Daily Times

Thirty-three years after India launched Operation Meghdoot to capture Pakistan’s territory at the Siachen Glacier, its forces have sneaked into the Chinese territory of Doklam.

India has a history of furtive encroachments into contiguous unguarded foreign lands as a means of gaining tactical advantage. Its nocturnal naughtiness at Siachen was an attack on Pakistan’s territorial integrity. The latter therefore was left with no option but to offer a befitting response of its own. Resultantly, the Siachen Glacier has become the world’s highest battleground.

Now India is locked in grave confrontation with China over Doklam and the situation shows no signs of abating any time soon. China is well aware of India’s tilt towards hegemony and expansionism by way of its ‘forward policy’, which translates into sneaking into neighbouring territories to build military outposts there. China had effectively countered this policy back in October 1962 and battered the Indian Army when the latter had attempted to occupy Chinese territory in the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh.

India claims that it entered the Doklam area merely in order to stop China’s constructing of a road that strays across the Bhutan border. India could have offered no clearer acknowledgement that Doklam is not part of its own territory. China and India share a 3,488-km border, of which 220 km lies in Sikkim near Doklam. The latter, for its part, represents a tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan.

The Indian motive is clear: to secure a tactical advantage throughout the entire plateau while keeping its eye firmly on Kashmir. Towards this end, Indian troops already enjoy immense advantage given that Sikkim is on a higher plane than Chinese military positions. The latter, of course, are trapped between India on one side and Bhutan on the other.

Beijing has taken New Delhi’s bellicosity quite seriously if statements such as “the countdown to a military conflict” has begun, as well as the warning that India should withdraw its troops from Doklam “before it’s too late” are to be taken at face value. China’s media also entered the fray, calling for “shameless” India to be taught a bitter lesson that would see it suffer greater losses than in 1962.

India is not playing ball and has refused to withdraw its boots on the ground. Admittedly, the number is not large but the climate is extremely volatile.

The longer the standoff continues the greater the chances of armed skirmishes between the two sides. And that means the greater the possibility of war. If the worst were to happen — it would be nothing short of devastating for the region as a whole and for Pakistan in particular. For India would inevitably deploy forces along Pakistan’s borders on the likely pretext of its proximity to China.

That India has blatantly ignored China’s warning suggests that it has been emboldened by its status as the US strategic partner for this century. Quite possibly New Delhi also believes that in the event of any military aggression — Washington would rush to offer it both military and diplomatic support. How things have seemingly changed. For during the 1962 Sino-Indian war, Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had requested 12 American fighter jet squadrons as well as a modern radar system to thwart the Chinese onslaught. Writing in is book, JFK’s Forgotten Crisis: Tibet, the CIA and the Sino-Indian War, Bruce Riedel notes that Nehru had been in a state of clear panic while making these appeals. The US did was in no mood to oblige him at all.

Yet the question of American support should not be taken for granted by India. Meaning it should not forget that the superpower is currently embroiled in a bitter standoff with North Korea. Bluntly put, it needs China’s support to break the impasse. Therefore it may be more interested in gently courting Beijing at this point than antagonising it outright. All of which suggests that India may have a long wait if it expects overwhelming American support. And all the while China’s clarion is rising.

India should not take the question of American support for granted. For the US is currently embroiled in a bitter standoff with North Korea. Bluntly put, it needs China’s support to break the impasse. Therefore it may be more interested in gently courting Beijing at this point than antagonising it outright

Beijing throughout has linked India’s expansionist designs to the Kashmir issue. Indeed, a Chinese think tank has inferred that the army of a ‘third country’ could well enter Indian-held Kashmir at Pakistan’s request. The same logic would be at play that apparently prompted the Indian Army to enter Bhutanese territory at the request of the government there.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office, for its part, should rebuke India publicly over the latter’s penchant for unilaterally challenging the territorial integrity of neighbouring countries. And just as China’s state media has linked Kashmir to Doklam — Pakistan should also make sustained diplomatic efforts to raise international awareness of India’s illegal occupation of Siachen as well as of Doklam.

The global community must stand as one. For keeping in view the volatile environment — it may not be too far-fetched to envisage Doklam having the potential to become another nuclear flashpoint. The world needs to come together if we are not to fall into the abyss.

The writer is Honorary Director Centre for Peace and Security Studies, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Masters in International Security, War Studies Department, King’s College London. Tweets at N Elahi@Aaibak

Published in Daily Times, August 16^th 2017.