Daily Times

As Pakistan gears up for the next general elections, there are signs of a brewing political clash between two divergent sections of the country’s surging middle class. On one side stands a comparatively less educated, small business-oriented middle class reluctant to pay taxes or accept more regulation. On the other is a young, salaried professional middle class eager to contribute taxes in return for upgraded governance and public services.

The first group constitutes shopkeepers, traders, manufacturers, contractors, and other self-employed people primarily engaged in smaller enterprises. Core to their interests is minimizing interference in commercial activities and keeping compliance costs low. Many operate partly in the informal sector and view the taxman and bureaucratic red tape as intrusions that eat into profits.

In contrast, the second middle-class cohort consists largely of white-collar workers employed by corporations, banks, telecom firms, educational institutions, and the like. With university degrees and predictable monthly paychecks, their priorities revolve around better infrastructure, healthcare, education for kids, and the rule of law – prerequisites for sustained economic mobility. This class is generally willing to pay taxes that funnel back to citizens through expanded public goods and welfare programs.

The rising tensions between Pakistan’s dual middle classes carry risks of political polarization along new socio-economic lines.

Historically, both groups found common ground in wanting political stability and security from external threats after decades of conflict. But as Pakistan steps into a new era of relative peace, its economic and administrative preferences are diverging. Where the smaller business middle class still favours libertarian policies, their young professional counterpart is embracing a greater role for the state.

This philosophical split within the traditionally conservative middle-class voter base poses challenges for parties positioning themselves ahead of elections. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which until recently drew the most support from the larger business community, has now focused on these young voters, who are fed up with the traditional economic practices of the previous governments and demand the state to be responsible in its affairs providing the basic amenities to its citizens.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) – having alternated in power and traditionally relying on a mix of urban middle and working classes – face a complex balancing act. Maintaining backing from businesses means resisting tax hikes and regulatory oversight. Yet neglecting calls for reform from educated citizens risks losing emerging middle-class votes centred in cities.

For younger, reform-minded parties like Jamat-e-Islami (JI) targeting the educated middle class, there is an opening to advocate centralized planning, equality drives and fiscal policies leveraging tax revenues for public goods. However, such platforms could prove a tough sell among traditional business interests.

The rising tensions between Pakistan’s dual middle classes carry risks of political polarization along new socio-economic lines. While democracy thrives on the competition of ideas, aggressive identity-based populism from any camp threatens to deepen divides in society. As stakes are raised in the pre-poll season, moderation and inclusive messaging will be key. Parties must figure out how to build common ground between the divergent aspirations of small traders and salaried professionals – or risk fragmented electoral outcomes.

The great challenge lies in balancing policy pragmatism with lofty principles of equal rights and development for all. If political forces can craft a coherent long-term vision uniting Pakistan’s burgeoning middle strata, there exists an opportunity to take the country toward sustained prosperity and social cohesion. But if populist appeals further cleave the centre, instability may persist even in a time of renewed peace. The forthcoming elections will offer early signs of which path ultimately prevails. which path ultimately prevails.

Much will depend on how successfully each major party can appeal to both halves of Pakistan’s divided middle-class voter base. While policies will be crucial, voter turnout on election day may ultimately decide which factions hold greater sway. If educated young professionals flock strongly to the polls, they could empower reformist parties with ambitious plans for social spending and institutional reform. However, a large mobilization of traditional business interests retaining suspicions of over-taxation and bureaucratic overreach may tilt outcomes in favour of more fiscally restrained platforms. Whichever segment of the middle class turns out in greater numbers will influence the direction of the next government. As competing visions for Pakistan’s economic stewardship vie for dominance, the diverging allegiances of its dual middle classes ensure elections will be nothing if not pivotal in deciding the national policy agenda for years to come.

The writer is a student.