Daily Times

As the situation in Egypt and its surroundings unfolds, and as the international media continues to feed us with images of anger and a sombre dissent, most, if not all, have begun to think that a change is around the corner. Let me warn you though, this is but an illusion. As the on the ground situation dictates, there is no real change in sight. It seems that no amount of sacrificial blood shall satisfy these unwanted gods that rule over us.

On February 5, the International Herald Tribune, following up on news reports by local papers in Pakistan, carried a story about an impending revolution in Pakistan on its front page on similar lines as that of Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East. Let me add here that if such a thing were to happen in Pakistan, whether in a week or in a year, we shall gain nothing out of it.

But that is beside the point. Pragmatically speaking, we cannot have a revolution. The reason is simple. There is no real leadership in Pakistan, nor elsewhere in the Muslim world. Above all, there is no proposal whatsoever from any political entity for an alternative ‘system’ to replace the present system.

Why am I so pessimistic after all? Let me first make certain things clear before I proceed. We have, of late, started abusing the term ‘revolution’ way too much. Thanks to our politicians and media anchors, this word has been stripped of its meaning and made to appear like an everyday exercise.

Revolution is, by its very definition, the turning of a system upside down. It means the complete removal of one system, to be replaced by a completely new one. Not a single political entity in this country talks in these terms, nor do the confused masses in Egypt. All we ask for and all they ask for is an illusive ‘change’. Pity that a change is something that is not an answer to our woes. A change of faces has never helped our cause and it is foolish to be expectant of it.

So what is going on in Egypt after all? It is quite simple: dissipation of built up anger, something that serves very well the western agenda of prolonging the system put in place by their rented poodles.

New documents released by WikiLeaks show that the US had been covertly working with some Egyptian student leader over possibilities of developing a young, liberal opposition in Egypt two years ago. One year ago, in his lecture at Harvard, ElBaradei hinted at his wish for a new job. All of a sudden he got propped up as an opposition leader once the protests started. ElBaradei’s American loyalties are beyond question.

This is all too cynical but, unfortunately, this is the way it is. The Egyptian people, I fear, are the losers once again. Their anger will be dissipated in the next few days and we will enter into a period of lull for another decade or so.

One should not waste effort talking about the change of faces that is likely in the Egyptian government; whether it is Omar Suleiman or ElBaradei; the old system will remain in place irrespective of whether Hosni Mubarak stays or goes.

I would like to hint at another historic event that flooded our own streets with unrest not so long ago. The lawyers’ movement is still fresh in our memories. I was sceptical about it when it was happening, and today my scepticism has been reinforced by the events in the Middle East. I see so many parallels between the events following the chief justice’s removal by Musharraf and those that we continue to witness in Egypt. It is almost déjà vu.

Here is a simple context to the lawyers’ movement: Musharraf’s expiry of term date was approaching, the Pakistani populace was showing signs of unrest, and the powers-that-be needed to ensure the continuation of the system put in place by Musharraf over the past decade.

The solution: an orchestrated chaos that would serve as a means to dissipate the built up anger, provide a pretext for Musharraf’s replacement and at the same time ensure the longevity of the ‘system’. This is exactly what happened.

And the losers were only the people of Pakistan, whose blood after all turned out to be pretty cheap. The Pakistani people are still exhausted from the rioting of 2007. They will not come out on the streets for a while now.

There is another very important thing to note. The means of channelising public sentiment have become much easier and efficient with the advent of the new media. The role that Al Jazeera has played in organising the Egyptian street is phenomenal. It is indeed Al Jazeera’s revolution. Not so down in our memory lane, a leading Pakistani news channel (with its unapologetic sensationalism and agenda-driven reportage) played a very similar role in ‘awakening’ the people of Pakistan to the need of the hour — the restoration of the judiciary. It was not all that objective, or was it?

The media syndicate made fortunes; Musharraf fled away with his fortune; the PPP gained power (and made fortunes) and, above all, ensured the safeguarding of American interests in the region, but the people of Pakistan were the losers yet again.

My conclusion of all that is happening is pretty pessimistic. This is a spoiled broth, regrettably, and it is not going to get right any time soon. I believe that drawing a comparison of our own state with our Egyptian brothers is a good thing. The parallels do exist. But I see a change neither here nor there. For those who find this essay a bit too cynical or laden with conspiracy theories, I would suggest a reading: Seize the Moment: America’s Challenge in a One-Superpower World by Richard Nixon.

The writer is a research assistant at the Development Policy Research Centre, Pakistan and is also associated with the Centre for International Media Ethics. He can be reached at talhajalal@hotmail.com