Daily Times

Pakistan finds itself once again at a critical juncture, grappling with the complex dynamics of managing its relations with Afghanistan while simultaneously combating the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its faction groups. The recent attack on a military installation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) by the Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction of the TTP serves as a stark reminder of the persistent threat posed by militant organizations operating across Pakistan’s borders. In response to this brazen assault, Pakistan undertook a retaliatory strike targeting TTP militants inside Afghanistan, emphasizing the intricate challenges and strategic imperatives that continue to confront Pakistan.

This latest escalation underscores the delicate balancing act Pakistan must navigate in its efforts to secure its borders, maintain regional stability, and counter the scourge of terrorism. Caught in the crosscurrents of geopolitical competitions, internal strife, and transnational terrorism, Pakistan confronts a multifaceted security landscape that demands astute diplomacy, robust counterterrorism measures, and a renewed and nuanced understanding of regional dynamics for peace and prosperity.

Caught in the crosscurrents of geopolitical competitions, internal strife and transnational terrorism, Pakistan confronts a multifaceted security landscape that demands astute diplomacy.

Despite Pakistan’s long and hard battle against the TTP and its affiliate groups that began in the 2000s, the war on terror for Pakistan has not concluded. On the other hand, Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan remains equally troubled. Border disputes, refugee influxes, and differing strategic interests have strained bilateral ties, resulting in continued challenges for Pakistan. With frequent border skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the primary source of tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan is the issue of cross-border militancy.

Pakistan, for the most part, had successfully cleared its territory from major Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts through large-scale military operations and later through targeted intelligence-based operations within the country. These efforts left the TTP stranded in the rugged border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. However, the dynamics shifted dramatically with the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Sharing a similar extremist ideology, the TTP found renewed strength and sanctuary under the Afghan Taliban’s regime. This resurgence posed a formidable challenge to Pakistan’s security apparatus. In response, Pakistani leadership, under Prime Minister Imran Khan, opted for a non-violent approach towards the TTP, considering that the group was at its lowest ebb in terms of capability and morale to confront the state. Initiating a reconciliation process, Pakistan aimed to bring disillusioned TTP militants back into the fold of mainstream society. Despite these efforts, attacks attributed to the TTP continued to plague Pakistan, reaching a peak between the years 2022 and 2023. This resurgence highlighted the resilience of the TTP and the complex challenges inherent in combating militant groups with cross-border sanctuaries and support networks but also how the environment was not yet conducive for any negotiations.

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan signifies a formidable challenge, morphing from a hard-core militant entity into a full-fledged terrorist organization, boasting years of combat experience and an intricate criminal network. Its existence has been exploited by rival states as a surrogate to advance broader geopolitical agendas, propagating a state of perpetual conflict within and on the borders of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Historically, the TTP has cynically leveraged negotiation periods with Pakistan as opportunities to regroup, fortify its ranks, and meticulously plan future acts of violence against Pakistani security forces and civilians alike. These interludes have served as strategic retreats, allowing the TTP to evade pressure by relocating to safer havens within Afghanistan, often with tacit support from elements within the Taliban. The failure of reconciliation talks with the TTP can be attributed to a fundamental lack of mutual trust and shared interests. While Pakistan may have harboured aspirations of conflict transformation through negotiations, such efforts clashed starkly with the entrenched ideology of the TTP. Presently, the TTP stands as a contentious issue exacerbating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Islamabad’s initial expectation that the Taliban’s ascendance would lead to the eradication of the TTP has proven to be a significant miscalculation, straining bilateral relations between the two neighbouring nations to a precarious extent.

Pakistan’s strikes inside Afghanistan following the recent attack by TTP have had mixed reactions from all quarters, posing questions on the necessity of the counterstrike.

Paradoxically, retaliatory strikes can sometimes prevent further escalation by demonstrating that the defending party is willing to respond proportionately rather than escalate the conflict further. This can encourage the other to consider the potential costs of further aggression and seek alternative means of resolving the dispute, restoring balance, and signalling resolve. Given Afghanistan’s reassurances time and again to Pakistan and now its failure to curb TTP to use its soil against Pakistan, the integral commitment to bilateral security cooperation with Pakistan has been violated.

The continued existence of TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan not only undermines Pakistan’s security but also poses a threat to Afghanistan itself which sits on the brink of another civil war based on ethnicity and the issue of Durand Line with Pakistan. Without concerted efforts to address this issue, Afghanistan risks further alienating Pakistan, potentially leading to a breakdown in bilateral relations and undermining broader efforts for regional cooperation and economic integration in months to come. The TTP’s links to other militant groups operating in both countries, including ISKP, and BLA raise concerns about the potential for increased terrorism and the spread of radical ideologies. By allowing TTP to operate with impunity, Afghanistan risks becoming a haven for extremists and a breeding ground for future terrorist attacks once again.

Despite receiving significant aid and support from Pakistan, Afghanistan’s inability to tackle the TTP raises questions about its commitment to combating terrorism and promoting peace and stability in the region.

The failure to tackle the TTP by Afghanistan carries significant implications for regional security, bilateral relations with Pakistan, and Afghanistan’s standing in the international community. Urgent action is needed to address this challenge, including enhanced security cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, mutually targeted military operations against TTP sanctuaries, and efforts to address the underlying ethnic divide and other external factors driving terrorism in the region. This can only be achieved through a comprehensive and coordinated approach by the civil and military institutions of Pakistan that understand the implications of having a dual front with Afghanistan.

The writer is an independent media and foreign policy analyst. She tweets @MsAishaK.