Daily Times

In an era of emerging and disruptive technology, an air strategy based on ground strikes and air intercepts may not be sufficient to achieve air superiority without which the land forces will not be able to make a viable move. Moreover, it is a foregone conclusion that the next war would be led by the air forces of the arch-rivals, India and Pakistan.

India certainly has an upper hand on the acquisition and deployment of newer technologies which will not only provide real-time intelligence but also real-time targeting information to the Indian Air Force (IAF). This capability enhancement has been further augmented since the signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA).

The signing of BECA on October 27, 2020, marked the culmination of long-drawn negotiations between India and the United States spanning over some 18 years. It’s a very comprehensive agreement covering almost all the facets of military cooperation, “-from interoperability to intelligence-sharing and joint defense research to production of weapons.” The specific agreements include the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA); Logistic Support Agreement (LSA); Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Intelligence (BECA).

The PAF, which is preparing itself against a much larger and wealthier adversary, with its meager resources, must do what its adversary cannot even imagine.

The state-of-the-art logistics and communication support from the US will perhaps give India an edge on the battlefield due to high-quality GPS aimed at improving the accuracy of its automated systems and other guided weapons including missiles and armed drones. On the civil side also, geospatial intelligence will provide the much-needed information to effectively deal with natural disasters.

There is no denying that IAF feels more confident with assured intelligence and communication support from the US, however, its rival Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has also been quietly modernizing itself to meet future challenges. The establishment of the National Aerospace Science & Technology Parks (NASTP) has been a game-changer in the research and development of emerging and disruptive technologies to meet future challenges.

The organization adopts the vision of the incumbent Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber which outlines that “Make NASTP One of the best Aerospace, Cyber, IT, AI, and computing Clusters in the world and transform the national landscape with design, R&D, and innovation centers for emerging and disruptive products and technologies.”

To fulfill the stated vision, PAF has embarked upon reorganizing itself within the available means to respond to IAF designs that are based on the employment of emerging and disruptive technologies in any future engagement. However, at this stage what is important for the PAF is to reorientate its strategy than its organizational infrastructure only.

Therefore, I am proposing an air strategy for the debate at the relevant forums and its adoption, if applicable. The proposed strategy is acronymized as DIP. Let me explain. It simply stands for Disruption, Interpretation, and Prediction.

To begin with, PAF must acquire technology and master the techniques necessary to disrupt IAF’s communication to develop an order of battle. For this purpose, PAF would need to invest in all domains of intelligence and surveillance, HUMINT, COMMINT, ELINT, CyberInt, AI, etc.

Once the communication disruption is achieved, PAF needs to develop expertise in its interpretation. It is necessary to mention that at times a lot of information is available on the adversary but the user is unable to correctly interpret the same and thus loses the advantage of the available information.

Next comes the most difficult part which relates to predicting the adversary’s most probable actions. The same can be done using artificial intelligence (AI), as well as evaluation of the enemy’s strategic culture. Also, it can be evaluated through this author’s C-7 Model (published in NUST Journal of International Peace & Stability, 2024) about calculating the Deterrent Value (DV).

In my opinion, if PAF can formulate its strategy based on DIP (Disruption, Interpretation, and Prediction), it will be able to effectively deal with the IAF which is feeling emboldened after the signing and support of the US under BECA. It is necessary to remember Sun Tzu’s golden precepts that acme of skill lies in winning the war without fighting. The PAF, which is preparing itself against a much larger and wealthier adversary, with its meager resources, must do what its adversary cannot even imagine, both in the air and on the ground. Likewise, appear weak when strong and praise the enemy’s arrogance.

However, the proposed strategy of DIP must be debated and improved, if necessary, before it is considered part of any future strategy of the PAF. I am confident that PAF will prove equal to the task, like always, In Sha Allah.

The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”