Daily Times

In the current year, perhaps no region has garnered more attention and discussion than the Middle East. It has witnessed a significant transformation, characterized by a spectrum of realignments and reconciliations among states, skillfully maneuvering between the realms of conflict and diplomacy. What is striking is the emergence of a new key player, China, whose presence has left an indelible mark on the regional dynamics. The entry was interpreted as a result of the waning influence of the United States in the Middle East that has set the stage for a complex interplay of global interests and regional powers in this pivotal geopolitical theater. The Middle East has witnessed unprecedented transformations, challenging preconceived notions. Notably, from the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran to Bashar al-Assad’s reentry into the Arab League, these developments have reshaped the regional landscape and fostered a sense of camaraderie among regional powers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and others.

Adding to the intrigue, the Saudi-Israel talks emerged, sponsored by Washington, countering arguments of the U.S. retreating from the Middle East. This development, a shock in itself, took center stage in regional discourse and debates. However, as talks progressed and appeared to redefine regional alliances, a sudden twist occurred. Amid this diplomatic maneuvering, the October 6 Hamas’ mega offensive on Israel cast new uncertainties on the evolving dynamics of Saudi-Israel rapprochement which were masterminded under U.S. guidance and now hang in a precarious balance.

In the intricate dance of diplomacy, timing often proves to be the pivotal factor. At this juncture, the Israel-Saudi talks had been steadily gaining momentum, with indications pointing toward a prospective deal in the making. The Israel-Saudi relations have oscillated over time – swinging between diplomacy, moments of disengagement, and rounds of dialogue. However, this time appeared to hold the promise of a breakthrough, an agreement that could fundamentally alter the course of their relationship. Yet, it was precisely this critical juncture that faced the looming threat of deal to derailment.

The Middle East has witnessed unprecedented transformations, challenging preconceived notions.

This time Tel Aviv and Riyadh talks had journeyed a considerable distance from their initial encounters. The relationship was made complex due to the opposing views of the leadership for one another. It was in July 2023 when Netanyahu and Biden held a conversation over the phone for the first time in seven months- as the relations between the two were at a deadlock over the Netanyahu coalition’s judicial overhaul plans. This was followed by an invitation at the UN sideline meetings to the White to discuss some of the ‘hard issues’ and ‘preserving the path to a negotiated two-state solution.’ Biden had tagged some members of Israel’s cabinet as “extreme”, and to an extent blamed them for the rising violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. Moreover, the Biden administration has thus far rebuked the two most conservative members of Netanyahu’s coalition-Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. On the other hand, being a presidential candidate in 2019, Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia ‘a pariah state’ over their involvement in Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal killing. Similarly, Washington and Riyadh disagreed with the Kingdom’s decision to make three large oil production cuts at times when prices were unusually high. Be it, Muhammad bin Salman or Netanyahu, Biden has had critical relations with both being an obstacle in forging relations with them as compared to his predecessor, Donald Trump. Moreover, Biden and his Democratic Party have a less adversarial stance towards Riyadh’s and Tel Aviv’s common adversary, Iran who has been pushing to revive the JCPOA.

Overcoming all these obstacles, the three sides pipelined to negotiate. MBS demanded a military pact- a NATO-style defense deal with security guarantees, arms deals, and a civil nuclear agreement in exchange for opening ties with Israel. As per reports, the U.S. had shown the nod over the defense demand and could have bestowed it the status of a ‘major non-NATO ally,’ the one already being enjoyed by Bahrain, Israel, and Pakistan. However, Saudi Arabia demanded nothing short of concrete guarantees of U.S. safeguarding in the event of an attack, akin to the missile strikes on its oil installations on September 14, 2019, which sent shockwaves through global markets. Over the years, Saudi Arabia has been a staunch advocate of a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. MBS remarked in an interview for ‘The Atlantic’ that it looked to Israel as a ‘potential ally’ provided the rights of Palestinians were addressed. In September, he remarked, ‘Every day we get closer’ to normalizing ties with Israel while reinforcing Palestinian issue was still a “very important” part of US-brokered talks.

The Kingdom has consistently maintained that recognition of Israel must be contingent upon a resolution that safeguards the rights of the Palestinian people. However, in the latest round of talks, there was a notable shift in Saudi Arabia’s stance. This time, the kingdom sought more than just a resolution benefiting the Palestinians; it aimed to secure its interests as well, with Palestinian issues at a backstep. The Kingdom’s fervor to secure the deal could be analyzed as it had agreed to raise oil output to secure the Israel deal. Not only were this, according to the Wall Street Journal, the Israeli officials coordinating a proposal in the background with the Biden administration to set up a U.S-run uranium enrichment operation in Saudi Arabia. Israel’s technological companies’ investment in the Saudi NEOM Project and the visit by the Israeli communication minister to the Kingdom is now no secret. Whereas, Iranian leader Khamenei had cautioned Riyadh against ‘betting on losing horse.’

Moreover, Biden was quick to respond, realizing the potential of a trilateral diplomatic victory to showcase before the 2024 US Election building up on Trump’s Abraham Accords one that could also significantly contain Chinese influence in the region. Apart from being the biggest, most powerful, and richest Arab state, Saudi Arabia which also is termed the de-facto leader of the Muslim world, its recognition of Israel would certainly be instrumental in countering the view that the presence of a Jewish state in mostly the Muslim world is illegitimate and helping to open the doors for states like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

Amidst all these speculations and headlines, on 6 October, when Israel had been on a national vacation for the last 7 days, commemorating the 1973 Yom Kippur War were taken by shock. Hamas launched a ‘complex and coordinated attack,’ firing almost 500 rockets at Israel. This surprise infiltration from Gaza by land, sea, and air has compelled Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to declare a ‘state of war.’ Hence diverting Israel’s attention to the war. This also further complicated the situation for Saudis, pulling them back to the starting position. When there is a major Palestinian crisis, it becomes impossible for the leadership of Saudi Arabia to publicly break ranks from the Islamic and Arabic camps. By all accounts, these Israeli counter-offensives will be ruthless. Riyadh has called for ‘immediate de-escalation.’ The use of the phrases: ‘Israeli occupying forces,’ ‘depriving the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights’ and once again repeating the demand for a ‘two-state solution’ amidst tensions shows Saudi Arabia has a side to play in the conflict. To add up, the Israel-Hamas escalation has endangered the oil market’s hope for a Saudi-Israel Deal. Whereas, Washington in contrast has offered Israel “all appropriate means of support” Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Gaza’s governing body, Hamas, asserted on Al Jazeera television that the normalization agreements entered into by Arab states with Israel would not bring an end to the ongoing conflict. Palestinian Authority’s President Mahmoud Abbas who had been too soft with Israel has lost its ground to Hamas recently and come as a strong force to reckon with reasserting its dominance

On the other hand, Iran labeled it a “proud operation” and a “great victory, “and congratulated Hamas (the biggest financial supporter being Iran) for ‘the legitimate defense’ of the Palestinians. Though, through another perspective, this may be a win for the Chinese who inspired the Saudis and Iranians to blossom their ties but does that mean that Iranian support to Hamas would bolster the claim of Iran sponsoring terrorism with the apprehension of Hezbollah to play a further role in simmering the tensions?

Certainly, where, the complexities, intricacies, and the weight of history were framing the Saudi-U.S-Israeli discussions, with the finish line in sight, they now stood at the crossroads, where the fate of their budding alliance hang in the balance.

Conclusively, currently, it appears very unlikely there will be any near-term normalization of diplomatic relations as was expected. This also has repeated the history that war-fighting usually takes precedence over peacemaking in Middle Eastern affairs.

The writer is an independent researcher based in Islamabad, Pakistan. She can be contacted at sibrataurus@gmail.com