Daily Times

The US may try to use sanctions against Pakistan however there is no guarantee of their success. China and Russia have already slammed Trump’s South Asia policy and declared that the world needs to recognises Pakistan’s efforts and sacrifices in the war against terror

Pakistan and US have always enjoyed a transactional relationship but what remains missing in these seventy years is a strategic partnership. The US has always viewed Pakistan from a security lens whereas governments in Pakistan have looked towards the US for internal and external legitimacy. Throughout their relationship, Pakistan and the US have actively cooperated three times in bilateral relations and all three times there they have been major issues which brought both states into an uncomfortable position. The first incident was during the Cold War from 1950 to 1960, when the US needed Pakistan as an ally against the Soviet Union and Pakistan needed an ally against India. However, an issue cropped up as the US did not want to convey any sense of animosity towards India, whilst needing Pakistan as an ally. The second time was during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the US needed Pakistan’s cooperation on Afghanistan to fight the Soviet Union. Pakistan cooperated, but soon the US was aggrieved at Pakistan’s covert nuclear bomb plans. More recently, the US need’s Pakistan’s cooperation in the war against terror and Pakistan has been cooperating since 9/11 but this time the irritant is the Taliban.

Since Trump announced his long expected policy on South Asia, there has been much debate on both sides. As Generals have the authority to advise the President, the State Department feels annoyed and ignored from the South Asia policy. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson gave the impression that Pakistan will lose its status of privileged military ally. It is likely that Pakistan and the US will both lose influence over each other if the US considers this option. Trump called Pakistan an ‘agent of chaos’ which the administration in Islamabad and Generals in Rawalpindi took very seriously. In reply, they conveyed a strong signal of defiance in the National Security Committee’s meeting on the 24th of August to President Trump’s allegations.

The $64,000 Question is will the US sanction Pakistan this time on the Haqqani Network issue even though Pakistan has taken actions against it. Options with Washington this time are not as open as they had been back in 1990s or before. Pakistanis as whole weren’t as aware of Pakistan-US relations, but now, the public has expressed consternation regarding Donald Trump’s policy on South Asia.

The US has too much to lose if it chooses to put sanctions against Pakistan. There is likely to be huge pressure from within the US as they have doled out billions of dollars in Afghanistan and lost many of their armed forces too.

Pakistan can approach more reliable forms of support such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in case sanctions are slammed on it

Meanwhile after 9/11, the US administration realized that sanctioning Pakistan after the end of the Cold War was not a wise step. The US may try to use sanctions against Pakistan, however, there is no guarantee of their success. China and Russia have already slammed Trump’s South Asia policy and declared that the world needs to recognize Pakistan’s efforts and sacrifices in the war against terror. Secondly, the US may use institutional power against Pakistan like IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and WTO so that Pakistan may lose financial incentives and could be sanctioned. However, Pakistan can approach more reliable forms of support such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which has a huge potential to accommodate Pakistan if this callous attitude lingers in the US. The third way to deal with Pakistan which seems more likely, is the sanctioning of individuals and companies which are allegedly dealing with General Pasha.

Two third of US sanctions have not worked historically even with its big military machinations and huge control on global institutions. Sanctions on Pakistan are not likely not work this time. Society, opposition parties, and the media are there to support the government in case of difficulties.

Sanctions are not an option and could be counterproductive for both Pakistan and the US. Pakistan and US need to sit together and diplomats should be given a role to sort out this crisis. Generals have had enough time to bring peace in Afghanistan, its time all diplomatic tools are put on the table for peace in Afghanistan. Rather than bringing crises in Islamabad, the US should decide to sort them out in Kabul.

The writer is a Strategic and Political analyst. He teaches international politics in NUML Islamabad

Published in Daily Times, August 29^th 2017.