Daily Times

As far as China is concerned, the South China Sea is its own virtual waterway. For Beijing has, after all, already made territorial and maritime claims over it, which have been reinforced by the building of military structures on old and newly dredged islands. To be sure, the US challenges all this with occasional naval patrols in a bid to assert the right of freedom of navigation.Moreover, some regional countries, too, have contested this sovereignty. Yet they have been effectively silenced by China’s regional player status both in military and economic terms, the latter affording Beijing an indomitable role when it comes to trade and investment.

All of which has drastically weakened the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Especially since many of its members are beholden to China for political and economic support. This goes a long way to explaining why the Philippines ended up prioritising friendly ties with Beijing over pursuing its own sovereignty claims — despite these being recognised by the relevant international court. Vietnam, too, finds itself in a similar position.

Nevertheless, Indonesia has begun to assert its sovereignty over the South China Sea, a U-turn in terms of previous policy. As Joe Cochrane recently reported from Jakarta for the New York Times: “Indonesia’s increasingly aggressive posture in the region—including a military build up in its nearby Natuna Islands and the planned deployment of naval warships—comes as other [regional] nations are being more accommodating to China’s broad territorial claims in the South China Sea.” Indeed, the NYT report goes on to point out how the two countries had three maritime skirmishes last year. These were said to involve warning shots, “including one in which Indonesian warships seized a Chinese fishing boat and its crew”.

Up until now, the US-Japan-Australia ‘nexus’ hasn’t primarily been directed against China. Yet this might be about to change. Both Beijing and Tokyo are engaged in a sovereignty dispute in the East China Sea. The US has showed its support for Japan

China, needless to say, has not been amused by any of this — stressing how its nine-dash line that delineates its sovereignty claims in the disputed waterway does, in fact, include “traditional fishing grounds” within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. Just how far Jakarta will go to pursue sovereignty remains tobe seen. Aside from military might, it is, of course, reliant upon China for investment and trade. That Indonesia has gone down this route at a time when Beijing is more or less the accepted regional heavyweight may or may not suggest that all bets are now off.

China, for its part, appears comfortable in the role of regional powerhouse. It will not therefore welcome intermittent US naval manoeuvres in waters that it claims as its own. And now it has to contend with Jakarta contesting these, too. Then there is the additional question of an orchestrated regional alliance comprising the US and allies Japan and Australia. Up until now, this ‘nexus’ hasn’t primarily been directed against China, its focus being to maintain regional stability and security. Yet this might be about to change. Along with Japan, Beijing is also engaged in a sovereignty dispute in the East China Sea. Already there have been close naval encounters between the two sides. Washington has indicated its support to Japan, though what this might mean in practical terms is yet to be seen.

Australia has long irked China over its security alliance with the US. Even though neither is engaged in a sovereignty dispute of any kind with the other — Canberra, nevertheless, remains concerned that Beijing’s forays into the South China Sea risks upsetting the regional balance. And, it believes, no one would benefit if this were to happen. Thus does Australia support a continued US presence while China views Washington as an external power meddling in someone else’s backyard.

The most galling thing for Beijing is that despite being Australia’s largest trading partner and a source of economic prosperity — the latter refuses to surrender to its vision for a new regional order. Thus even something as mundane as a press report on the possible appointment of Admiral Harry Harris as US ambassador to Australia is sufficient to prompt a harsh response. According to Chinese daily Global Times, as commander of the US Pacific Fleet, Admiral Harris is “the most prejudiced and Cold War-minded chief of all US pacific commanders since WWII”. To be fair, this gentleman has publicly spoken out against China’s “increasing assertiveness” in the South China Sea, while calling on US naval vessels to step up freedom of navigation patrols as a means of contesting Beijing’s territorial and maritime claims. The Chinese fear is that Admiral Harris would push Canberra into joining these patrols — a move it has so far resisted — thereby consolidating further the bilateral security alliance.

The fallout is increasing Chinese insecurities. The latest example being when Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull recently called upon Beijing to cut off oil supplies to North Korea, given the latter’s rogue nuclear weapons programme. Almost immediately, Global Times ran an editorial critical of these comments before labelling his country a“second class citizen of the West.”

So, there we have it. Even thought China likes to play the part of regional powerhouse — such outbursts give the impression that it is still simply trying the role on for size. And with the Korean Peninsula having recently emerged as the latest global flashpoint — all sorts of uncertainties remain. But that is another story for another time.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia

Published in Daily Times, September 22^nd 2017.