Daily Times

United States is currently being run by unpredictable and confused leadership, which is slow in decision making and good at firing its own staff. Since January 20 when President Trump took oath, he had to face several challenges and has mostly been finding ways to legitimise his controversial decisions. He remained occupied in domestic challenges and since then the most expensive foreign war of US had been ignored. There is frustration among Americans as State and Defence Departments are vying for power for their role in Afghanistan.

Reducing foreign aid and slashing humanitarian and development funds can endanger national security but Trump doesn’t seem to consider diplomacy a preferred tool of engagement.

President Trump before coming to office claimed he will make wonderful deals for US and its citizens. But so far there is huge criticism on him over his failure to do so? But Trump is of the view that Congress does not trust him and makes things harder for him while he is busy negotiating over effective deals. In last six months, the president has not legislated on anything big. His Afghanistan policy Is failure so far as he is blaming General Nicholson who is heading Resolute Support Mission. But National Security Adviser General McMaster is supporting General Nicholson and stressing efforts being made in Afghanistan are unreported and there has been great work done in Nanagarhar province of Afghanistan. But unfortunately there has not been concrete policy for Afghanistan. Office of Special Representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan was scrapped initially but in June acting charge of this office has been given to Alice Wells. Ambassador Wells recently visited Pakistan and Afghanistan amid inter agency review on AF-Pak Policy which is yet to be released.

Trump, being a businessman, wants to make a deal with Afghanistan like the one he has made with Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea for protecting these countries’ defence. He wants to give impression he is deal maker so he got minerals from Afghanistan from where no one in history could get anything in terms of economic profit. He wants to give justification for troops in Afghanistan by declaring that they are extracting minerals from there. Because Secretary Defense and National Security Advisory after reviewing Afghanistan policy suggested modest increase in number of troops.

Poverty-wrecked and unstable Afghanistan wants America to stay put so external powers keep
financing the country before any collapse

There are about $ 1 Trillion mineral reserves in Afghanistan so one of the confusions for President Trump and his corporate friends is how to extract those rare deposits. Companies like DynCorp International who specialised in large scale military contracts are advising Trump. President’s son in law and close aide Jerad Kushner is considered the man who helped Trump win presidency weighing for options to have private military contractors as one of options instead of regular US Army. China has $3 billion contract for developing a copper mine and Trump does not want US soldiers to watch the country extracting rare earth deposits. Companies and people involved in mining industry are advising President Trump on it.

Poverty-wrecked and unstable Afghanistan wants America to stay put so external powers keep financing the country before any collapse. Ashraf Ghani is worried as 40% territory being controlled by Taliban and Afghan National Army is not capable enough to protect the sovereignty of country. But at the same time, the Afghan government does not want to sacrifice their power share by letting Taliban come in government.

Other players making efforts like Pakistan and Russia have been ignored so diplomacy is clearly not a preferred tool for dealing. Bilateral security agreement between Kabul and Washington makes Afghanistan vulnerable as US will not fight with Taliban but only if Resolute Support Mission is attacked. However, US has bombed certain IS hideout in Afghanistan which makes the country more vulnerable because of selective military engagement of US there.

Reduced diplomatic options in Afghanistan mean prolong conflict and unstable state for another 10 years at least. Donald Trump will continue his policy for 4 years and if Trump is not next president that means another 4 years will be needed for making new policy. There are issues in Washington but there is a serious crisis in Kabul as well. Because Kabul is not serious in taking ownership of its problems.US and NATO will have to make serious effort to make it clear to Kabul’s unity government that international community cannot take responsibility for infinite time. Kabul is engaged in blame game and has been unable to make serious efforts for peace at home and abroad.

The writer is is Strategic and Political analyst. He teaches international politics in NUML Islamabad

Published in Daily Times, August 15^th 2017.