Daily Times

The Gilani government is imploding from within because of its inherent institutional and class contradictions, not to mention bad governance, lack of political will and the rampant corruption that is eating away at the already fledgling middle class. Of course, it will try to survive the political storm by creating different combinations and permutations but, at the end of the day, it is doomed to go unless a very stringent self-correction is made.

In a strange way, the parties that are based in the middle class — religious or otherwise — have parted ways with the ruling feudal elite. The immediate reason for the departure of the MQM and the JUI-F may have occurred due to a set of conspiracies, one of which says that they may be bidding farewell to the PPP on someone’s behalf. However, the fact remains that they cannot justify their continued presence in the ruling coalition, which is perceived to be impoverishing the middle classes that these parties derive their support from. Similarly, other middle-class based powerful institutions like the judiciary and military have their own reasons to attempt to correct the current political course.

The PPP government may not be responsible for all the socio-economic crises that the country is going through, but it has not even tried to solve the most important issues. From power shortages and government over-borrowing to the explosion of inflation, the situation has worsened in the last three years. The credit the PPP takes for legal and constitutional reforms has come after foot dragging and generating repeated crises. It cannot take much credit for improvement in the war against terrorism because that was in the exclusive domain of the military.

The ongoing impoverishment of the economy and collision with the judiciary cannot continue for long. A cohesive economic, political and administrative system has to be put in place if the state of Pakistan, with inherent ethnic and ideological contradictions, is to survive. The institutions with the highest stakes in the state know very well that if meaningful corrective measures are not taken, they will be thrown into the dustbin of history. And, no one is keen to commit suicide.

I have been of the view for sometime that Pakistan’s military is genuinely worried about the country’s sagging economy and social anarchy. The military, self-professedly India phobic, is not blind to the economic strength its enemy is gaining. They probably understand that if the present gap between India and Pakistan’s economic growth continues to widen, Pakistan will become an insignificant player in regional politics even if it survives as a country. If Pakistan wants to be as relevant as Taiwan is to China, then it has to be economically as vibrant as China’s separated part is. If this does not happen, then Pakistan will become like Bhutan to India. This nightmarish situation is not acceptable to Pakistan’s military leadership.

One can argue that most of the problems Pakistan is facing were created by military regimes but this does not mean that the most powerful institution cannot change its course. Most probably, this is what military did when it allowed political reforms and helped the reinstatement of the judiciary. Like everyone else, the military expected that the PPP government would improve the sinking economy and address other political issues. However, the disappointment in the PPP government is universal. In this backdrop, one can imagine that the military cannot remain a passive spectator. Being the largest stakeholder in the state of Pakistan, the military is going to do whatever it takes to protect its self-interest. Such an interest cannot be safeguarded if the economy continues tanking and social anarchy proliferates.

The present PPP government may juggle around with numbers to stay in power but it has no plans of correcting the system. As a matter of fact, its mindset is fixated on yesteryears and hence has no clue to what the country is facing. Putting it more crudely, most of the people in the governing elite have been acting as if this is their last chance to accumulate wealth. Or they have been busy in defending the accumulation of the wealth of the past. Such a disastrous discourse cannot be prolonged even by those who are obsessed by the ideal of democracy.

The bottom line is that political change is inevitable. However, the question remains whether or not the successive ruling elite will become rulers who look towards Pakistan’s long term interests or those who pursue their party’s narrow short-term interests. The next rulers of Pakistan should heed the mistakes of their predecessors and attempt to stop Pakistan’s economic decline by working to lower inflation rates and government borrowing, while pursuing an energy policy that can provide for the growing demand. Such an attempt should be viewed as a positive development for the military to recognise and may thereby release the reins of governance to the civilian leadership. However, the vicious cycle of poverty and military coups will continue to erode the fabric of Pakistan unless the PPP or its peers can deliver on the issues of importance to the people.

The writer can be reached at manzurejaz@yahoo.com