.

The US has played an active part in forming a pact to strengthen its allies against China in the region and contain its growing influence in the world.

But the Chinese Foreign Ministry termed it a provocation and warned to stop it, saying that it was safeguarding its rights and enforcing the law. So, the Philippines should bear the consequences of its infringement activities.

The dispute in the South China Sea has numerous reasons. Firstly, the region is rich in fishing, and with China controlling much of the area, it is becoming one of the largest fishing industries in the world. The fishing industry in China has constructively contributed to the Chinese economy, making it the biggest exporter of aquatic products in the world. Secondly, the region is also rich in energy, as the US Geological Survey estimated in 2012 that the entire South China Sea contains around 12 billion barrels of oil and 1900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Thirdly, control over the South China Sea would guarantee its security in distant waters. Also, China can expand its maritime navigation, which can outmatch US maritime dominance and power in East Asia. The South China Sea connects the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean and helps with global commerce of goods and energy shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. Control over this region enables China to thrive through exports. Lastly, China mitigates any vulnerability to be attacked through the South China Sea.

China is engaged in a tussle with the Philippines on four islands, namely the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Macclesfield Bank, and Pratas Island and Reefs. China claims its historical right over these islands, which are covered by a nine-dash line in the South China Sea. Nine-Dash Line covers much of the South China Sea, even cutting half of the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. The Spratly Islands, having rich marine resources, minerals, and hydrocarbon deposits, have been a bone of contention for standoffs among China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. Reportedly, except Brunei, all others have established garrisons on the Spratly Islands.

China has also constructed artificial islands in the South China Sea to claim much of its territorial water. De facto, the United Nations Convention on Law of Seas (UNCLOS) permits the construction of artificial islands under Article 60, but it allows construction in their exclusive economic zone, with the restriction that the island-constructing country should inform other coastal states nearby and preventing any harm to those countries.

In this regard, the Philippines filed a case in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, where in 2016 court favoured the Philippines, declaring a nine-dash line without legal basis. But China refused to comply with the decision, saying that the court lacks the jurisdiction to try this case. Notably, the powerful countries do not comply with most of the decisions of international courts or tribunals because they do not have any specific implementing machinery. They comply with the decision if they file a case in a contentious jurisdiction, which remains binding on the parties to the case. However, where decisions are implemented by the United Nations Security Council, countries with veto power exercise their veto power to prevent the implementation of such decisions against themselves or their allies.

With this pact, the Philippines is also expected to benefit from the Japanese program, launched in April 2023, which is designed to provide weapons and equipment free of charge to like-minded countries to expand security cooperation, which will at least assist the Philippines in acquiring weapons and other such equipment to engage in any standoff with China effectively but still be unable to outmatch China. Besides, in November, Japan provided the Philippines with five surveillance radars to strengthen its coastal supervision capabilities, which will surely improve the surveillance of the Philippines’s end in the South China Sea.

Most importantly, the Philippines is strategically useful for the United States because the South China Sea dispute can drag the USA. So due to its proximity to Taiwan, it is too important for the USA to engage in any possible war on Taiwan since American analysts believe that if not today, China will invade it tomorrow. So, to assist her, the Philippines will play a key role. Thereby, the US has played an active part in forming this pact to strengthen its allies against China in the region, maintain its influence, and contain the growing influence of China in the world.

For Japan, the pact does not seem too constructive since Japan does not engage with China in any direct dispute, but the presence of its forces on the Philippines’ soil and joint drills may be a deterrent for China and a signal of unity among its antagonists against China.

Japan and China have been in a tussle over a group of islands named Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China. These islands can be frontiers to safeguard China from Japan and the USA. China can use the islands to establish submarine bases, missile bases, and radar systems that will surely expand China’s security and military in the region. As photographs suggested, Mischief Reef was armed with anti-aircraft weapons and a CIWS missile defence system in the South China Sea. Similarly, this group of islands can be used for defence purposes in the East China Sea.

If the pact is ratified, possibly it will be ratified, it will be a signal that is not too sound but capable of deterring China from any engagement in war, but it will not help the Philippines get its due share in the South China Sea as China claims its historic right over its claimed sea with the help of the nine-dash line.

The writer is an advocate based in Karachi. He can be reached at advalizubair@gmail.com.