Daily Times

Somalia’s government is seeking to slow the withdrawal of African peacekeepers and warning of a potential security vacuum, documents seen by Reuters show, with neighbouring countries fretting that resurgent al Shabaab militants could seize power.

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), a peacekeeping force, is committed to withdrawing by Dec. 31, when a smaller new force is expected to replace it.

However, in a letter last month to the acting chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council the government asked to delay until September the withdrawal of half the 4,000 troops due to leave by the end of June. The letter has not been reported before. The government had previously recommended, in a joint assessment with the AU in March, reviewed by Reuters, that the overall withdrawal timeline be adjusted “based on the actual readiness and capabilities” of Somali forces.

The joint assessment, which was mandated by the U.N. Security Council, warned that a “hasty drawdown of ATMIS personnel will contribute to a security vacuum”. “I’ve never been more concerned about the direction of my home country,” said Mursal Khalif, an independent member of the defence committee in parliament. The European Union and United States, the top funders of the AU force in Somalia, have sought to reduce the peacekeeping operation due to concerns about long-term financing and sustainability, four diplomatic sources and a senior Ugandan official said.

Negotiations about a new force have proven complicated, with the AU initially pushing for a more robust mandate than Somalia wanted, three of the diplomatic sources said. A heated political dispute could lead Ethiopia to pull out some of the most battle-hardened troops.

Somalia’s presidency and prime minister’s office did not respond to requests for comment. Mohamed El-Amine Souef, AU special representative to Somalia and head of ATMIS, said there was no definitive timeline for concluding negotiations but that all parties were committed to an agreement that helps achieve sustainable peace and security.

“The AU and Somalia’s government have emphasised the importance of a conditions-based drawdown to prevent any security vacuum,” he told Reuters.

The Peace and Security Council is due to meet on Somalia later on Thursday to discuss the drawdown and follow up mission. As the drawdown proceeds, with 5,000 of around 18,500 troops leaving last year, the government has projected confidence. It has said the new force should not exceed 10,000 and should be limited to tasks like securing major population centres. The call for a smaller force likely reflects views of nationalists who oppose a heavy foreign presence in Somalia, said Rashid Abdi, an analyst with Sahan Research, a Nairobi-based think-tank focused on the Horn of Africa.

Worried Neighbors: Uganda and Kenya, which contributed troops to the departing mission, are also worried.

Henry Okello Oryem, Uganda’s state minister of foreign affairs, said that despite intensive training efforts, Somali troops could not sustain a long-term military confrontation.

“We do not want to get into a situation where we are fleeing, the kind of thing that we saw in Afghanistan,” he told Reuters.

Oryem said Kenya accepted the drawdown requested by the U.S. and EU but that the concerns of countries with forces in Somalia should be heard.

Kenyan President William Ruto told reporters in Washington last month that a withdrawal that did not account for conditions on the ground would mean “the terrorists will take over Somalia.”

In response to questions, an EU spokesperson said it was focused on building domestic security capacities and supported in principle a Somali government proposal for a new mission that would have a reduced size and scope.

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said the force should be large enough to prevent a security vacuum. Washington has supported all requests submitted by the AU to the U.N. Security Council to modify the drawdown timeline, the spokesperson said. In response to a question about Ethiopian forces, the spokesperson said it was critical to avoid security gaps or unnecessary expenses “incurred by swapping out existing troop contributors.”

Setbacks: Two years ago, an army offensive in central Somalia initially seized large swathes of territory from al Shabaab.

In August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed declared his intention to “eliminate” the powerful al Qaeda offshoot within five months.