Daily Times

The ancient Greek historian and general as well Thucydides has been considered the father of “scholarly historical events” by the people who acknowledge the fact that in keeping with the start to his work, he kept to strict standards of objectivity, evidence-gathering, and cause and effect relation in his historical analysis.

He was particularly fascinated by the idea that destiny is too unpredictable and illogical.

He used to believe it was predictable that an existing power and an emerging force would clash. The United States of America, the prevailing world power the dominant position, with the Chinese mainland, the rising power, appear to be heading straight into the Thucydides trap at right now.

In a little over forty years, China-US ties have “produced tremendous and extraordinary outcomes,” the former Chinese foreign policy czar, Dai Bingguo (Chinese politician and diplomat) remembered at a US-China conference. These outcomes include bilateral trade and investment, curbing threats to peace and security, and tackling global concerns. But it is now evident that the US looks at China’s ascent as a challenge to its hegemony in the world. Three years ago, Whitehouse declared that the US will “pivot” to Asia. Now that the pivot is well underway.

US looks at China’s ascent as a challenge to its hegemony in the world.

In recent months, US military actions to restrict China have increased in strength and transparency. The Pacific is where three quarters of US naval force is currently stationed. The United States is forming a ring of partnerships with nations encircling China, extending from Afghanistan to South Korea. It has intervened in China’s maritime conflicts, charged China with unfair trade practices, cyberattacks, espionage, and human rights violations, barred China from the Transpacific Trade Partnership, which is supported by the US, and boycotted the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which is supported by China. In recent months, US military actions to restrict China have increased in strength and transparency.

To counter North Korea’s missile threat, the US has agreed to station the advanced THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea. Other examples of such actions include supporting Japan’s militarization; stationing US air and naval troops in the Philippines; rough naval monitoring in the South China Sea; increasing defense collaboration with and provides to India; prepositioning American military supplies and equipment in Vietnam; and ligament naval and military drills alongside Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India. Moreover, given China’s staking of interests in the southern China Sea, the aggressive, half-Japanese leader of the According to reports, US Pacific Control has instructed its soldiers to prepare “to fight tonight.” The Hague Arbitration Tribunal’s recent ex-part ruling against China in the South China Sea’s islands dispute, which was established in response to the Philippines’ unilateral appeal to the International Court, may culminate the escalating Sino-US hostilities.

Dai Bingguo acknowledged China’s historical claim in the previously mentioned speech by recalling how, at the close of World War II, the US had really assisted China in regaining possession of the South China peninsula from Japanese occupation. According to Dai, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries “illegally” occupied forty-two islands and reefs after 1970. According to Dai, the US’s subsequent statement that it had no opinion on the matter of authority over these islands amounted to “back-pedaling.” The US said three years ago that it had a ‘national interest’ in these disputes and encouraged their multi-lateralization.

China maintains no legitimate claim to most of these islands, according to the Hague ruling. Reversing its post-War stance, the US claims that China must now abide by this international law. Because Washington is not a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea, unlike China, its position is even more egregious.

China claims that the “tribunal” was established unilaterally and that it lacked the authority under UNCLOS to act without China’s approval or to make decisions over territory that fall outside the purview of the convention.

It is still uncertain how much of a response China will give the US actions against it. Beijing will oppose any “humiliation” or capitulation on the growing sense of nationality and pride in China. China’s ‘territorial integrity.

With the obvious intention of reiterating its territorial claims, China has stated that it will soon conduct large-scale military drills in certain areas of the southern China Sea. An early test of ability may result from any effort by the US to conduct so called “freedom of navigation” forays during such drills.

Without a doubt, China will try to convince the incoming president of the Philippines to choose a negotiated solution over trying to “implement” The Hague verdict. China might offer the Philippines substantial assistance for the development of its infrastructure in return. Beijing will respond harshly if Manila rejects this offer, especially to make sure that other littoral governments do not follow the Philippines’ lead.

The deployment of the THAAD anti-missile weapon system through Seoul would seriously damage China’s diplomatic and commercial ties to South Korea. China could increase its defense and economic support for North Korea in place of sanctions to keep it from collapsing.

Beijing’s stance toward Japan is going to become more rigid. Joint China-Russian naval exercises in the North China Sea could be a reaction to the US-Japan-South Korea drills.

China might “activate” the northern challenged border, expand its naval activities into the Bay of Bengal along with the Indian Ocean, deepen its strategic alliance with Pakistan, and step-up efforts to gain more influence in Afghanistan alongside other South Asian countries in response to the growing military cooperation between the US and India.

Pakistan will be forced to ally itself more closely to China as the Sino-US competition intensifies. Pakistan will therefore be subject to even more US compulsion and pressure, concerning matters such as Afghanistan, terrorism, nuclear, and missile challenges.

A conflict between the US and China would have worldwide effects. Defense cooperation between China and Russia would increase. By connecting China with Europe via Russia, the One Belt, One Road initiative will lessen the influence of the United States. China may side with anti-US regimes in the Middle East. Africa might split into blocs associated with the West and China. To challenge American dominance, Mexico, Brazil, and a few other states in Latin America might be receptive to forging deeper ties with China. The US-China economic relationship, which includes their trillion-dollar trade and cross-border investment, would drastically deteriorate, reducing global and national growth financial and go off another comprehensive economic disaster. Ten of the fifteen historical instances that Dr. Kissinger examined in which established countries faced off against up-and-coming rivals ended in war. There is yet time for the US and China to escape the Thucydides trap. Washington bears the responsibility for ensuring this. Regrettably, the triumph of moderation and reason is not bolstered by the anti-China populism evident in the present US presidential campaign.

The writer is a freelance columnist.