Daily Times

It was a spring evening in April 1986. The historic Liaquat Bagh of Rawalpindi was teeming with people. Jubilant workers of the Pakistan Peoples’ Party spread beyond the confines of the park. On the stage, a young and charismatic Benazir Bhutto raises the slogan “Jaaway Jaaway” (Go, Go), and in response, the crowd chanted Zia Jaaway” (Zia, Go).

And then, indeed, after a decade-long unchallenged reign, General Zia-ul-Haq embarked on the path towards his departure. The regime that he had installed with his own hands, started acting against him. The investigation into the Ojhri camp incident was leaked by one of its members, Aslam Khattak. While this act may have helped Khattak secure his own job, it couldn’t salvage the crumbling authority of General Zia.

The report had recommended action against the generals, holding them responsible for destruction and devastation. While it seemed unlikely, General Zia expressed his anger by dismissing the Junejo government. A few months later, on August 17th, 1988, General Zia’s plane crashed shortly after taking off from Khairpur Tamewali near Bahawalpur. A ceremony was held in his memory. During that event, his emerging protégé from Punjab; Nawaz Sharif, announced that he would carry forward General Zia’s mission.

For the first time in the country’s history, the party heavily favored by the constants of power, has failed to secure a clear majority in the elections.

Nawaz Sharif was a young businessman who had emerged on Pakistan’s political scene during General Zia’s eleven-year rule. He was particularly favored by General Zia, and when his government was challenged by Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the then Speaker of the Punjab Assembly, General Zia himself arrived in Lahore on an official visit. Speaking to journalists at the airport, he made it clear, “Nawaz Sharif is well-pegged.” The campaign against Nawaz Sharif died right there.

Nawaz Sharif rose to become the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Dismissed, reinstated, dismissed again, then re-elected, he kept oscillating. In 2024, he looked well set for a fourth term in the Prime Minister office but that was not to be. He may have survived so far but the people of Pakistan, particularly Punjab, seem to have now moved on. Apparently, PML N has reached a dead end. For the first time in the country’s history, the party heavily favored by the constants of power, has failed to secure a clear majority in the elections.

Pakistan’s constantly evolving political landscape is seeing unprecedented developments. On one hand is Pakistan’s history from 1958 to 1971, when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, nurtured by General Ayub Khan, rose in rebel and founded the Pakistan Peoples’ Party. Following the political crisis that emerged after the 1970 elections, Bhutto ascended to power in what was left of Pakistan. Then, on July 5, 1977, he was ousted from power by General Zia-ul-Haq and subsequently executed through courts.

During Zia’s era, Nawaz Sharif rose to prominence in Punjab’s political landscape. He was catapulted into a prominent position following the 1985 non-party general elections after serving as the Minister of Finance in Governor Lieutenant General Ghulam Jilani Khan’s cabinet. After the dismissal of Muhammad Khan Junejo’s government, Nawaz Sharif made extensive efforts to sustain General Zia-ul-Haq’s unstable regime. However, time did not grant General Zia-ul-Haq any respite, and he met his end in a plane crash. While Nawaz had troubles with Generals Asif Nawaz Janjua and Jehangir Karamat, it was General Pervez Musharraf who ousted Nawaz Sharif from power and incarcerated him in Attock Fort.

The Anti-Terrorism Court sentenced Nawaz to 25 years in prison.

Nawaz Sharif, however, made a comeback. After winning the 2013 elections, Nawaz Sharif’s government faced interference from the establishment and was brought to a halt through a combination means. While the government managed to complete the five-year tenure, Nawaz was disqualified mid-term.

After spending years in London during Imran Khan’s tenure, Nawaz Sharif contemplated his return only when the Khan government started falling out of favors with the establishment.

Nawaz Sharif returned under stringent conditions. Imran Khan was ousted through a vote of no-confidence. Imran Khan, however, proved that he was a tough nut to crack and started an agitation that is yet to see an end. Despite a crackdown in response to the events of May 9, Imran Khan’s party emerged as the largest party in the National Assembly elections held on 8th February, 2024.

On the election day, Nawaz Sharif declared that he would be interested in leading the government only if his party secured a clear majority. The results, however, were astonishingly surprising. His party failed to emerge even as the single largest entity, let alone securing a majority. Several senior leaders lost to minnows. Even those who won had allegations of rigging immediately leveled against them. Nawaz Sharif himself, despite having won from both Lahore and Mansehra, faced a public backlash as his victory was termed engineered.

Nawaz Sharif, much like the state of Pakistan, seems to be running out of time. An implosion seems likely. The elections that many expected to take the country forward, have created more problems that they would have solved. Nawaz wants to come to power but doesn’t have the numbers. His alliance with PPP will put him in the front seat of a car being remotely driven from the backseat. He doesn’t want that.

He can make a graceful exit and announce to sit in the opposition benches while the PTI independents form the government allying with whoever pleases them but that is sure to put him behind bars. He doesn’t want that either. He had wanted to install his heir, his daughter Maryam Nawaz, in Punjab, if not center while he could. It doesn’t seem likely now that neither public nor time is on his side.

The party seems to be over for Nawaz.

The writer is a veteran journalist based in Islamabad. He writes on social, political, economic, defence and strategic developments across the South Asian region. He can be reached through on zm.journalist@gmail.com