Daily Times

World leaders gathered in Switzerland on June 16th for the second day of a major peace conference, aiming to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and address the war’s human cost. Over 90 countries and 50 heads of state, including India, Turkey, and Hungary, attended. Russia was not invited, and China chose not to attend. In response to the G-7 Summit and the Peace Conference, Russia employed a dual strategy: a high-intensity military drill showcasing nuclear capabilities and a proposal for negotiations with Ukraine.

During the G-7 meeting in Italy (June 13-15), two significant decisions were made: providing $50 billion in loans to Kyiv, backed by $322 billion of frozen Russian central bank assets, and permitting Ukraine to use Western weapons to attack inside Russia, aiming to support Ukraine and intensify pressure on Russia.

At the end of the two-day diplomatic summit in Switzerland (June 16), the final communique called for the exchange of captured soldiers and the return of deported Ukrainian children, emphasizing dialogue. However, Saudi Arabia, India, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, and the UAE did not agree, and Moscow dismissed the summit as “absurd” and pointless.

To safeguard its long-term interests, Pakistan should reduce its dependency on Russia and Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin responded to both the G-7 and Peace Summit with his strategic actions. On June 12, 2024, he ordered drills for the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons from the northern Leningrad military district, which borders NATO members Norway, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, covering almost all of Russia’s European border from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea. The drills included training with operational-tactical missile systems, sea-based cruise missiles, and Belarusian troops to demonstrate Russia’s readiness and signal severe consequences for continued Western support of Ukraine.

The drills included special training ammunition for operational-tactical missile systems and sea-based cruise missiles with mock warheads, involving Belarusian troops in tactical nuclear weapons exercises. Russia, with about 1,558 non-strategic nuclear warheads, each around 70-75 kilotons-five times the size of the Hiroshima bomb-aimed to signal the severe consequences of Western support for Ukraine.

On June 13, 2024, amidst the G-7 and Peace Summit, President Putin proposed a six-point peace plan aimed at de-escalation and long-term stability. He promised to order an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine and begin peace negotiations if Kyiv and its Western allies agree to a series of conditions. These include Ukraine withdrawing all of its troops from the four Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhya; the West lifting all sanctions imposed on Moscow; and Kyiv dropping its NATO membership bid.

According to this plan, an immediate ceasefire agreement would halt hostilities, creating a conducive environment for peace talks. Second, a gradual withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied territories would reduce military confrontation, though it requires significant trust and verification. Third, deploying international peacekeeping forces would oversee the ceasefire and troop withdrawals, adding accountability but necessitating cooperation and impartiality.

The plan also calls for comprehensive political dialogue involving Ukraine, Russia, NATO, and the G-7 to address underlying issues, demanding substantial diplomatic efforts. An international fund for reconstructing war-torn areas in Ukraine would support economic recovery, fostering stability but needing careful management.

Finally, ensuring Ukraine’s neutral status addresses Russia’s security concerns while providing security guarantees for Ukraine, although this may face resistance from Ukrainian nationalists and Western allies.

Ukraine and its Western allies reacted with scepticism and criticism towards the Russian President’s peace proposal. Ukrainian officials dismissed the plan as hypocritical, pointing out ongoing Russian military actions in Ukraine and accusing Russia of using diplomacy as a guise while continuing aggressive operations. Western allies echoed these sentiments, expressing doubts about Russia’s sincerity in seeking peace and emphasizing the need for Russia to demonstrate genuine commitment by ceasing hostilities and withdrawing troops from occupied territories. The proposal was seen as insufficient and lacking credibility given the current circumstances.

Ukraine and its Western allies aim to end the war by ensuring a complete withdrawal of Russian troops and the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders. They seek accountability for war crimes through international mechanisms and require robust security guarantees to prevent future aggression. Western allies support this plan with continuous military aid, intensified economic sanctions on Russia, diplomatic pressure for global isolation of Russia, and substantial financial aid for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and economic recovery. This comprehensive strategy aims to secure Ukraine’s sovereignty and establish durable peace.

Predictions for the Russia-Ukraine war, given the current dynamics, include a prolonged stalemate with significant humanitarian and economic costs, potential escalation with more severe tactics from Russia and intensified countermeasures from Ukraine and its allies, or a negotiated settlement despite mutual distrust and differing peace conditions. There’s also a risk of the conflict internationalizing, drawing in more direct involvement from NATO and other countries, which could escalate into a broader regional or global conflict. The situation remains fluid, influenced by ongoing diplomatic, military, and economic actions.

If the war prolongs this would adversely impact the entire globe and the weak economies like Pakistan in particular. Pakistan depends on Ukraine for significant agricultural imports like wheat and sunflower oil and has acquired military hardware from Ukraine, including tanks and aircraft engines. From Russia, Pakistan is exploring natural gas imports, and potential crude oil deals, and relies on Russian raw materials such as metals and fertilizers, along with investment in energy and infrastructure projects. To navigate the geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Pakistan must maintain balanced diplomatic relations to ensure continued access to these critical imports and technologies.

To safeguard its long-term interests, Pakistan should reduce its dependency on Russia and Ukraine. It should diversify its suppliers of grain and edible oils by sourcing from countries like Canada, Australia, and Argentina while enhancing domestic agricultural production. In defence, Pakistan can establish procurement agreements with China, Turkey, and European nations and invest in local manufacturing capabilities. For energy supplies, accelerating renewable energy projects and exploring imports from the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa are crucial. Broadening trade networks for raw materials and boosting local industrial production will also enhance resilience and stability amidst prolonged geopolitical conflicts.

The writer is a former press secretary to the president; former press minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France and former MD (SRBC).