Daily Times

It is high time that civilian and political forces agree on maintenance of political stability as our prime national interest. Any set of institutions continuing to deprive Pakistan of its political stability are acting against Pakistan’s national interest

I recently attended two talks that emphasised catching-up with growth and pro-poor economic growth in Islamabad. Both talks in different ways underscored the need for planning to promote economic growth, particularly keeping in mind the welfare of the less privileged. A look at the Planning Commission site informs us that there are planning documents available such as the Eleventh Five Year Plan (2013-18), Annual Plan (2017-18) and Vision 2025. However, it is obvious that some of the leading economists are not satisfied with the planning agenda and want more robust and well-thought out planning based on best available policy literature, debates and practices available in the world, particularly learning from examples of those countries who have been able to successfully catch-up with economic growth and reduce poverty levels.

The answer lies in the affirmation of political stability as a prerequisite. Even the Vision 2025 underlies its importance as follows: “If we look at the successful experiences of Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, China, India and Turkey, political stability and policy continuity emerges as a common prerequisite for development. No country has developed with instability and chaos”.

Economic literature informs us that when there is political instability and uncertainty, governments are run on the basis of short time horizons. In other words, the vision to plan long-term and deliver on planning requires long time-horizons, political stability, continuity of policies and certainty that political governments will complete their tenure.

The vision to plan long-term and deliver on planning requires long time-horizons as well as  continuity of policies and certainty that political governments will complete their tenure

If we look at Pakistan’s history or even contemporary history since 2008, sadly political governments were not fortunate enough to enjoy long-term time horizons ensuring sanctity of their mandate to complete their terms as well ability to get re-elected if they perform well. The sort of economic planning whose need was emphasised by economists is missing because those kinds of debates seldom take place in policy circles in contemporary Pakistan due to political uncertainty.

The PPP government completed its tenure from 2008 to 2013. However, the informal buzz about the government then was that it plans and functions on a day to day basis as it is not certain whether it would stay afloat the next week, month or year. If somebody were to watch the political talk shows during the era of that regime, there was much more chatter about the government falling soon rather than staying course and completing its term. Towards the end of PPP government, the Prime Minister was disqualified and replaced by another one.

If we view the present government from 2013 till present, a similar story of political instability grips it. Discourse on election rigging started as soon as the government assumed office and it culminated in the famous dharnas (sit-ins) in 2014 that lasted for many months and even led to violent clashes promising overthrow of Nawaz Sharif’s government using force. Once the election’ rigging saga came to an end, the Panama Papers saga started. It led to the disqualification of the Prime Minister, a controversial judicial decision in July 2017 and a new Prime Minister is at the helm of affairs now. Elections are due in 2018, yet calls for snap polls have begun.

In other words, if we assess contemporary politics from 2008-2017, two successive political governments with a wide array of provincial governments and coalitions did not enjoy the policy space in an environment of political stability.

Census results have shown the frightening levels of population explosion in Pakistan that requires not only effective government plans for population control but also absorption of millions of youth in the job market every year. Pakistan’s exports are falling and the debt level rising. The plans to spur economic growth to deal with these challenges by planning for economic growth, industrialisation and pro-poor planning are simply missing.

It is high time that civilian and political forces include perseverance of political stability as our prime national interest. Any set of institutions who are continuing to deprive Pakistan of its political stability are acting against Pakistan’s national interest. Political governments will only plan well when they know that not only will they be able to complete their respective terms without being challenged every so often and they might even be re-elected if they perform well. And if they don’t perform well, they will be voted out. Unless such policy space is allowed to political governments through ensuring stability, political governments will not be able to plan long-term economic growth or deliver on such plans.

The writer has a social science background and can be reached on twitter @FoqiaKhan

Published in Daily Times, September 27^th 2017.