Daily Times

The United States of America has, somehow, emerged as the expert of fighting wars across the globe. In the contemporary international settings, no single country holds first-hand experience on its portfolio to send troops, fleets, and billions of bucks altogether to the US thousands of miles away. Despite these long drawn and hard expeditions, it seems like the US still has a lot to learn especially in the case of Afghanistan. After months of review, the Trump’s Administration has, finally, come up with what they call a ‘new strategy’ on the War on Terror in Afghanistan which now enters its 16th year — the longest war in the history of USA.

The crux of the revealed strategy is that Pakistan should take serious action on militant sanctuaries and Afghanistan should not expect support for nation-building anymore. The US, at home and abroad, as the self-proclaimed champion of democracy has officially withdrawn itself from the process of social engineering in Afghanistan. One may ask the western allies whether or not they are on board to take such major shifts in foreign policy as it would impact their foreign policy stakes vis-à-vis Afghanistan.

Having more troops joining the war is nothing more than delaying inevitable failure. In short, military action in Afghanistan has become synonymous with defeat

Apart from an adventurous nature, President Trump did not add anything particular in his new plan on Afghanistan. More troops to join the war is nothing more than delaying the failure that has become evidently clear now. Military action in Afghanistan has become synonymous to the recipe of failure that is writing on the wall. The current regime controls (57 percent) of the territory which is the least since the fall of the Taliban. The country is increasingly becoming hegemonic and the epicenter of global militant organizations like ISIS, Daesh, and Islamic State in Khorasan Province(ISKP) etc.

On the other hand, Afghanistan has had its worst political turmoil since the Taliban fled Kabul. President Ghani being a control-freak is losing his moral authority and weakening the office with every passing day. He is known as inept, corrupt, ethnically biased and arrogant in Afghan intelligentsia. Due to a complex power-sharing formula brokered by Secretary Kerry after dubious elections in 2014, there is a tug of war between President Ghani (Pashtun) and CEO (PM) Abdullah Abdullah (Tajik). Such fissures don’t exist only in Kabul but it has spread over the country. Top army personnel, higher officials in bureaucracy and warlords-cum ministers are choosing sides to secure their benefits. The country is ranked at 111 of 113 in the Rule of Law Index in 2016 (World Justice Project). The great mistrust is steadily deepening in the society and warlords-cum politicians are getting stronger to exploit the Government. President Ghani and his allies seem to be the direct beneficiaries of Trump’s new strategy by buying some more time to govern.

In the given circumstances, Pakistan and Afghanistan are also in conflict with their bordering countries. Insecure and vulnerable Afghanistan is a constant threat to all its neighbors. The current regime uses terrorism, militancy and Talibanisation as excuses of incompetence and bad governance. On the contrary, the international community provides bread and butter to Afghanistan and is no longer patient on a decades long policy of ‘deep-state’ adapted by Pakistani establishment.

The choices are limited for Pakistan. Major policy shifts from securitisation to economic development are essential – the any port in the storm. Pakistan alone is not stronger than US collation forces fighting terrorism especially alongside the border with Afghanistan. However, it has considerably progressed to achieve peace by eliminating terrorist activities within its territory under the current democratic regime. The reaction to President Trump’s speech, Pakistan denied kowtowing to the US and repeated old demands to recognise its sacrifices in this war which are indeed greater than all of the NATO countries put together. Pakistan still can hedge its bets if it overcomes problems of so called strategic-depth which has been seen a mother of all ills. Due to this vicious competition, other regional powers like Russia and Iran now have got considerable influence on Taliban groups known as Pakistan’s lethal weapon. Subsequently, Pakistan is not the only friend of militant groups fighting in Afghanistan.

Historically, Pakistan has been first if not the main victim of insurgency in Afghanistan and history is often believed to have repeated itself. Peaceful Afghanistan is necessary for an emerging Pakistan. Such ideology has been seen the reason behind the ouster of the elected Prime Minister of Pakistan that ultimately undermines democratic transition and regional peace and security. Time has come for Islamabad to be diligent and proactive. Pakistan should put its finger on the pulse and reinvent the wheel of foreign policy by taking indiscriminate actions against all odds and using borders as channels of economic cooperation. A new balance sheet of economic and logistic services need to be chalked out in order to renegotiate prices as a pure business deal. Economic and trade partnerships with neighbors and coalition forces could be much more long-lasting and assertive than investing in so called strategic assets. A new era of economic development needs to be caste through perpetuity of democracy and social justice.

The US war in Afghanistan has now become Trump’s War. He might be looking for a mix-and-match strategy to get a reasonable and face saving exit. Being a self-proclaimed deal-maker, he might follow advice of Akin, “Declare Victory and Get Out”. By inviting India, President Trump can’t run with the hare and hunt with the hounds this time. Such unworthy initiatives may escalate tensions between both nuclear powers and the peace process in Afghanistan will suffer. The president’s new Afghan/Pakistan policy hasn’t been well received by ex-officials who have served in the region and people who are in the know. A realistic and fine balance needs to be stuck by a policy that merits inclusion and realism not strategic divide meant to harbor ulterior motives that have held the region hostage for decades now.

The writer is Erasmus Mundus Scholar focuses on politics and foreign policy. Can be accessed at Twitter @fromearth_3

Published in Daily Times, September 24^th 2017.