Daily Times

Why and how was US President Trump left with no choice but to put all the blame on others — especially Pakistan? Why does neither Afghanistan nor America allow Pakistan to fence and manage the Pak-Afghan border?

Why is it that whenever Pakistan launches a military operation in the border region, American and Afghan forces pull back providing militants with strategic depth? And last but not the least — why is there still a Taliban’s office in Qatar? There has been a lot of commentary in Pakistan, flanked by emotions of being deceived and betrayed, over Trump’s new strategy. Besides the resentful feelings and sentiments of the people of Pakistan there is a serious need to review the approach towards Afghanistan.

The men who are dominating Trump administration and have encircled him are either warriors or those seriously critical of US policy for Afghanistan. For instance, White House Chief of Staff, retired General John Kelly, is among those who want a renewed approach towards Afghanistan.

General Kelly has critical memories associated with the war as he lost his son, Lt Robert Kelly due to the war in Afghanistan. Similarly, Secretary of Defence retired General James Mattis aka. ‘mad dog’ has been vocal in criticising the Afghan policy. Trump’s serving military advisor General Joseph Dunford was also stationed at Afghanistan; Trump’s National Security Advisor Lt General HR McMaster is a war veteran and has served in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Quite interestingly, McMaster has over shadowed the rest of the administration and was able to remove people like Steve Bannon from the White House. Bannon previously served as the White House Chief Strategist.

Trump’s new South Asia policy is a clear result of him being under the serious control of his generals.

The ramifications of this new strategy would be severely negative since it is like giving a free hand to the military in handling the Afghan war. To achieve military cum political objectives, the number of drone strikes would increase inside Pakistan primarily targeting civilian and unarmed populations.

These drone strikes have had little value in countering terrorism in the past but now they would not only be aimed at eliminating high value targets but also to stir things up in the Pak-Afghan border areas.

As a consequence of these strikes, there will be a new wave of terrorist incidents across Pakistan, and those groups who somehow ceased their terrorist activities will begin to re-evaluate their strategy. Also, unfortunate but ‘deliberate’ accidents like the Salala incident are likely to happen again ostensibly depicting the frustration of the US Military Forces.

It has been an established opinion of commentators and analysts that there exists only one solution for Afghanistan and that is to bring the Taliban on the negotiation table, by allowing Pakistan to use its influence. Great powers like China and Russia have also admitted the fact that without Pakistan being on board, sustainable and long lasting peace can never be achieved in Afghanistan

This chain of actions would trigger an increased pressure on Pakistan by heating up the eastern and western borders and would also see considerable increase in cross-border skirmishes.

As a result, those Taliban — who are inclined towards Pakistan — would conduct counter-strikes in Afghanistan by targeting ISAF, NATO and Afghan National Army and other Afghan law enforcement agencies resulting in more problems for the US and its allies in relation to Pakistan. This ‘rat race’ is likely to happen and would gain momentum if Trump executes this new strategy.

It is very easy to conclude that Trump’s speech was a charge sheet against his predecessors. Apart from the concerns of Trump, it has been an established opinion of commentators and analysts that there exists only one solution for Afghanistan and that is to bring Taliban on the negotiation table by allowing Pakistan to use its influence.

Great powers like China and Russia have also admitted the fact that without Pakistan being onboard, sustainable and long lasting peace can never be achieved in Afghanistan.

The acquisition of power and prestige has always been instrumental in the international system and the great powers seem to be particularly obsessed with it. Overtly, America being a great power aspires to achieve only one specific objective — to find an honourable exit from Afghanistan.

Without the slightest doubt, it can be said that the Trump administration is applying the same principle that President Nixon and his Security Advisor Henry Kissinger applied in Vietnam — to expand the conflict. Nixon and Kissinger took Vietnam War to neighbouring Cambodia and Laos to suppress the communist forces operating through the alleged ‘Ho Chi Minh Strait’. Kissinger’s orders to General Alexander Haig to ‘destroy everything that moves’ is a testament to American strategic culture — that is perhaps coming into play again.

The writer can be reached at mmab11@gmail.com

Published in Daily Times, September 13^th 2017.