Daily Times

In the ever-evolving landscape of global security, the role of advanced missile systems in shaping military capabilities and postures cannot be overstated. Recently, the Armed Forces of Pakistan attained a significant milestone by successfully test-firing the Fatah-II missile, a domestically developed guided Multi-launch Rocket System (MLRS), on 27 December 2023. The rocket seeks to broaden Pakistan’s conventional targeting capabilities by carrying out precise attacks deep within the adversary’s territory against a diverse range of targets through numerous variants of traditional payloads. This development indicates groundbreaking progress for the country’s arsenal, accentuating Pakistan’s dedication to enhancing strategic precision and maintaining a credible conventional defence posture.

Fatah-II boasts cutting-edge avionics, a sophisticated navigation system, and a unique flight trajectory. Moreover, The Low Radar Cross-section (RCS) of the rocket minimises the probability of interception. Throughout its trajectory, the rocket can manoeuvre and adjust to its target, ensuring accuracy. According to information from GIDS, Fatah-II has a range capability of hitting targets with a 400 kilometers radius. Guided to its target by an upgraded inertial navigation system (INS) that incorporates satellite navigation, Fatah-II maintains a Circular Error Probable (CEP) of less than 50 metres at its maximum range.

The rocket seeks to broaden Pakistan’s conventional targeting capabilities.

The successful integration of Fatah-II rockets into Pakistan’s arsenal represents a significant enhancement to its offensive capabilities, reshaping regional dynamics and the military balance in the region. India’s current military strategy emphasises dynamic response tactics aimed at enhancing its conventional strength while engaging in operations below the threshold of all-out war. Moreover, India’s strategic efforts to establish Integrated Theatre Commands (ITC) indicate a significant step towards enhancing military capabilities. Upon implementation, this initiative could enable the Indian military to effectively employ the army’s Integrated Battle Groups (IBG) along the Pakistan border in conjunction with Indian Air Force (IAF) assets. The execution of such strategic maneuvers may have implications for Pakistan’s national security.

The introduction of Fatah-II rockets allows Pakistan to enhance its conventional capabilities and effectively counter such efforts, especially considering India’s currently lack an effective interceptive capability to this development. By promoting the use of land interdiction techniques, the Fatah-II system is geared towards impeding, disrupting, and neutralizing Indian Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) as they advance towards Pakistan’s borders. Consequently, the Fatah-II missile system augments Pakistan’s traditional strike capabilities, marking the first instance where the conventional artillery weapons of Pakistan may effectively reach Indian military outposts, munitions depots, central logistics, and air bases. By and large, Fatah-II represents an ideal conventional counterforce weapon in the arsenal of the Pakistan Army for this purpose.

The Fatah-II system not only serves as a formidable deterrent against India, but it also offers versatile operational utility, marking a significant milestone in Pakistan’s offense landscape. First, compared to more complex missile systems, the production cost of Fatah-II is low. The design of the rocket allows for cost savings at various stages of manufacturing, assembly, and maintenance. Similarly, the local production of the Fatah II rockets not only stimulates the domestic defence industry but also keeps the cost lower by avoiding markups associated with importing similar systems from other countries. Additionally, Fatah-II’s sensor-to-shooter reaction time is considerably shorter, which makes it a more desirable option for operational commanders, allowing them to engage with targets more rapidly, thereby increasing the overall efficiency of the combat.

Second, the extended range of new surface-to-surface missiles enables Pakistan to eradicate the strategic long-range air defence systems positioned in the enemy’s hinterland. The Fatah-II illustrates its capability to counter advanced air defence systems. For example, it can effectively neutralise static targets such as the S-400 missile system by executing saturation attacks, which involve a combination of Fatah-II projectiles, cruise missiles, loitering munitions, and the Fatah-I Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS). The deployment of Fatah-II rockets would enable Pakistan to inundate enemy’s operations by effectively overwhelming its air defenses through maximum target saturation. Therefore, this advancement represents a significant leap forward and a unique addition to the country’s conventional arsenal.

All in all, Pakistan’s persistent drive for progress in missile technology, apparent in ongoing initiatives, reflects its steadfast commitment to upholding a credible conventional deterrence posture and strategic stability in the South Asian region and beyond. This progress will bolster Pakistan’s strategic efforts to develop a resilient and adaptable military capability, enabling precise strikes across various distances and with a variety of munitions. Moreover, it signifies a significant stride in strengthening the nation’s terrestrial strike capabilities, serving as a deterrent against Indian adventurism while demonstrating Pakistan’s indigenous technological capabilities on the global platform.

The writer is a researcher at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore. She can be reached at info@casslhr.com