Nothing But Uncertainty

Author: Zafar Malik

The Election Commission of Pakistan has initiated final preparations for the electoral process. Letters have been written to provincial chief secretaries informing them of the requirements for the provision of electoral staff. The process of meetings with representatives of political parties has been completed. Apparently, there is no doubt that there are any obstacles remaining for the conduct of general elections on February 8, 2024, and no one can delay them.

Pakistan’s political parties are gearing up to enter the electoral arena. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has formed a manifesto committee under the leadership of Senator Irfan Siddiqui, and so far, this party is actively visible in the political arena regarding the electoral process. Regarding the February 2024 elections, PML-N is also the most vocal in anticipating that, inevitably, the helm of power will be in its hands in the event of election results. Negotiations with the forces that will decide the transfer of power have already been concluded.

The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is busy engaging in a seemingly futile and petty struggle against the opposition of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to showcase a facade of discord. Within it, the effects of an unexpected rebellion are also becoming apparent. A statement from Bilawal Bhutto against the party’s “Baba” leaders has created an unforeseen situation. Although there seems to be a growing rift between Zardari and Bilawal, the possibilities of it having significant consequences are quite limited. Because in this power struggle, “Aik Zardari Sab Pe Bhaari” (Zardari holds considerable influence).

The Jamaat-e-Islami is actively raising funds for the mujahideen in Gaza, but sometimes its leader, Siraj-ul-Haq, issues strong statements against rising inflation in the country.

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is busy engaging in a seemingly futile and petty struggle against the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to showcase a facade of discord.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is the only distinct political party that is currently under severe pressure and scrutiny. PTI, prior to coming into power, had thoroughly enjoyed the establishment’s unconditional love, but now it is paying the price for it. The leadership of PTI would not be facing this situation if it had done some groundwork before coming into power.

If its economic experts critically assessed and devised practical wisdom to address Pakistan’s economic issues, rather than making empty claims and engaging in rhetoric, then their party would not have to face the embarrassment that they did just a few months after coming into power. Facing the situation closely, the establishment, which they encountered shortly after gaining power, would not have to sideline their representative from the finance minister’s chair. On the other hand, it would not compel legislation to achieve complete control over the autonomy of the State Bank of Pakistan in the name of the IMF.

The incompetence of the PTI and the clever tactics of the current establishment have shown the 240 million people on this day that the party which was once the apple of the establishment’s eye during the 2018 elections, and for which efforts were made to an alarming extent to bring it to the seat of power, was then manipulated and controlled for four years. Now, tolerating the existence of this party has become impossible for the establishment.

On May 9, in response to the arrest of the Chairman of the PTI, its supporters created chaos across the country. The way national institutions were targeted, and the memorials of Pakistan’s martyrs were attacked, undoubtedly, is an issue on which any patriotic Pakistani cannot adopt a lenient approach. However, the poison was not injected into the hearts of thousands of PTI workers and supporters in a single day. Extensive preparation was made for this purpose, but when the entire sketch was set, the PTI and its leadership were sitting comfortably in the lap of the establishment, enjoying the pleasures of power. The establishment was pampering it like a cherished child.

Are those not responsible who turned a blind eye to this entire affair and continued the organized training of thousands of men and women for activities against national interests?

Now, on one hand, there is an attempt to experiment with political entities like the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party, and on the other hand, preparations have been made for the children of the establishment, such as MQM, GDA, and BAP, to be placed in the lap of the PML-N so that, instead of chanting their popular slogan “respect the vote,” they once again become pawns and fulfill the agenda given by the establishment. The interesting part is that the PML-N is fully prepared and available once again to be used in this entire process.

The interesting thing is that the caretaker government of Pakistan, whose constitutional responsibility includes holding elections within the stipulated period in the country, has fully absolved itself of any responsibility in this matter. Their clear stance is that the Election Commission is primarily responsible for conducting general elections in the country, and the caretaker government’s responsibility in this matter is to assist the Election Commission.

On the other hand, the caretaker government continues to take consistent actions regarding the country’s economic and political future and foreign affairs, which do not fall within its purview because its role is to manage day-to-day affairs. From exposing corruption to waging a war against terrorism and dealing with the issue of illegally resident migrants in the country, these are the types of matters that will give the upcoming government a tangled tree in the form of a challenge. Its long, disorderly branches and spread-out roots, intertwined with the tendrils that emanate from them, cannot be easily contained or controlled.

Despite the fact that the Election Commission of Pakistan has announced the date of February 8 for the conduct of general elections, it is evident that the electoral process will only commence when it is assured that the political party whose victory has been predetermined for this purpose will reach the destination of power.

However, the question is, on what hope will Pakistani voters decide to go to the polling stations on February 8?

Will the group prepared to shoulder the burden of managing the power struggle be able to lead Pakistan out of this crisis?

Do they have comprehensive practical wisdom to address the country’s ongoing economic, political, diplomatic, and security challenges?

Will the establishment step back by handing over matters to the incoming elected government? And will the decision-making process be entrusted to civilian leadership?

With uncertainty looming, Pakistan’s political parties are moving towards the electoral process half-heartedly. In such a situation, the people do not see any view other than uncertainty in the coming days because the February 2024 election is unlikely to offer anything other than uncertainty.

The writer is a veteran journalist based in Islamabad. He writes on social, political, economic, defence and strategic developments across the South Asian region. He can be reached through email at zm.journalist@gmail.com

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