Daily Times

The new world order established at the end of Cold War (CW), under the able leadership of the sole super power of the time, the US, is faced with serious challenges, and has plunged into a dis-order. International institutions responsible for safety and security of the states have failed miserably particularly for the relatively smaller and weaker states. However, this is happening too soon, because the “average age of empires … according to Sir John Bagot Glubb, is 250 years. After that, empires always die, often slowly but overwhelmingly from overreaching in the search for power.”

Perhaps, the history will prove my assertions that the American Empire could not last even for half a century. The causes of its failure may be found in its irresponsible behaviour towards the international system. As a sole super power for over thirty years now, it was the responsibility of the US to shape the world that was more stable, secure, and prosper, particularly the developing world. Instead, the successive US Administrations decided to use the hard power under the realist paradigm to make the relatively smaller states pliant and submissive to its diktats.

The silent rise of china has given a hope of a just international system which would be more inclusive and equitable for the relatively smaller and weaker states. The two decade of US involvement in two full blown wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, was quietly utilized by China to consolidate its political and economic power, particularly in the less developed regions. Today, China stands taller than any other power, when it invites to the world leaders for a red-carpet welcome at the celebrations of decade long success story of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

International institutions responsible for safety and security of the states have failed miserably particularly for the relatively smaller and weaker states.

While China is enjoying the goodwill of the majority of the developing world, the US is still warning the world it can fight two wars concurrently, because it is a strong state. It is this mindset that is drowning the US under its debt weight and the arrogance of hard power. When the Soviet Union fell apart, there was no dearth of hard power on its inventory, however, it could not sustain the load of its military might.

One thing is not understandable. There are over 3000 think tanks in the US-led west, so why are they unable to convince the successive US Administrations that they are faced with a different kind of adversary. It is no more a clash of civilization, but a war between two philosophies. One is led by the Machiavellian concept that, “It is better to defeat the enemy by hunger than with steel; in such victory fortune counts more than virtue.” However, the US does not stop here, and causes hunger to the relatively weaker states, and uses steel to turn them into ruins.

The challenger is following the precepts of Sun Tzu, which says that the war is an extremely dangerous exercise and acme of skill lies in winning the war without fighting. The followers of Sun Tzu are following his revised version: shared vision, uniformed progress, inclusive development, productive engagement, etc. Hence, there is no reason for the developing nations not to follow the Chinese model that is aimed at giving them self-confidence, and equitable distribution of wealth so that they can stand on their feet and free themselves from the curse of economic strangulation by the global north.

The process of de-dollarization has started and reached some 15 percent, however, the US currency is not likely to fade away soon, but this is a irreversible process and it is a matter f time that smaller states will return to trade on barter and multiple currencies.

Let there be no doubt that the US has the strongest military that is unparallel in the human history, however it needs to be sustained, particularly when it is tasked with military operations offshore. Secondly, the biggest asset that the US has is its technological creativity and innovation in space and communications. However, the challenger is fast catching up due to readily available resources to be spent on research and development and at least two Chinese universities have broken the barrier set for quality education by entering into the best fifteen educational institutions in the world.

Therefore, it is matter of time that China will catch up the US in all those domains on which the US had the monopoly since the end of Cold War. Perhaps, the time running out for the US to correct the course, and avert the world plunging into a dis-order, which will not only for a few stakeholders but the entire human race.

The writer is the author of the book ‘Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan’.