Daily Times

While Gen Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto were finalising their power-sharing deal in Abu Dhabi, in the presence of certain guarantors, the US Congress was passing legislation that will put strict conditions on US aid to Pakistan.
The legislation, an extended form of the Pressler Amendment, is obviously a reversion to the era when semi-autonomous civilian governments were working under watchful US eyes, its military establishment in control of their key institutions. The civilian governments were there to take all the domestic and international blame.
The questions now are: What are the new conditions? Is the US justified in imposing them and are the restrictions going to impact Pakistan?
As far as the conditions are concerned, by saying that Pakistan should curb the proliferation of nuclear technology the US has reiterated the core of Pressler Amendment. Other key conditions are that Pakistan is required to secure “the borders of Pakistan to prevent the movement of militants and terrorists into other countries and territories and [for] effectively dealing with Islamic extremism.” Pakistan is also required to prove that Taliban, or any related successor organisation, has ceased to exist as an organisation capable of conducting military, insurgent or terrorist activities in Afghanistan from Pakistan.
To satisfy the Democratic Party’s so-called humanist sections, there are several other minor conditions attached to the aid bill. For example, Pakistan is asked to combat poverty and corruption; build effective government institutions, especially secular public schools; promote democracy and the rule of law, particularly at the national level; address the continued presence of Taliban and other violent extremist forces throughout the country, and maintain the authority of the government of Pakistan in all parts of its national territory.
Nonetheless, the most important of all the conditions is the elimination of the Taliban and its subsidiaries from Pakistan and FATA. The US President has to issue a waiver every year saying that Pakistan has either fulfilled the condition or is making honest efforts to do so. It is similar to the past when US presidents, bound by the Pressler Amendment, had to issue a waiver saying that Pakistan is not pursuing an atomic programme. They did so as long as Pakistan’s assistance was needed in Afghanistan, but stopped afterwards.
The US Congress feels justified in imposing such aid-conditions, arguing that it has pumped in $45 billions to combat Al Qaeda, Taliban and Islamic extremism. The recent events in Islamabad, in or relating to the Red Mosque, have shown that Pakistan has failed to eliminate terrorism and extremisms from the bordering areas of Afghanistan. Instead, Al Qaeda, Taliban and other extremist elements have not only regrouped in their traditional strongholds but have penetrated right into the heart of Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad.
It can be argued that the US is a victim of its own misplaced political strategy. Why has it taken so long to realise that the Musharraf ensemble is incapable of addressing the issues of jihad and religious extremism? Why did it not realise earlier that only a credible democratic process and genuine secular government can address these issues? But, as usual, the superpower will never confess to its own mistakes and instead will shift all responsibility to the client, coerced or conquered states. Symptomatically, now the entire American political spectrum holds the Iraqi government responsible for the failure to restore peace and no one blames the US invading forces. But that is how arrogant superpowers function.
Pakistan is in a fix again, similar to the one it was in during the 90s when it was the most sanctioned country in the world, US failures in pursuing an appropriate policy in Pakistan, its dismissal of the largest political parties like Pakistan, People’s Party (PPP) and PML (N), for so long and its singular dependence on Musharraf notwithstanding. The day the US announces any kind of sanctions Pakistan’s international standing in the international financial world will be reduced to zero, despite Shaukat Aziz’s so-called manoeuvrability. The US has the power to wreck the financial viability of states like Pakistan, which are addicted to foreign aid. It can ruin Pakistan’s foreign reserve assets by just allowing expatriates to use non-institutional channels for remittances. Whatever the Foreign Office and Khurshid Mahmood Kusuri are saying about the US conditions on aid is hollow impotent slogan-mongering.
The question is whether the Musharraf-Benazir combination can save the day, as envisaged by the US handlers. There are well-founded rumours that the US pushed both sides to finalise the deal and enforce it quickly. Whatever the government and PPP spokespersons have been saying about the Abu Dhabi meeting and deal is nothing but a disgrace. An arrangement between Musharraf and Benazir was agreed upon long ago; they met in Abu Dhabi because both, mistrustful of each other, wanted to finalise the deal in the presence of guarantors.
Whether on not the Musharraf-Benazir deal will be good for the democratic process or PPP, it is the best possible combination that the US can manage at the moment. The military operations against Al Qaeda, Taliban and other Islamic extremists need the backing of a credible political party. Benazir is willing to trade her corruption cases for providing such backing. It is another question whether it will work or not.
Most probably the coming months will witness the undoing of both Gen Musharraf and PPP, despite the Pakistani state’s inability to survive if jihadis and extremists are not eliminated from the scene. Musharraf’s undoing has its own dynamics but Benazir’s political downfall — she may be in power for a few years—will be brought about because of her abhorrence to addressing the economic and social problems facing the country. She is not only making a deal with Gen Musharraf’s non-democratic rule; she is committing herself again to the economic model that has brought the country to the ongoing crisis — the economic model that has left no choice for the poor but suicide, jihad, begging and robbery.

The writer can be reached at manzurejaz@yahoo.com