Daily Times

To bet on the future of a country or a company is a matter of analysis and intuition. You look at the facts and figures, combine them with your sixth sense and make a choice. In many a situation, with all logic pointing to one direction, a hunch takes over and makes the illogical alternative a choice. As far as Pakistan is concerned, all those who want to invest in the country are thought of as illogical or as going by some irrational instinct to put their stakes in ventures unsure. The troubling part is that intuition itself is not a mad impulse with no roots but a processing of experience and foresight, which tells you that the future may be different from the present and the past. Thus, in the case of Pakistan, even illogical intuition may signal in the negative.

As far as facts and figures are concerned, macro indicators paint a sorry picture. The economy, reeling with debt and deficits, is crawling at two percent. This, combined with rocketing inflation and high costs of borrowing, is discouraging even the most optimistic of analysts to microscopically search for some economic glimmer that will give reason to hope better. The State Bank has been screaming for prudence in government borrowing and the finance minister has been pleading for discretion in government spending but the government, deafened by its own loud misgovernance, is busy announcing “actions” against the corruptors that we all know will result in nothing more than another astounding transfer of these individuals from one post to another. The economic advisors are putting pressure on the government to declare fiscal emergency as the half yearly budget deficit is Rs 510 billion, almost 70 billion more than the target of Rs 442 billion. The normal ways of filling the gap would be to decrease non-development expenditure and increase revenues through more investment in business, exports etc. However, that is asking for too much from a government whose vision and intention is limited to how to get through the day without being kicked out of their positions with full focus on securing every penny possible in their secret accounts.

As expected, the axe will fall on the public. After the withdrawal of the raise in petrol prices, the government has started pulling money out of essential development expenditure. The infrastructure spending on roads, bridges and railways is down by 36 percent and has gone into funding the massive security requirements of the VIPs. Spending on education — as usual — has declined. With such dismal macro showing, foreign investors are putting Pakistan on the ‘avoid, wait and withdraw’ category. Consequently, foreign investment for the first six months declined by 15.4 percent.

The local investor, stifled under the crunch of non-availability of energy and unsustainably high prices, is in the dilemma of where to procure growth from. With no local market expansion, exports are getting much more appealing. However, both at the government level and the industry level, there is no coherent strategy to find new markets for products. The traditional markets of the UK and the US are themselves going through economic contraction and thus the exporter must diversify both its markets and products if it needs to sustain growth.

The government has decided to declare 2011 as the year of exports for Pakistan and is trying to make a plan for exports after consultation with stakeholders on how to increase its exports on an all out basis. However, the approach of the government is almost noncommittal on any planned execution of the multiple studies conducted previously. The laidback approach of our government is evident from the remarks made by Tariq Puri, the head of the Trade and Development Authority, that the ban on fisheries by the EU is a blessing as that ban forced Pakistani exporters to find other markets like Egypt and the Middle East, which by default came into the sphere of our target markets.

On our industry level, the need to diversify product lines to cater to the differing needs of the customers has never been felt more. A recent survey revealed that the halal food market of nearly $ 580 million was being catered to by non-Muslim countries such as Brazil, China and India. There are two billion Muslims in the world and a great deal of preferential trade could be generated if the government and the exporters of Pakistan could jointly do a market study of the needs of these markets and design offers catering to their varying needs.

These are tough times and you need tough measures to get out of this economic mess. The routine way of business and governance will surely not succeed. The government’s ability to be decisive and action oriented has been reduced to a laughingstock. Their inability to power through with their decisions to enforce any new legislation has suffered serious setbacks due to differences with their friends and foes. To overcome the deficits, non-traditional strategies are a must to create new revenue streams. Since the government is living on economic cortisone, it is up to the industry to survive and thrive despite the government.

2011 has started on a desperate note where survival of all sorts has become a game of nerves and tenacity. Most businesses are trying to find refuge overseas and most individuals are accepting jobs or offers outside Pakistan, which do not do justice to their experience and calibre. It is almost a titanic like desperation where people are jumping out in dangerous waters out of fear of being drowned along with a sinking ship. When the present is so murky, planning for the future becomes a far cry.

However, the true test of a nation, an organisation and an individual is when the chips are down. It is the duty of the more aware and still surviving sector of society to change this desire for change into a national calling where a united effort can result in getting rid of the roots of shameless leadership. If we do not bring about a change, unaware and unexposed minds are going to unite to continue the insanity of taking the law into their hands with no holds barred on who comes into their line of fire. It is in making tough choices and standing tall amongst crisis that the character of nations can be remade and recreated.

The writer is a consultant and can be reached at andleeb.abbas1@gmail.com