Daily Times

After the decision made by the PPP at Naudero to participate in the January 8 elections, the mists seem to be slowly lifting from the political landscape in Pakistan. The mainstream parties, including the JUIF and ANP, bothered by the prospect of a resurgence of the rejectionist lobby, have heaved a sigh of relief and announced their resolve to stay the course. The decision to participate in the elections made by the PMLN has further helped in clarifying the political choices in Pakistan. Thus all parties controlling almost all of the votes in the country are once again in the field for January 8.
Originally, the PMLQ had appealed to the other political parties not to boycott the polls. Now it seems to be having second thoughts, given the surge in the prospects of the PPP. Also, the news is that the Election Commission is pondering whether or not to postpone the elections because of the damage done to its electoral machinery, especially in Sindh. But we would advise against it. Given the lack of trust and bad blood in the situation, many will now turn around and accuse the government of secretly advising the Election Commission to postpone the elections as a device to soften the damage done by a “sympathy wave” for the PPP. Election watchers say the PMLQ, which had bagged 118 National Assembly seats in the 2002 elections, may now lose much of its vote to the PPP and the PMLN in Punjab and be reduced to the third instead of the first party of the country.
It may be recalled that in 2002 the PPP without Ms Bhutto to lead it had polled the highest votes in the country but not the commensurate number of seats in parliament, thus coming second to the PMLQ, with 80 seats. Therefore, all said and done, before its elected members were pried off as “patriots”, the PPP was the second largest party in parliament. In the event, it is not difficult to envisage a big turning away of the vote from the incumbent party after the assassination of Ms Bhutto. The beneficiaries will be the PPP and the PMLN. So far the PMLQ’s response has come in the shape of a rebuke about the “subjugation” of the PMLN to the PPP (“it is the PPP’s B team” say the Chaudhries of Punjab); but facts may prove otherwise.
Mr Nawaz Sharif’s decision to show solidarity with the PPP may have been partially contested within the party before the tragedy of December 27, but now it is bound to yield dividends when it comes to picking up the votes accruing to a number of PMLQ’s “weak” candidates. News from the districts in this regard is not good for the Q League. Will this persuade the party leader, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, to switch off his appeal to all parties to take part in the January 8 polls? Will this change within the party affect the deliberations of the Election Commission?
A lot was said about postponing the elections by analysts, not because postponement in itself was indicated, but because it was thought that the PPP would take time to recover from the shock of the assassination of its leader. Subliminally, it was also expected that the party might face certain “leadership difficulties” in the post-Benazir period. But the PPP has met the challenge with remarkable resilience, thanks also to the clear-headed decision taken by the late chairperson in her will about the role of Mr Asif Zardari and Bilawal Zardari and the parliamentary leadership of Makhdoom Amin Fahim.
Let us be cold-blooded. Originally, postponement didn’t suit President Pervez Musharraf as it would have given time to the political parties to press ahead with their maximalist demands, like his own removal from the scene and the setting up of a “national government”. So the latest decision by the PPP leaves him intact in the presidency, which should persuade him to galvanise a rather disheartened Election Commission to get everything ready for January 8. More significantly, if he was scared of being president to Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto — or Ms Bhutto sitting as leader on the sidelines — he must now be relieved that he would have to interact with Mr Fahim as prime minister. Also, the government should note that if it leans on the Election Commission to postpone the elections, it will have to contend with universal demands for a national government instead of the current caretakers. How will it deal with that issue? It has the potential to provoke a backlash in which the PPP and PMLN could join hands with the boycott lobby and destabilise the regime.
Mr Asif Ali Zardari has followed the lead of his wife with great wisdom. He has rededicated the party to the politics of the federation and has firmly forbidden the PPP’s Sindhi supporters from bad-mouthing Punjab or the Pakistan Army. In other words, he has prevented the party’s first instinct to slide back into Sindh. Equally, his wisdom to accept the mild-mannered Makhdoom Amin Fahim as the parliamentary leader in these times of extreme emotion may have given the country another chance to return to democratic normalcy after years of uncertainty. *

Suicide-bombing continues

Two suicide bombers have enacted a botched attempt in Bahawalpur which the police says could have been targeting the ex-minister for religious affairs, Mr Ijazul Haq. His targeting has been mentioned together with the earlier unsuccessful attempts on the life of the ex-interior minister Mr Aftab Sherpao. And why should these two ministers of the Shaukat Aziz government be targeted? Clearly, on the basis of the roles played by them during the crisis of Lal Masjid in 2007. The destruction of the Lal Masjid seminary was denounced by the top Al Qaeda leadership and by their warlord-satraps in South Waziristan.
The credibility of these Talibanised satraps is quite high in Pakistan only because that of President Musharraf is low. Even though these warlords admit they train suicide bombers, don’t want women to vote or be educated, don’t want people to listen to music or see films or play sport, many people still don’t think ill of them. This is a state of unprecedented collective denial. Does it mean that it won’t be rectified until the object of greater scorn exits first? *