Daily Times

Pakistan has encountered the most serious of consequences due to the war in Afghanistan over last few decades – with repercussions to its political landscape to its security domain,to its socio-economic outlook and even to environmental aspects.

From hosting millions of refugees to being a major victim of terrorism, the cumulative impact has been colossal, resulting in an adverse overall growth rate in all major sectors of the economy. Normal economic and trading activities were disrupted;leading to higher costs of doing business – comprising of cost of insurance, among other costs- and substantial deferrals in meeting export orders around the world.As an outcome, Pakistani goods gradually lost their market share to their competitors. Economic growth as well could not pick up as planned during the last decade. The country continues to be the target of terrorism, which also includes foreign-sponsored terrorism from its immediate neighbourhood.

Pakistan’s economic losses as a result of the war against terror far exceed the amount of aid received from the United States. A reputed study states that, “if US civilian assistance is completely withdrawn, it will only have an impact of 0.14 percent on Pakistan’s GDP growth”

A substantial portion of precious national resources, both in personnel and material, had to be diverted to address the security challenges as well as to repair the damaged infrastructure during the last many years.In addition to economic losses, cross-border terrorism in Pakistan has inflicted untold human suffering: indiscriminate and brutal terrorist attacks have taken place against the civilian population. More than 70,000 civilians have succumbed to this War on Terror, in addition to 7,000 personnel of the armed forces.

Ever since Pakistan became a frontline ally of the US-led alliance in the war against terror after 9/11 16 years ago, its economy has suffered a whopping $123.1 billion on account of loss of lives and economic opportunities, and damage to the country’s infrastructure.As Pakistan’s current GDP volume is $304 billion, this huge loss is 41 percent of the total economic size of the country. This shows that two-fifths of the economy not only went in thin air: it further damaged the possibilities and potentials of the Pakistan’s economic growth.

On US aid to Pakistan; it is worth mentioning that the country’s economic losses as a result of the war against terror far exceed the amount of aid received from the United States. The total aid Pakistan has received during these years amounts to just $30 billion – which is not even enough to cover the bill for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supplies over the period. A study, conducted by Shahid Javed Burki for the Woodrow Wilson Centre, states that: “[i]f US civilian assistance is completely withdrawn, it will only have an impact of 0.14 percent on Pakistan’s GDP growth.”

Calculations were based on gross aid, 40 percent of which goes to American ‘consultants’. These are conservative estimates compared with how US aid is being spent in Iraq and Afghanistan, where more than 60 percent of the money goes to with American ‘contractors’ and ‘consultants’. With that, 25 percent is wasted on administrative expenses.

Former State Bank Governor Ishrat Husain says that American aid does not help the government’s precarious fiscal situation in any meaningful way. Only “12-15 percent of the total amount is channelled for budgetary support. Assuming that the whole $3 billion [per annum] in economic and military aid is disbursed fully, this accounts for less than seven percent of the total foreign exchange earnings of the country… The increase in export revenues and remittances in the current year was almost twice that amount.”

With losses of such magnitude, continued US demands of ‘do more’ seem farfetched. It is beyond comprehension that a country which has suffered losses of more than 70,000 human lives in its fight against terrorism is being blamed of playing a double game.Had there been any double game, why would Pakistan have suffered gigantic human and economic losses? Recently, the international community has also acknowledged Pakistan’s success in fight against terrorism, and has appreciated Pakistan’s sacrifices to make the world a safer place.

What prompted President Trump to repeat USA’s old clichéd narrative against Islamabad?It seems to be American anxiousness over Pakistan’s alliances with China, Iran, Turkey, and warming up of relations with Russia. This not only plays against US hegemony in the world – and also the region – but also undermines India’s position (as the new main US ally) in the region.

Therefore, President Trump is apparently investing more in exacerbating security crises while trying to make Pakistan a scapegoat: this will not only ensure US presence in the region, but will also keep the regional stability/security at a stalemate.

Saddam Hussein is a Research Fellow at Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Islamabad, while pursuing his M.Phil. in Public Policy from School of Public Policy, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad

Published in Daily Times, September 9^th 2017.