Daily Times

Justice Umar Ata Bandial, the former Chief Justice of Pakistan, strived for several months to ensure the conduct of the country’s general elections. However, luck favored the new Chief Justice; Qazi Faez Isa, as he had the honor of finally having the President and the Chief Election Commissioner agree on one date. Whatever the means, the highlight remains that the date for the general elections has finally been announced. Resultantly, everyone seems to be getting geared up for the next big thing – The General Elections.

While the political parties, being the biggest stakeholders, get themselves busy drafting their electoral manifestos, creating effective media coverage plans, and allocating advertisement budgets, the trickle-down effect will also be significant. Small-scale shopkeepers and hawkers make good use of business opportunities that come with social mobilization. Just like a smart voter who dines with both parties and votes only his caste, these vendors now cater for all parties alike regardless of their affiliation. Substantial economic activity is likely to be generated as orders for firewood, rice and meat go in advance. Transporters will make money by ferrying the voters to and from the polling stations. The makers of billboards and banners will benefit as will those setting up the mega-stages, lighting and sound systems.

The spotlight will however remain focused on only two individuals, the two Ex-Prime Ministers; Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan. As the former is busy making sure he returns to the country’s top office for an unprecedented fourth term, the latter is facing court cases and may be sentenced to up to ten years in prison if convicted by a court of law. How they both ended up with their present conundrums is a story of political shrewdness, foresight, obscured diplomacy with those wielding real power and above all, temperament. Recent years saw that Nawaz Sharif; being politically wiser of the two, stopped digging any further the moment he found himself stuck in a hole while Imran Khan, not being a conventional politician, did exactly the opposite, eventually ending up in Adiala Jail.

Politics, like a game of chess, has infinite possibilities. This is particularly true for Pakistan where the scorned leaders have come back stronger and the assassinated ones live forever.

Nawaz Sharif’s third term in office wasn’t much different from the first two. Imran Khan, at that time, was quick to grab the opportunity and embarked on a series of protests and public rallies. As the political see-saw propelled Imran Khan to the status of a messiah, a promised prince having the antidote to all that ailed the country’s economy, education, health and justice systems, the space for Nawaz Sharif shrunk to zero. The Panama Papers prepared the ground for judicial disqualification and subsequent imprisonment of an already disgraced Prime Minister, leaving his party in disarray. Many political pundits wrote him off.

Imran Khan came to power in 2018 amid hushed allegations of large-scale pre-poll and mid-poll rigging. The first two years of his government were rife with members of his party making proud claims of being on the ‘same page’ as the establishment until it all turned sour on a disagreement with the Army Chief over the appointment of the DG ISI.

As things started spinning out of his control, the see-saw started rising again, only this time it was to favour his opponents. His government was eventually sent packing through a vote of no-confidence and was replaced by a coalition of several parties. The role played by various actors in his premature ouster from the office is still uncertain, what is certain is that his ultimate fate will be decided in the next few weeks.

Experts closely observing the political landscape in the federal capital believe that Nawaz Sharif has managed to reverse the time to 2016. There is little disagreement that this was accomplished through a two-pronged approach where his daughter publicly challenged the hegemony while his diplomatic brother negotiated the terms for peace. The involvement of international players befriended by the Sharifs during their stints in power and the years in exile also seem to have played a role. What remains to be seen is the final call from the courts. It is widely believed that his disqualification will be struck down by the courts in either a reversal of the judgment or through a reinterpretation restricting the disqualification period to one term. The courts are, however, yet to make a call.

Many experts in constitutional law believe that Nawaz Sharif is likely to succeed in getting his disqualification reversed as the judgment against him, particularly in the Al-Azizia reference, is based on weak grounds as he was disqualified from receiving a salary which he never received; a fact established during the trial and acknowledged by the court at that time.

On the other hand, Imran Khan’s situation doesn’t look similar. Among the major cases against him, the Tosha Khana case doesn’t seem to carry much weight and is unlikely to pass scrutiny at the top courts. What should keep his lawyers awake at night is the Cipher case; where he is accused of mishandling the state secrets, failing to ensure their safe custody and manipulating them for political gain. The most major player of the Cipher saga; the PM’s Principal Secretary Azam Khan, has already turned on him. As Imran Khan languishes in the Adiala Jail, his party continues to fracture with senior leaders jumping ship daily.

Politics, like a game of chess, has infinite possibilities. This is particularly true for Pakistan where the scorned leaders have come back stronger and the assassinated ones live forever. The outcome of the ongoing round is yet unknown and only time will tell if this would be the end of Imran Khan’s political career. The only constant in the ever-changing political equation is the millions of impoverished Pakistanis who continue to suffer regardless of the party in power, or even the system of governance. Nawaz Sharif’s rise to power seems inevitable. Will he be able to provide relief to a populace fast losing hope in this debt-ridden nation?

The writer is a veteran journalist based in Islamabad. He writes on social, political, economic, defence and strategic developments across the South Asian region. He can be reached at zm.journalist@gmail.com