Daily Times

Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is all set to carry out a referendum on Kurdistan independence, thus closing a circle which was opened 56 years earlier in the “September revolution” against the Iraqi central government, headed by Abd al-KarimQassim.

The feeling of attaining full independence is getting stronger by each passing day in Kurdish areas. Cities, where the Kurdish flag flutters, are increasing. Road signs, street and store names, as well as the local media, are lettered in Kurdish, the official government language. Through a referendum, KRG will join other states and political entities to employ this standard procedure. Usually a declaration of independence needs to be preceded by a referendum – without establishing the will of the people of Kurdistan on the issue, KRG leaders can hardly claim a popular mandate for such a move.

Most recently independent states, such as South Sudan, held referendums first. However, many Iraqi politicians and groups are declaring this referendum unconstitutional. As the experience in Yugoslavia showed, when ethnic or religious cleavages explode, the most effective path to peace may as well be separation. A Kurdish state has a real chance of thriving as independent Kurdistan could manage to combine natural-resource wealth with a tradition of stable and pragmatic governance, thereby creating a sustainable democracy. This would amount to a win for pro-Western liberal forces in the Middle East.

Let’s have a look at the factors, which can make independent Kurdistan a success story in the region:

Strong Security Apparatus- The Peshmerga armed forces of KRG are a very effective and well-trained Kurdish military forces that defend Kurdistan very well. When Iraqi military melted away after putting up only minimal resistance to ISIS in 2014 it was only Peshmerga which stopped the expansion of IS and even rolled it back. Peshmerga has decades of experience warring against powerful opponents such as, the once very strong elite force of Saddam Hussein, Republican Guards. Peshmerga is very much capable of defending the sovereignty of independent Kurdistan.

Vibrant Economy- KRG now exports 600,000 barrels of oil per day, with up to a million per day on the horizon, with existing and pending deals with large multinational oil companies. The KRG’s budget deficit has thus shrunk 99%, from $4 billion in 2013 to just $63 million in 2016. Together with efforts to boost agriculture (Kurdistan is nearly self-sufficient for food now), manufacturing and private sector in general, the future prospects of the region look better than that of many states.

Unity of Political Parties on Independence- All leading parties of Kurdistan like Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Gorran Party supports independence of Kurdistan wholeheartedly. Gorran and the Komal Islamic Group, support the referendum and independence however they do have some reservations about its timing and the way it will be conducted.

A Kurdish state has a real chance of thriving as independent Kurdistan could manage to combine natural-resource wealth with a tradition of stable and pragmatic governance, thereby creating a sustainable democracy

Weak Baghdad- The Iraqi government in Baghdad will not be able to stop the Kurds as it lacks required military strength. Iraqi army has deep structural problems like large scale desertation, widespread corruption, and low morale. In this case Baghdad can’t afford to start any military campaign against Kurds. Even the chances of outside military interventions are slim as Syria is weak, and Iran and Turkey are occupied on other fronts.

In the past Kurds were considered a destabilizing element for the Middle East, now the world has come to realize their important contribution in stabilizing the region and fighting radical Islamists. The Kurds tried to work with Iraq after 2003 on the condition of federalism and a binational Iraq of equals with minority rights, but that hope has faded.

Kurds are entitled to seek independence to enhance their secular and more progressive society as well as better relations with all their neighbours. Given how Kurds have been treated in the countries in which they live, it’s no surprise that they have demanded the right to govern themselves and are willing to fight for it. So, it’s the high time that the international community catch up with Kurdish desires and help Kurds build stable democratic institutions, instead of taking the side of those who want to rule over the Kurds. The West should respect the yearning of disenfranchised and oppressed people beginning with the Kurds.

Time has come for first redrawing of the Middle East map since the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement, which sliced up the Ottoman Empire’s possessions into nation states. But it is still to be seen how Kurdistan chooses to separate from Iraq. Like will the Kurds separate from Iraq by declaring independence in one bold stroke, or do it through negotiations with the central government in Baghdad for an amicable separation? It will be in interest of both of them that the separation happens through negotiations in this scenario both can have key official links like a shared defence system and foreign policies, and hydrocarbons production that will benefit both.

The writer is a columnist for Middle East and Afghan-Pak region and Editor of geo-political news agency Views around can be reached at manishraiva@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, August 29^th 2017.