Daily Times

With the imposition of fresh sanctions by the UN Security Council against the North Korean nuclear missile tests, Pyongyang has escalated its threatening tone and posture. Reacting to Japan’s support to the UN Security Council resolutions, the Korea-Asia Pacific Peace Committee, which looks after North Korean relations with the world, threatened that, “The four islands of the Japanese archipelago should be sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche. Japan is no longer needed to exist near us.” North Korea is not only threatening Japan but also the United States and South Korea of far reaching consequences if the three continue to exert pressure and further deepen its isolation.

The UN Security Council resolution of September 12 which imposed fresh sanctions on North Korea however didn’t deter that Stalinist regime as on September 15 it tested an intermediate range missile which flew over Japan. On September 16, the North Korean leader Kim Jong un was quoted by the official Korean Central News Agency warning that, “we should clearly show the big power chauvinists how our state attain the goal of completing nuclear force despite their limitless sanctions and blockade. Our final goal is to establish the equilibrium of real force with the US and make the US rulers dare not talk about military option for the DPRK.”

North Korea’s aggressive and belligerent posture and its resolve to continue with its nuclear ambitions have much to do with the failure of United States and its allies to prevent the nuclearisation of India and Pakistan

It is not only North Korea which is threatening the United States of using nuclear missiles against its naval base Guam and mainland America, but President Trump during his address on the occasion of 72nd session of the UN General Assembly on September 19 threatened North Korea by warning that, “the United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.

How real is the threat of North Korea in terms of using nuclear weapons against US? Why North Korea has followed an aggressive and provocative policy vis-à-vis South Korea and Japan? How far the UN Security Council can restrain North Korea of giving practical shape of its threats?

Since 1994 when the then North Korean leader Kim II Sung embarked on an ambitious nuclear program till today, Pyongyang is consistent in its nuclear drive. The then US President Bill Clinton in order to restrain North Korean nuclear program pursued a policy of ‘carrot and stick’ by acts of coercion and also offering financial package. However, such a policy didn’t work to the extent that in 2005 North Korea announced that it possesses nuclear weapons.

Three major factors shape North Korean age old policy of giving threats. First, confident, coherent and consistent policy of North Korean defiance of the UN Security Council because Kim Jong Un and his predecessors realised very well that in view of their threats to “transform the Sea of Japan in flames” the United States and its allies will think twice before using force against Pyongyang. Any US-led attack on North Korea will put South Korea and Japan vulnerable to North Korea’s massive retaliation in the form of nuclear missiles. Second, North Korean aggressive and belligerent posture and its resolve to continue with its nuclear ambitions have much to do with the failure of United States and its allies to prevent the nuclearisation of India and Pakistan.

The fact that, the nuclear tests of India and Pakistan conducted in May 1998 led to international condemnation and the imposition of sanctions against New Delhi and Islamabad but the world failed to restrain the two countries roll back their nuclear weapon’s program. Most important, sanctions which were imposed against India and Pakistan after their nuclear tests were lifted in the aftermath of 9/11. The lifting of sanctions by the West and Japan meant that any country can conduct nuclear tests and gets away. North Korea was certainly encouraged because of the lifting of sanctions against India and Pakistan and manipulated the compromising position of the United States in order to further augment its nuclear program. Third, North Korea’s threatening posture is also the result of space which it gets from China and Russia, its neighbours and major supplier of essential items like oil, machinery and food. On various occasions, both Russia and China, because of their age old alliance with North Korea, have suggested that the only way the nuclear crisis can be resolved is by holding negotiations with Pyongyang. As discussed in an article “Putin calls for dialogue to avert a catastrophe” The Guardian Weekly in its September 9, 2017 issue quoted President Vladimir Putin that, “They will eat grass but will not stop their program as long as they do not feel safe. Foreign interventions in Iraq and Libya had convinced North Korean leader Kim Jong un that he needed nuclear weapons to survive.”

But, if historical records are checked, negotiations were held many times between North Korea and the United States. For example, on June 15, 1994, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter negotiated a deal with North Korea in which Pyongyang confirmed its willingness to “freeze” its nuclear weapons program and resume high-level talks with the United States. North Korea also allowed the IAEA to verify compliance through special inspections,” and it agreed to allow 8,000 spent nuclear reactor fuel elements to be removed to a third country.

The question is when a major breakthrough was achieved in 1994 between the United States and North Korea on resolving the nuclear issue, why the situation again got messed up to the extent that Pyongyang withdrew from NPT and resumed its nuclear program? It means, North Korea cheated the U.S; took the financial assistance and augmented its nuclear weapon’s program to the extent that it tested ICBM capable of reaching the U.S mainland. If North Korea again gets away by testing its nuclear missiles of bigger capability, it means it will not be under any pressure neither from the UN Security Council nor from the US.

As things are moving, the North Korean threat seems to be real and not superficial. It is perceived that the easiest way to put the United States in a quandary is by using North Korea especially when Pyongyang claims that it has medium and long range nuclear weapons. Can China and Russia be suspected of pushing North Korea to a confrontationist path with the United States so that Washington is not focused on other regions and critical issues? As things stand today, the Korean peninsula is on a brink of an armed conflict which can destabilise the peace of the world. Guarantees given by the permanent members of the UN Security Council to North Korea about its security may help reach an agreement with Pyongyang on keeping its minimum nuclear deterrence. It seems, the world will have to live with nuclear North Korea as the United States is to be held responsibility of not .managing nuclear proliferation. And Trump’s latest threat to “totally destroy North Korea” will further deepen the crisis in North East Asia.

The writer is Meritorious Professor of International Relations at the University of Karachi. E. Mail: amoonis@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, September 22^nd 2017.