Daily Times

Gold price in the country declined for the third straight week by Rs2,150 (-0.99 percent) per tola, following an uptick in prices in the international markets.

The gold rate for a single tola of 24-karat decreased to Rs215,300 from Rs217,450 during the week, according to the data shared by different jeweller associations. Similarly, the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold closed at Rs184,585 against Rs185,614 at the start of the week, reflecting a dip of Rs1,029.

In global markets, gold closed the week at $2,029.20 per ounce against $2,048.70 in the preceding week, showing a week-on-week dip of $19.50 (-0.95 percent).

The Pakistani rupee continued making slight gains against the US dollar for the 10th week in a row and improved by Rs0.46 (+0.16 percent week-on-week. Since gold is denominated in the US dollars, when the local unit appreciates against the greenback, the value of gold in the local market decreases if all other factors remain the same. A minor difference in gold value’s depreciation in the local and international markets is due to appreciation of the local unit against the greenback during the week under review.

Gold started the week under bearish pressure and fell during the first three days of the week. Though gold bounced back during the last two sessions, it failed to erase its losses and registered around one percent dip week-on-week. Investors still see a strong probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will opt for a rate cut in March, not allowing US bond yields to push higher and supporting the gold prices.

The dollar shot up to a one-month highs, while Treasury yields saw extended gains after retail sales data for December read stronger than expected. The data lent further credence to recent comments from Fed officials that resilience in the US economy will see the central bank keep rates higher for longer. Higher rates dent the appeal of gold by pushing up the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal.

Gold prices rose slightly on Thursday, steadying from a sharp tumble this week as strong US data spurred increasing doubts over early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The yellow metal wiped out most gains made through December, and came close to breaking below the coveted $2,000 an ounce level as the dollar and US Treasury yields rebounded this week.

Gold price increased during the last two sessions as the appeal for safe-haven assets improved due to the deepening Middle East conflict. Adding to the war in Gaza, tensions between Houthi rebels and the United States military are increasing in the key commercial shipping route crossing the Red Sea. Moreover, Pakistan carried out military strikes in Iran on Thursday following a similar attack by Iran in its territory.

While gold had seen some relief in December, briefly hitting record highs amid bets on early interest rate cuts, the outlook for the yellow metal now turns uncertain in the face of higher-for-longer rates.

Due to all these factors, the precious metal has recovered significantly but the outlook in the near term has not turned bullish as further upside looks capped by diminishing bets supporting an interest-rate cut from the Fed. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the fourth consecutive time at the monetary policy meeting on January 31.