Daily Times

The US is the primary ‘boogeyman’ in North Korean propaganda. Totalitarian regimes need an arch-enemy to fit their nationalistic narrative around and against which the population can be united. Kim Jong Un needs the US to act like it’s enemy, so it is quite likely that the ongoing bellicose rhetoric will escalate even further

The escalation in the war of words between the United States and North Korea reached a new pinnacle this past week. The most recent addition in the verbal hostilities came from North Korean Foreign Minister (FM) Ri Yong Ho, who stated that it was inevitable that North Korea would launch a missile at US mainland. The statement was issued at a speech at the UN general assembly, a platform which was used days earlier by US President Donald Trump. Trump had threatened North Korea with total destruction if it didn’t cease it’s defiance of the United States and its allies.

The US is the primary ‘boogeyman’ in North Korean propaganda. Totalitarian regimes need an arch-enemy to fit their nationalistic narrative around and against which the population can be united. Kim Jong-un needs the US to act like its enemy, so it is quite likely that the ongoing bellicose rhetoric will escalate even further. Trump has already sent US bombers to fly in international waters along the North Korean coast in a provocative display of American military power. Undeterred, the North Korean regime threatened to shoot down the bombers even if they didn’t enter American airspace. Trump has also belittled Kim Jong-un as a ‘Rocket Man’, to which Kim responded by referring to Trump as a ‘dotard’. As of now, there seem to be more insults than bombs involved.

According to experts the roots of this current standoff can be found in the ‘stability-instability paradox’, according to which nuclear weapons deter war, as was witnessed during the cold war. At the same time, threats of war and other provocative behaviour go up. This is why Kim thinks he can get away with threatening history’s greatest military juggernaut with nuclear annihilation.

Kim also knows that as long as he is being backed by China, he can keep upping the ante. Both China and Russia haven’t displayed any sign of worry regarding the nuclear threats, with Japan on the other end on the spectrum. Russia has even spoken against unilateral US action, insisting that dialogue is the only way forward. Additionally, Putin has refused to cease Russia’s oil exports to North Korea. Beijing is more open to using sanctions to reign in North Korea. The Japanese are planning remilitarization, and its defence ministry is intent on acquiring land-based Aegis Ashore defence systems.

According to experts, the roots of this current standoff can be found in the ‘stability-instability paradox’, according to which nuclear weapons deter war, as was witnessed during the Cold War. At the same time, threats of war and other provocative behaviour go up. This is why Kim thinks he can get away with threatening history’s greatest military juggernaut with nuclear annihilation
Kim is too stubborn to put a stop to the ongoing brinkmanship, and may incite the US to take pre-emptive action. If this happens, the ensuing destruction would be, in Trump’s words ‘unimaginable’.

The major players need to play their role to prevent that situation from arising. Neither very hard, nor very soft approaches will work here. There is a need to be prudent and pragmatic. The Chinese have suggested that the US cease joint military exercises with South Korea, in exchange for North Korea agreeing to not carry out more missile tests.

It has also been standard practice to ignore the North Korean regime’s repression and cruelty towards its citizens. This has been ongoing since long before nuclear weapons and ICBM’s from North Korea became a believable threat. This is ironic since North Korean’s are suffering under one of the most repressive regimes in the world, which alone justifies isolating or forcing change in the country. It is ironic that those who claim to be champions of human rights remained quiet regarding the barbarities in North Korea right until it became capable of threatening their strategic interests.

The writer is currently working as Research Affiliate in Strategic Vision Institute and can be reached at ubaid@thesvi.org

Published in Daily Times, September 30^th 2017.