Daily Times

The existence of an action-reaction spiral between South Asian nuclear rivals has increased the fragility of regional strategic stability. India’s military modernization drive comprised of military stockpiling and war-prone military strategies such as Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) is considered alarming for deterrence stability in the region. The worrisome reality about India’s military modernization based on the huge militarization thrust has the potential to disturb the balance of power and the deterrence stability in region.

In 2004, India introduced a new military doctrine known as Cold Start as a part of its grand strategy to ensure training, procurement, services and national policies to achieve an edge in future military operations under the nuclear overhang against Pakistan. It is based on the pre-emptive strike with reduced the mobilization period of integrated battle groups for limited war. The aim of the doctrine is to launch a retaliatory punitive conventional strike to inflict maximum damage by using conventional arms at the time of crisis and use it as a bargaining chip. The Cold Start Doctrine not only ensured the forwarded dumping of ammunition and placing of troops in forwarded cantonments but also brought change in their war strategy by immediately employing their forward deployed troops in an offensive role as part of their “Pro-active strategy” to achieve limited aim offensive.

The Indian aim of Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) or Pro-active strategy is to engage Pakistan in a limited war; a war which brings financial and economic restraints for Pakistan. Therefore, the Indian shift from a traditional defensive posture to more offensive posture against Pakistan through the Cold Start Doctrine, forces Pakistan to formulate strategic solutions to maintain the Balance of Power. So the question arises about what are the options for Pakistan to shape its defence policy in response to India’s pro-active strategy against Pakistan?

Pakistan’s strategic planners view NASR as a viable solution to the Indian Cold Start Doctrine. They maintain that NASR has put cold water on cold start because it has reduced the probability of any kind of aggression

In response to the real threat of Cold Start of aggressive insight, Pakistan adopted the counter measure strategy and developed the short range, low-yield, battle field nuclear weapons. NASR (Hatf-IX) is the most significant short range missile that aims to prepare against Indian aggression through punitive retaliation. NASR was introduced in 2011, it is dual-capable missile with a range of 60km and it is characterized as “quick response system”. NASR is a dual-capable battlefield weapon and it can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads to defeat external aggression. Additionally, it is significant to note that, NASR is not only a cost effective apparatus against Indian aggression it has also enhanced Pakistan’s deterrent force value. According to the ISPR, NASR has capability to contribute to “full spectrum deterrence” against perceived evolving threats and it has successfully defeated the Indian aim of exploring the means for conventional conflict. Due to these factors, Pakistan’s strategic planners view NASR as a viable solution to the Indian cold start doctrine and maintain that NASR has put Cold Water on Cold Start because it has reduced the probability of any kind of aggression or limited war against Pakistan and brought down the evolving threat of war on strategic level.

Global strategic reservations exist on Pakistan’s low yield, battlefield, strategic nuclear missile “NSAR”. The global debate on Pakistan’s “NASR missiles” revolves around propaganda of Western and Indian analysts and strategic thinkers. Debate about the TNWs in South Asian context started in 2011 after the flight testing of NASR by Pakistan. Pakistan also has Abdali (180 km) and Hatf-IA (100 km) missiles that confer tactical capability. Whereas India also possess TNWs including Indian made short range Ballistic missile ‘Prahaar’ (150 km) and tactical surface-to-surface missile ‘Pragati’ (60-170 km) ; Pragati’ is based on the Prahaar missile. India is also working on Pinaka Guided (60 km) that will be a tactical asset. Such weapons provide better reaction time to India than liquid fuelled Prithvi-I. It is imperative to identify that India tested Prahaar after few months of Pakistan’s test of NASR and now India is developing more tactical Nuclear Weapons. However dilemma of global strategic argument regarding TNWs is that debate remains muted about India’s tactical nukes. Moreover, it is significant to note that low-yield short range weapons should be called as “battlefield weapons or strategic weapons” instead of Tactical Nuclear Weapons.

NASR (Hatf-IX) is the most significant short-range missile that aims to guard against Indian aggression through punitive retaliation

Yet, significance of low-yield ballistic missiles in South Asia cannot be undermined by global propaganda against Pakistan’s NASR because it is a defensive weapon that aims to uphold strategic and deterrence balance in the region which is expected to be affected in the future due to India’s military modernization plans and growing conventional asymmetry. By developing NASR, Pakistan gave a viable solution or calculated mechanism to counter India’s Cold Start Doctrine without undermining the deterrence stability of the region.

Asma Khalid is Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute, a think-tank based in Islamabad, can be reached at asmaakhalid_90@hotmail.com

Published in Daily Times, September 23^rd 2017.