Daily Times

PTI Chief Imran Khan’s demand for fresh elections has generally been opposed by political parties across the political spectrum. Imran Khan’s incessant demands since 2013 for dissolution of assemblies and fresh elections might be major reason for the opposition. However, there are many valid reasons for an election earlier than July-August next year.

In Parliamentary democracies across the world, votes are cast for party candidates in each constituency, but in reality they are cast for the party head. It is this leader of the winning party, or for that matter leaders of the parties in a coalition, who has the mandate and trust of the people to carry out affairs of the government. This trust is non transferable. The trust reposed on one leader of the party cannot be placed on all members of that party.  That is the reason most parliamentary democracies the new Prime Minister goes for fresh elections and gets his or her mandate from the electorate.

In 2013 Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif was the leader of the PML-N. The People voted for him to be the next Prime Minster and he got an overwhelming mandate. Unfortunately he was found guilty of a misstatement by the Supreme Court and was disqualified. His replacement, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, is hardworking, educated and a thorough gentleman. But he lacks the authority needed to guide the party and the government. He lacks the political power to make decisions on his own and has to look for a nod from Raiwind or London for even day to day workings of the government. This is affecting governance and decision making at a crucial time in the country’s history when are in need of bold and prompt decisions.

In Parliamentary democracies across the world, votes are cast for party candidates in each constituency, but in reality they are cast for the party head

Under the current schedule, the present assemblies will complete their tenure at the start of June next year. Then the present set up will be replaced by an interim caretaker government, an absurd novelty we invented to trivialize the democratic process. Polling will not be possible till the last week of July 2018 and it will take another month to install a new Prime Minister. That would mean the country will remain in a state of inaction and electioneering for another ten months. In between budgets will have to be passed by the end of June 2018.

The state of the economy is in dire conditions. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserve are depleting at an alarming rate. The current account deficit is at its peak and the Rupee is under stress. Pakistan’s exports are the lowest they have been in seven years, while imports twice as much as it exports the first time in history. In foreign relations, Pakistan is threatened with sanctions and isolation. Relations with all neighbours except China are at their lowest ebb. Relations with US are probably at their worst since the birth of the country.

In this diplomatic, security and economic situation we need a government with the full mandate of the people and a leader who can make decisions on his own. Unfortunately Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi is not a free dealer and his party leader, Nawaz Sharif is too marred with controversies to be able to effectively guide his party’s government at this critical juncture.

In the present diplomatic, security and economic situation we need a government with the full mandate of the people and a leader who can make decisions on his own. Unfortunately Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi is not a free dealer and his party leader, Nawaz Sharif is too marred with controversies to be able to effectively guide his party’s government at this critical juncture

A fresh election at this juncture will reduce the tenure of a caretaker setup from ten to three months.  Either another party will get a mandate from the people or the PML-N will be able to devise a setup where it’s Prime Minister will be able to make decisions on his own.

Another important event from now and June 2018 is the Senate elections to be held in February this year. The present electoral system does not bring an upper house representative of the provinces and areas it is supposed to represent. Senators elected by present provincial assemblies for the next six years will be even more unrepresentative. It is democratically imperative that provincial assemblies get a fresh mandate from the people before the Senate elections.

Provisional results of the population census held earlier this year have already been made public. The publication of final official results of the census will make its legally and constitutionally binding to hold elections after fresh distribution and delimitation of national and provincial assembly seats in accordance with the new census. The Election Commission says it will need six months to undertake a delimitation process. Before any delimitation constitution will have to be amendment to redistribute National Assembly seats in accordance with census report. Will such redistribution of seats be politically possible in an election year? Will it not be used to provoke ethnic, provincial and regional divides for narrow political gains?

In this background it would be dangerous to wait for the end of the tenure of present assemblies. Any such wait might result in an unscheduled delay in the elections. Therefore it would be wiser to hold elections before the publication of a census report and take up the issue of distribution and delimitation of seats later.

The President will complete his tenure on 8 September. Under the constitution, the Presidential elections are to be held no sooner than sixty days and not later than thirty days before the expiration the current President’s tenure. That means the Presidential election have to take place between July 8 and August 8. It has already been said that under the present schedule, the elections would most probably take place by the last week of July. The first meeting of the Assembly would take place by the third week of August. That would give a week or so to the next parliament to elect a new President. That is a tight schedule.

The PML-N is not going to gain much from waiting till May. The only argument might be that they will gain more seats in the Senate to enable them to amend the constitution. It is also being argued that with two-third majority in the Upper House, the PML-N will amend the constitution to nullify Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification. With the present numbers in provincial Assemblies, the PML-N and its allies are not going to achieve two thirds of support in the Senate and thus no such amendment is possible.

Like the distribution of national Assembly seats, other amendments in the constitution, especially deletion of sub section 1d to 1f of article 62 are needed. However that would not be possible in the present political environment. The time for such an exercise has been lost. Any hasty action now will have negative consequences and unite the forces that support these provisions.

In this background, the PMLN leadership and Prime Minister must start immediate consultations with PPP and PTI and other parties to set dates for fresh elections in December or January. An election a few months ahead of schedule under a national consensus will strengthen, not mar the democratic process.

The writer is a freelance columnist

Published in Daily Times, October 8^th 2017.