Daily Times

More than 1,500 representatives, heads of states, and government officials from 57 countries were in attendance at the first ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) summit that concluded in Beijing on Monday. The moot unfolded a huge economic agenda across continents. India intentionally skipped the moot after failing to dictate China on curtailing Pakistan’s role in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — a part of the OBOR.

The OBOR’s beginnings have certainly been historic. Pakistan shall take pride in building hype on the CPEC since the signing of the MoU in April 2015. No doubt Pakistan has played a key bridgehead for the OBOR strategy launch. The CPEC ‘litmus test’ worked very well for China just in two years with high hopes for Pakistan and many fears for others in the region and across the border.

Posing to be a hegemonic state in South Asia, India always attempts to manoeuvre in the region. But it has failed for the time being in the case of CPEC. The Chinese ambassador in New Delhi Luo Zhaohui had offered India to consider renaming CPEC — one route under which passes through Pakistani Kashmir. But, these remarks were shortly removed from the official website of China foreign office quite silently. Even, the Beijing spokesperson did not answer any question on the situation at a recent press conference. The only response was ‘please refer to the official statement on the website’. The Chinese intentions could have been to avoid any complications ahead of the OBOR summit. The statement also kept the door open to India.

I believe the sword is still hanging on the CPEC’s name. It’s doubtful that China could afford losing India out of the OBOR. Surely, the South Asian region’s largest country will be a part of the New Silk Road — the OBOR strategy only if the CPEC is renamed as the South Asia Economic Corridor (SAEC). That is likely to be done sooner. Then, what would be the fate of exclusive projects envisaged under the CPEC framework for Pakistan? Many believe that China means business. Though, Pakistanis also have unshakable trust in their country’s long cherished unconditional friendship with China.

Regardless of the name given to the economic corridor, Pakistan is destined to face the ‘economic revolution’ brewing in the region but it is not ready to fully benefit from it.

The total value of the CPEC projects has gone up to $54 billion from the $46 billion estimate before the announcement of the OBOR summit. Pakistan has also allocated about Rs160 billion matching funds for CPEC projects — besides a huge piece of land and other resources worth billions of dollars. Though, Pakistan has yet to calculate the environmental and social cost of the CPEC projects. Most of them still need to be made environment friendly.

The uncalculated cost includes loss of about 50,000 trees — that are to be chopped down to realign land set aside for the routes. As many as 7,000 containers moving daily on the 2,700 km road network are likely to add 36.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per annum to our atmosphere. The additional GHG emissions from CPEC-related projects will be 25 percent of total national emissions. The loss of trees and additional GHG emissions will speed up melting of glaciers — adversely affecting environment, agriculture, tourism, water system and general health in the Gilgit-Baltistan region.

In a recent statement, Pakistan Businessmen and Intellectuals Forum president Mian Zahid Hussain has already demanded the government to thoroughly study CPEC’s environmental impact.

Proper planning is required to get maximum benefit from CPEC projects, as slip-ups can inflict irreparable loss on the economy.

Every coin has two sides. Every development project brings benefits as well as some negative impacts. The problem with CPEC is that it is being projected as a coin with the same smiley face on both sides. We are being convinced that after the completion of this project Pakistan would become as rich as any country in the world could be. Every Pakistani would turn prosperous and wealthy. I believe that will not be so. Perhaps, some among those us engaged in decision making processes and CPEC-related financial transactions would become billionaires in rupee terms.

Our most visionary federal minister Ahsan Iqbal has repeatedly termed the CPEC a game changer in the region. Indeed, CPEC is rewriting the economic geography and regional integrity. But, for whom? Will all of us be able to harness benefits of investments being made in Pakistan? The land and resources of Pakistan will be extremely instrumental in realising the CPEC. The key question is about returns on these extremely valuable resources.

It’s really unfortunate that most ‘experts’ on CPEC and Pakistan-China bilateral relations are presenting only salient features of the project and ‘investments’ being made by our great friend China. But why are we hesitating in mentioning our contribution of funds, monetary value of land set aside for the corridor, environmental and social costs and other resources being poured in. What about the logical monetary value of the socio-political support?

We need to rethink and reposition Pakistan in the great game of OBOR against this backdrop.

The writer is an Islamabad-based policy advocacy, strategic communication and outreach expert. He can be reached at devcom.pakistan@gmail.com. He tweets @EmmayeSyed