Daily Times

The earthshakes have been jolting Pakistani terrains since early 2023, and the trigger-happy seismic waves seem to be holding back no punches. Though we’re already into the last months of 2023, these palpitations are eliciting spine-chilling tales unremittingly. In January alone, the federal capital experienced three straight shocks when the ground jolted back and forth. In March, another power-packed wave hit the deck while people were out shopping as the holy month of Ramzan drew near. The fifth shock in a row in March, and boy, the earth rattled like a rambling pendulum and the terrains juddered, so on and so forth, it seemed as if something was cooking underneath by all odds.

Talking about the federal capital of Pakistan, Islamabad – a metropolis situated at a stone’s throw away from the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) fault and constructed on a geological fault line cutting through Punjab – from Rawat, Islamabad to Kashmir – the signs omen bad news. The locality isn’t ideal for holding up the brunt of a whopping 1.5 million people, ever growing in numbers.

Let’s tap some history sheets, looking as unpitying as the earthquakes, yet worth noticing!

The historical account reveals a once blooming metropolis, mimicking Valdivia, Chile, where everything looked a pink of perfection until the first crack on the ground was induced on 22 May 1960. No one knew what was brewing in the subsurface approximately 100 miles (160 km) off the coast of Chile, parallel to the city of Valdivia. All hell broke loose once the roaring earthquake struck the peripheries of the Chilean coast, lasted 10 minutes and actuated a massive tsunami with waves up to 25 meters (82 feet). It smashed Hilo, Hawaii in pieces and binged precious lives there and then.

Though the geological outlooks of Islamabad and Mimic Valdivia are diametric, there is something pretty relatable!

When Doxiadis Associates, the Greek firm, set foot in Islamabad around the edge of Margallah Hills–consisting of ridges of Jurassic-to-Eocene ages with complexly thrusted, folded, and generally overturned outcrops–they had preconceived what was cooking deep down as they scoped the 16,00-m altitude lanky hills. A further dig revealed that the twin cities (Islamabad and Rawalpindi) were prone to frequent earthquakes of which the epicentre was not far away – the Hindu Kush area. The Anti-Seismic Construction Problem – Book 54 of the Islamabad Master Plan – provided them with a plethora of discourses regarding earthquakes happening from 100-150 miles vertically. The code picked up by Doxiadis brought out some unfeigned eye-openers. It quoted that “if Islamabad would be built on belts of deposits that dated back to the Cretaceous period, it would expose it to the high absorption of seismic energy, provided by the faults of the Cretaceous- Eocene formations, in the subsurface.”

Islamabad isn’t ideal for holding up the brunt of a whopping 1.5 million people.

This is why, probably, Doxuadis tagged Islamabad as a ‘Red Zone’ while developing the master plan of the federal capital in 1961 – only to see their tagging contorted and rather twisted by the local authorities later on. The planning commission paid a deaf ear and rather insisted on negating geotechnical and geological studies and laid the foundation stone of perhaps one of the most ill-constructed cities on planet Earth. The impunities meted out in studies got flouted in the face as they were never honoured. According to the studies, if urbanization planning followed standard measures laid down by the book, the constructions in the Federal Capital would stand chances to hold out vicious strikes of earthquakes originating in the Hindu Kush Region. This edge has been lost as 90 per cent of vertical construction fails to comply with basic anti-seismic rules proposed by Doxiadis. As a result, the city is teetering on the edge of an absolute hazard that is throwing fits!

The term ‘Red Zone’, however, became popular with the impotent administration for the wrong reasons as they named an elite concavity of city as Red Zone.

Do we have a case study?

Yes, Margalla Towers Flats is a prominent case study. In 2005, the sky scrapper got flattened by a bumpy wave wreaking havoc on indwellers during the unprecedented Kashmir Earth Quake – one of the major shocks perishing 80,000 people in the blink of an eye. Even distance from the epicentre couldn’t save Islamabad from being badly hit. Despite the epicentre located approximately 105 km north-northeast of Islamabad and waves journeying over 100 km long terrain, few jolts turned out to be enough to decimate Margalla Towers, tout de suite.

It seems a unique coincidence exists between the timelines of devastating earthquakes that occurred in the last 20-30 years. This mysterious gap looks a tad fictional yet offers noetic leads based on adequate evidence rather than mere surmises.

According to this eye-opening investigation, it is evident that since the start of the 21st century, major earthquakes have followed a mysterious gap of a few months to two years. This cycle of periodically arranged major devastating events kicked off on Jan. 26, 2001, and continued happening till recently. All fourteen major earthquakes over fifteen years maintained a time gap of a few months to two years.

Let’s throw a panoramic glance over the history of major earthquakes that happened in the last 23 years. This data has been taken from a report published by News Week Pakistan:

On January 10, 2023, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 struck offshore near Maluku, Indonesia, at a depth of 105.1 km. On 14 August 2021, a 7.2m earthquake hit the Tiburon Peninsula in the Caribbean nation of Haiti. A shallow, large earthquake struck the neck of the Minahasa Peninsula, Indonesia on the 28th of September 2018. On April 25, 2015, a 7.8m quake in Nepal killed almost 8,900 people. Similarly, the twin earthquakes with magnitudes 6.3 and 6.4 respectively left 306 dead and more than 3,000 injured near the Iranian city of Tabriz on August 11, 2012. On March 11, 2011, the Tsunami induced on the northeast coast of Japan killed 18,900 people. An earthquake of 7.2 magnitude rocked eastern Turkey leaving more than 600 dead and at least 4,150 injured in 2011.

In January 2010, a 7m earthquake tore apart Haiti while leaving 300,000 dead. In 2010, a 6.9-magnitude quake hit northwest China’s Qinghai province whereupon 3,000 people were killed. In May 2008, a quake measuring 8.0 smashed China’s southwest province of Sichuan with a record number of causalities – 87,000. On May 27, 2006, a powerful quake in Indonesia’s Yogyakarta region killed 6,000 and left 1.5 million homeless…

Some mistakes are irreparable and the construction of Islamabad outflanks the rest. On scientific grounds, the city stands minimal chances of avoiding a major earthquake, which now seems impending. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the government can surely take some if they understand what is loading in the subsurface!

The writer can be reached at mbilal.isbpk@gmail.com and Facebook/mbilal.16