Daily Times

Short of a preventive strike on North Korea to destroy its nuclear sites and weapons and kill its leadership with all its horrible consequences, there is now a dangerous eye-for-an-eye stalemate of sorts on the Korean peninsula

The situation on the Korean peninsula is becoming scarier by the day. If it were not that serious, it might make one chuckle at times. Trump, for instance, calling the North Korean leader “Little Rocket Man” for his testing of ballistic missiles and nuclear bombs, the last one said to have been a hydrogen bomb. Trump has also dubbed the North Korean leader a “mad man”, while Kim Jung-un has called Trump a “mentally deranged US dotard.” And to further reinforce the insult, Kim reportedly also called Trump ‘a mentally deranged person full of megalomania and complacency’ who is trying to turn the United Nations into a ‘gangsters’ nest, apparently for imposing all sorts of sanctions against North Korea.

This kind of schoolyard bullying might be ignored but for the fact that both the leaders are threatening to destroy the other side. North Korea has said that targeting the US with its rockets was ‘inevitable’, as the US Air Force bombers flew over waters close to the North Korean coast in a show of force, which further rattled Pyongyang threatening to shoot US planes even in international space near their coast. Pyongyang has also threatened to test a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific. On the US side, Trump has tweeted that the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ‘won’t be around much longer’, thus threatening the regime and the country with oblivion.

North Korea’s Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho, has commented that Trump himself was on a ‘suicide mission’, after the US President said the North Korean leader was on such a mission. And Trump tweeting that, “military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded, should North Korea act unwisely.” There is always this caveat that either party will be reacting to the madness of the other side.

The escalatory rhetoric and military preparations on both sides has the potential of creating a momentum of its own, even though it is all clear that a war over the Korean peninsula will have devastating consequences that might not remain confined simply to that country or the region

But the big question is how to interpret when rhetoric has ceased to be rhetoric and is about to enter the realm of reality? One thing is clear, though, that both the United States and North Korea are in a state of readiness for some sort of a military conflict, if and when it eventuates. And South Korea seems on a war footing too to face any attack from its neighbour. Speaking on South Korea’s Armed Forces Day, President Moon Jae-in reportedly said that his government was accelerating work on three fronts: a pre-emptive strike system known as Kill Chain that would target North Korean missile sites; an air and missile defence system; and a program devised to launch devastating strikes against North Korea’s military and political leadership. And then there is of course the massive US military presence in the country.

However, even without a nuclear breakout, South Korea’s capital, Seoul, with its population of about 10 million is within the easy artillery range of North Korea. The escalatory rhetoric and military preparations on both sides has the potential of creating a momentum of its own, even when it is all clear that a war over the Korean peninsula will have devastating consequences that might not remain confined simply to that country and the region.

There have been contradictory messages from the US side, with Trump going for the kill rhetoric while some of his cabinet trying, at times, to be reassuring to Pyongyang. For instance, while Trump was sending the “locked and loaded” for action message if Pyongyang continued its provocations, his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, and Secretary of Defence, Mattis, penned a joint op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, which sought to calm things down a bit. They wrote, “The US has no interest in regime change or accelerated reunification of Korea”.

In his recent China trip, Secretary Tillerson reportedly said that the US was in direct contact — without specifying its precise nature — to explore a diplomatic route, even though his boss, President Trump, immediately countermanded his peace initiative. Trump told his Secretary of State via twitter: “…that he is wasting his time in trying to negotiate with Little Rocket Man.” And he added ominously, “Save your energy Rex, we’ll do what has to be done.”

Despite such warlike rhetoric, the US is still relying on China to produce the desired results. Beijing lately has ratcheted up the pressure by the intensity and scope of its sanctions to dry up North Korea’s economic capacity to pursue its nuclear ambitions. But going by the past experience of sanctions and whatever else, Pyongyang, though, seems determined not to give up its nuclear course and; if Russian President, Vladimir Putin is right, as he reportedly said recently, North Korea would rather eat grass than accept denuclearisation.

And that is also the considered view of James Clapper, the former director of the US National Intelligence. In a long article titled, On the Brink, The New Yorker’s reporter Evan Osnos, quotes James Clapper, who visited Pyongyang in 2014, as telling him that, “The North Koreans are not going to give up their nuclear weapons. It’s a non-starter.” Clapper added, “Whether it’s pressuring, threatening, negotiating, or trying to leverage China, everybody’s tried all of that, and it’s not working.”

Apparently, short of a preventive strike on North Korea to destroy its nuclear sites and weapons and kill its leadership with all its horrible consequences, there is now a dangerous eye-for-an-eye stalemate of sorts on the Korean peninsula.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia

Published in Daily Times, October 4^th 2017.