Daily Times

In his latest visit to the States, General Asim Munir used certain keywords reflecting his true intentions and laying the foundations for Pakistan’s foreign policy. He hoped to develop Pakistan as a “hub of connectivity” in the region and a “gateway” for Central Asian states and beyond. Most importantly, he emphasised maintaining “balanced” relationships with friendly nations. Unfortunately for Pakistan, we have always been caught in someone else’s drama or as some critics would like to call it, Pakistan has a way of finding itself in the midst of problems that should not concern it. However, what is unfolding in front of us are peculiar political and economic circumstances. It seems that Iran, India and Afghanistan are all coming for Pakistan, and we are still unsure about our alliance with the US or China.

In June 2023, a transformational shift was seen in the Pak-US relations when the United States joined India in calling out Pakistan for terrorism. Experts eyeing the US’s South Asia Strategy believe that Pakistan does not hold a critical place in this strategy anymore or that relations are circumscribed. These are primarily the consequence of a pro-Taliban narrative by Pakistan in 2021. I would describe Pak-Us relations as highly transactional, solely based on what Pakistan can offer the US in its counterterrorism and regional integration efforts. On the other hand, the two nations hold bilateral trade worth $9.15 billion in 2022. Also, Pakistan is the 24th largest export market for the US in food and agricultural-related products.

Pakistan should focus on diversifying its economic and strategic partnerships to mitigate over-reliance on any single country.

Pakistan’s relationship with China, on the other hand, has been steadily growing stronger. The two countries have a long-standing strategic partnership, and China has been a major investor in Pakistan’s infrastructure and energy projects through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The CPEC aims to improve Pakistan’s transportation network and energy infrastructure, which in turn, has the potential to boost Pakistan’s economy and trade capabilities.

In recent years, China has emerged as one of Pakistan’s largest trading partners. Bilateral trade between Pakistan and China has been on the rise, with a total trade volume reaching over $17 billion in 2022. This trade relationship is expected to continue growing as both countries seek to further enhance economic cooperation. What is even more noteworthy is that China’s foreign trade in 2023 reached a total of 41.76 trillion yuan ($5.87 trillion), showing a modest growth of 0.2 per cent compared to the previous year. According to customs data released on Friday, the expansion rate in December was even higher at 2.8 per cent in yuan-denominated terms. This stable growth is seen as a positive sign, indicating that the world’s second-largest economy is successfully maintaining its recovery momentum despite facing various sources of pressure.

Furthermore, Pakistan’s entanglement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative presents economic and regional opportunities with other countries in the region. As Pakistan aims to position itself as a hub of connectivity, the collaboration with China under the BRI can significantly contribute to achieving this goal. In April 2023, media outlets reported that Ms Hina Rabbani Khar suggested the then Prime Minister Mr Shehbaz Sharif not evade “appeasing the West” at the expense of a “real strategic partnership” with China. Hence Pakistan is caught between the US and its deep ties with China. I say deep “C” because of the sheer magnitude of investment China has made in Pakistan over the years in terms of economic, political and foreign policy.

Pakistan has been enjoying the fruit of its geo-strategic placement in the region for over 7 decades now. Unfortunately, there has never been a clear foreign policy, or any strategic advancement made on security policy. Pakistan could have maintained a delicate balance in its foreign relations and leveraged its strategic location to facilitate trade and connectivity initiatives with both countries. While benefiting from working in coalition with the US would have provided Pakistan with access to advanced technology, investment opportunities, and security cooperation. China could have been its passport to significant economic support, infrastructure development, and access to a vast market. However, all is not lost but is a lot more complicated. Pakistan’s complex trading and foreign relations with the US and China require a delicate balancing act. This honestly means devising a foreign policy action plan that only prioritizes our national interests and seeks opportunities for cooperation with the US, China and other friendly nations.

To maintain a balance in its foreign relations with the US and China, Pakistan needs to carefully navigate its diplomatic engagements with both countries. First and foremost, Pakistan should focus on diversifying its economic and strategic partnerships to mitigate over-reliance on any single country. While the historical ties with the US cannot be overlooked, Pakistan should also capitalize on its strengthening relationship with China. This would involve leveraging its geostrategic location and playing an active role in multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. I don’t think now is the time to shy completely away from the bloc politics. It is the new norm for countries to collaborate and work together and perhaps that should be reflected in our foreign policy and the foreign office’s efforts.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s ability to maintain a balance in its foreign relations with the US and China will depend on its adept navigation of geopolitical complexities, proactive diplomacy, and focus on its national interests. If not, we will always be caught between the US and the deep C.

The writer is Foreign Research Associate, Centre of Excellence, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamabad.