Daily Times

How long will the winter of our nuclear discontent last with India? Tactical nuclear weapons that range from 60 to 120 kilometres are being created for service by India and Pakistan. Namely, Al Nasr in Pakistan and Prohar in India. Pakistan is going for tactical nukes in order to thwart the Indian Cold war threat. India is deploying these for no apparent reason other than keeping up with the nuclear Joneses. Al Nasr and Prohar of Pakistan and India respectively sit alarming close to each other as the latest displays in the sub continental pantheon of nuclear hubris. India of course started the nuclear race in 1974 when the Smiling Buddha exploded in the deserts of Rajasthan debunking the myth of Hindu pacifism.

They packaged it into a neat threat designed to convince an indulgent USA and a complacent Europe that the nuclear capability was a legitimate Indian defence response to Chinese threats. Nothing could be further from the truth. It was in actuality an expression of Indian intent to be treated as a respectable member of the global nuclear arms club. India had therefore crossed the nuclear rubicon ushering in an arms race that today threatens the survival of 1.5 billion inhabitants of the two countries. Pakistan was dismembered from East Pakistan by India through active abetment of insurgency and military aggression. Furthermore, it has always been fearful because of the threat of its nuclear adversary.

The international institutions and allies did little to assuage those fears either due to broken commitments or sheer indifference. The last straw was the provocative nuclear testing by India in 1998 which was reciprocated by a fearful Pakistan through its own tests. Pakistan was fully justified in its decision to test its own nuclear arsenal through the turn of events.

The vastly superior conventional armed forces suddenly appeared unusable despite heavy spending on them. With 100% of its mechanized and armoured combat potential deployed against Pakistan in Punjab, Bahawalpur and Rajasthan Indian military planners felt threatened as Pakistan prepared its nuclear arsenal.  Especially as Pakistan declared “First Strike” in the event of Indian aggression violating Pakistan’s borders. The ambiguity built in the nuclear doctrine purposely kept the nuclear thresholds vague to dissuade India from attacking Pakistani territory.

The atmosphere of tumult soon intervened in the shape of Kargil conflict that has put question marks on the efficacy of nuclear deterrence

Pakistan’s nuclear thresholds kept the Indians on tenterhooks leaving their planners puzzled regarding Pakistan’s response. India and Pakistan achieved some nuclear uniformity with each side possessing around 80 to 120 weapons. Following this a kind of strategic stability prevailed. The atmosphere of tumult however soon intervened in the shape of Kargil conflict that put question marks on the efficacy of nuclear deterrence. The hawkish Indian military planners sensed an opportunity wherein they started looking for a justification for a conventional war under to punish a defiant Pakistan.

The objective was to inflict territorial losses and destroy Pakistani forces remaining below the Pakistani nuclear thresholds. The concept though written and discussed however was never seriously put in practice. The Indian political leadership was also loathed to sanction such a concept that seceded so much control to the armed forces at the expense of close civilian oversight. The concept however evoked a serious response from Pakistan where the armed forces came up with a counter Cold Start based on forward defence, early employment of reserves, better surveillance, obstacle planning, and repositioning of logistics all designed to snuff out Indian penetrations in early stages.  The counter response to the Cold Start was effective enough for the Indians to abandon it.

It was here however that another dimension cropped up embroiling both countries in another costly nuclear spiral, this time at a tactical level.

In order to further emasculate the Indian Cold Start potential Pakistan’s Strategic Forces also came up with an antidote in the shape of battlefield nuclear weapons signalling the zero tolerance intent of Pakistan’s armed forces for any kind of conventional showdown under nuclear overhang. It was a clear signalling of resolve not to allow a breach of Pakistan’s carefully nurtured nuclear deterrence even at the tactical level.

The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST; e mail rwjanj@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, August 26^th 2017.