Daily Times

Lahore: Though the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has lost its share of votes polled in the NA-120 from 59 percent in 2013 to 49 percent in 2017, the party has still managed to secure a simple majority in a good three-fourth of the polling stations in the constituency.

Polling-station wise results issued by the Election Commission of Pakistan show that the ruling party has won over 50 percent votes in 106 polling stations.

Given that it retains this support going into the next year’s election, these polling stations can be considered safe from PML-N’s point of view.

For Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), the number of such polling stations – where it has secured over 50 percent of the vote – is 20 out of the 51 where it has won simple majority of votes.

Safe polling stations: The polling stations considered safe from PML-N’s point of view are located mostly on Bund Road, Ravi Road, Katcha Ravi Road Rettigan Road, Mohni Road, Lower Mall, and in Karim Park, Momin Pura and Bilal Gunj – in PP-139 from where Kulsoom Nawaz’s nephew Bilal Yasin in an MPA.

Among these, there are 25 where the ruling party has secured between 60 and 70 percent of the vote and one where it has polled over 70 percent of the vote.

Interestingly, 25 of these highly secure polling stations are women-only polling stations (one is a joint polling station). The average voter turnout at these polling stations is 33.1 percent – about the same as the women’s overall turn out. The higher PML-N vote in these polling stations, therefore, is a reflection of the high support for the party – rather than higher than average turn out in general. It may also be linked to Maryam Nawaz’s canvassing among women voters during the campaign that featured a convention of PML-N women workers.

The 20 polling stations where the PTI has secured over 50 percent of the vote are located in Krishanagar and Santnagar areas and in a neighbourhood along Sanda Road.

Competitive polling stations: This leaves the constituency with 94 polling stations (62 won by PML-N and 31 by PTI and one a tie between the two parties) where none of the two major parties have crossed the 50 percent mark. The extreme-right wing vote – captured by Sheikh Yaqoob of Jamaatud Dawa’s political wing and Sheikh Azhar Rizvi of Labaik Ya Rasool Ullah – is likely to play a decisive role in these polling stations.

Most of these polling stations are scattered all over the place in the constituency but some blocks are also identifiable in the detailed result issued by the ECP. The election was competitive in polling stations at King Edward Medical College, Hall Road, Napier Road, Mozang area, Lake Road, Dev Samaj Road, Chohan Road and some areas in Krishanagar and Sanda Khurd.

Voter turnout at competitive polling stations remained slightly higher than the overall turn out. It was found to be a little lower than overall turnout at safe polling stations.

Gender-wise break down: A gender-wise break down of votes shows that 40,920 (89.1 percent) of the 45,903 women votes in NA-120 were in women-only polling stations. At these polling stations (98 in total), PML-N secured 21,650 votes against 15,030 votes of PTI. These translate into a 52.9 percent vote share for PML-N – more than the 49 percent overall vote share – and a 36 percent vote share for PTI – less than its overall vote share of 39 percent.

In contrast, PML-N managed to secure 35,192 of 74,907 votes polled at men-only polling stations, or 46.9 percent of the votes – lower than its overall vote share of 49 percent. With 28,844 votes, PTI’s share of votes at men-only polling stations was 38.5 percent – about the same as its share in overall vote.

Though most polling stations won by both parties are scattered all over the place in the constituency, there is solid block of 89 polling stations – beginning with polling station no35 and ending at polling station no123 – all of which have been won by the ruling party.

NOTE: An earlier version of the article mentioned incorrect vote share figures for PML-N in 2013 and 2017. The error is regretted and has been fixed.

Published in Daily Times, September 23^rd 2017.