Daily Times

Mounting political and strategic relationships among Pakistan and India have given rise to a new pattern of heated interactions involving global powers. Analyzing India’s growing quest for multilateral export control regimes, it can be noted that India has a unique history of relationships with export control cartels. India is now seeking legal membership into nuclear export control groups. It is certain that membership into such groups will give India a distinct advantage in participating in the management of global commerce in advanced technology.

The four multilateral export controls regimes, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), the Australia Group, and the Wassenaar Arrangement, have emerged as the oldest multilateral bodies for export controls and are one of the leading forums of the global export controls system especially in contemporary geo-politics. Although these are informal groups with a small number of member countries, they derive their importance from the nature of their membership. Most of the major suppliers of high technology or sensitive technology — usually dual in nature — are members of these regimes.

In recent years, India is undoubtedly trying to integrate itself quickly within these regimes by playing politics. However, it is quite obvious that it would face roadblocks in its integration with the existing system. A somewhat deeper analysis indicates that the old non-proliferation order and actors are slowly reconciling to India’s integration with the global export controls system. India’s membership in the four multilateral export controls regimes questions the credibility and efficacy of the global system including the non-proliferation regime.

Membership of these groups will give India a distinct advantage when participating in the management of global commerce in advanced technology

India has claimed that it has a spotless non — proliferation record and that it should be included in nuclear mainstream countries by also making it part of the NSG. However, it seems India’s non-proliferation record is not as clean as it would have us believe. A lot has been written about India’s first nuclear test in post-nuclear supplier’s group debates. That test spurred the United States and several other countries to create the Nuclear Suppliers Group to more vigilantly restrict and monitor global nuclear trade.

Since India’s nuclear program largely is plutonium based, its uranium reserves are demonstrated to be low for its civil nuclear usageand military usage. The trend of nuclear deals with India — set largely by the US — has and will further overwhelm India with the uranium reserves. India will not only benefit from its civil nuclear program out of it but will also keep an extensive amount of uranium for its bourgeoning nuclear weapons program. The assistance to India has made it an aspirant to become a South Asian nuclear giant. It also expects to be recognised as a world’s rightful nuclear power.

India, right after getting the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) membership, decided to work on enhancing its Brahmos missile ranges. Analytically, it could be assessed that India is doing this after getting the MTCR membership just within days, what would India do if its dream of getting NSG membership becomes reality. It would, for sure, lead the way for enhancing its uranium reserves for military usage. Analytically, China stonewalled India’s entry into the NSG at the recent June plenary as it has an effect on it being the active member of the group but it could not stall India’s membership to the MTCR as it was not a permanent member.

Nevertheless, India is undoubtedly spending more and more on developing its tremendous firepower and strike capabilities. This is alarming for the world in general and the region in particular as it could lead to a destabilising impact on South Asia. Since India is neither party to the NPT nor has it been accepted fully it safeguards its nuclear trade and there should not be any chance of including India into the hub of civil nuclear trade, especiallywithin the multilateral export control regimes. If done so, the purpose of all the regimes to aid non-proliferation efforts would be futile.

The writer is working as a Research Associate at the Strategic Vision Institute, an Islamabad based think tank. She has been a Visiting Fellow at the Stimson Center, Washington DC. She can be reached at beenishaltaf7@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, August 30^th 2017.