Daily Times

As a nation accustomed to brief spells of respite followed by stumbling in the dark, dreary tunnel, caution and more caution remain the usual course of action. We are told by experts to not count the chickens before they hatch. No matter how promising the television tickers may appear, we tend to wait for the euphoria to die down, the haze to settle, and the other shoe to drop. A very pertinent case in point would be an endless round of speculations about when and how would brakes be pulled on the steady decline of the dollar in the currency market. Surely, the greenback cannot be resisted for long. On Friday, the State Bank of Pakistan reported dollar trading hands at Rs 277.62 in the interbank market. As I have repeatedly argued in the editorials printed on these very pages, far more reassuring than this depreciation against the rupee has been the decline in the open market, which gives an encouraging signal to the foreign exchange reserves. While an uproar seems to be gaining momentum from the importers’ benches as their demand for dollars tightens the screws on the exchange rate, most of this glowing success has ensued from an iron-clad, no-questions-asked, no-favours-entertained crackdown on all entities engaged in illicit transactions. Raiding exchange companies across the country and arresting whosoever is said to be involved in the black market activities, the state wishes to stabilise the foreign exchange market. It is heartening to see the actual demand and supply forces in the interbank market determine the true currency value given the State Bank of Pakistan is not acting as the power behind the throne. The horrors of the Dar days wherein his chest-thumping claims about singlehandedly rescuing the economy did little to substantial his gimmickry are still etched fresh in the collective memories. From this point onwards, only growth and actual growth hold the cards for Pakistan’s revival.

Between oiling the wheel of highly inefficient bureaucratic machinery and avoiding the plague of corruption, there’s a lot that needs to be done.

Considering how our policies struggle with consistency, it would take unprecedented hard work and unrelenting determination to see through the much-talked-about civil-military initiative Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). But, if God moving in mysterious ways manages to convince the ruling elite to uproot the status quo and prioritise economics over politics, we might be witness to a miracle, after all. With a much-needed breath of fresh air on the remittances front–a 5.3 per cent increase after a long-drawn-out declining trend–it can be hoped that confidence is beginning to return and people wish to be a part of the system they can trust. These numbers could be banked on as the state makes a case to prospective investors. Through a professionally-resourced platform, SIFC aims to cut through red tape and usher in a new chapter full of reforms and pro-business policies. The audacious goal of attracting 100 billion in FDI within three years and aspiring to achieve a nominal GDP of $1 trillion by fiscal year 2035 may seem too good to begin with. Talking about such large numbers does raise unnecessary hopes; influencing public sentiment without informing them about how a stitch in time would save nine and Rome was not built in a day. Still, looking past the usual frenzy dividing the entire landscape into ferocious optimists and pessimists, another group–the realists–agree that change can happen if allowed to happen. Victor Hugo once made history when he said, “No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.” By ensuring continuity of policies, providing timely facilitation to potential investors, removing bureaucratic hurdles, and offering a safe and secure environment to potential players, perhaps SIFC too would pave the way for prosperity to come knocking.

It goes without saying that Pakistan would have to learn from its mistakes of the past, most recently committed with regard to the CPEC Authority. Ten years since the project’s inception, we still stand miles away from reaping the fruits of the “game-changer” project. Although commendable initiatives have been taken, we are still in the process of renegotiating deals and trying to entice investors. Between oiling the wheel of highly inefficient bureaucratic machinery and avoiding the plague of corruption, there’s a lot that needs to be done. A business should not have to wait 113 days to secure an electricity connection, 125 days for a construction permit and 105 days to get a property registered. Delays on the ground are considerably more backbreaking. According to notes available on the IMF website, “Both economic theory and recent empirical evidence suggest that FDI has a beneficial impact on developing host countries.” Now that the groundwork has been laid and the resolve to change the future reiterated, it would serve the political leaders to do their homework on how to improve the investment climate before they hop aboard the election campaign. Like it or not, “It’s (always) the economy, stupid!”

The writer is Oped Editor (Daily Times) and can be reached at durenayab786@gmail.co. She tweets @dureakram