Daily Times

In pursuance of the decision reached by their foreign secretaries in Thimphu on February 6, 2011, Pakistan and India are resuming the stalled peace process by holding an interior secretary level meeting in New Delhi on March 28 and 29. The New Delhi meeting will be followed by a meeting between the foreign secretaries of the two countries in July, which will pave the way for the foreign ministers of Pakistan and India to meet some time later this year. What prospects do these meetings hold for the achievement of peace, normalcy and resolution of disputes between Pakistan and India? This is the question that agitates the mind of every concerned citizen on each side of the border, and, of course, the minds of many outside the region, who are genuinely concerned about peace, security and stability in South Asia. The question becomes all the more pertinent in view of the unfortunate outcome and bitter controversy generated by the meeting of the two countries’ foreign ministers held in July last year.

The July 2010 talks between Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and his Indian counterpart S M Krishna collapsed because of the Indian intransigence on focusing on the terror issue only, whereas Pakistan focused on the resumption of a comprehensive dialogue process to discuss all issues, including terrorism and Jammu and Kashmir, with a clear roadmap for future talks. The Pakistani side had alleged that the Indian side had walked into the talks with no intention of chartering a future roadmap that would include all segments of the composite dialogue initiated in 2004. In the intervening period between July 2010 and February 2011, the gap between the two countries further widened as Pakistan countered Indian obduracy by insisting that Islamabad would not join talks if they were talks for the sake of talks only, and that any future parleys must be productive and result oriented. The possibility of the resumption of Pakistan-India dialogue looked quite remote.

But then came the Thimphu Thaw. This was the result of an understanding reached in a meeting between Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir and his Indian counterpart Ms Nirupama Rao in the capital of the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan on February 6, 2011. On February 10, a joint statement titled ‘India-Pakistan foreign secretary level talks in Thimphu’ was simultaneously issued from Islamabad and New Delhi, announcing the resumption of dialogue on all issues following the spirit of the Thimphu meeting between the prime ministers of Pakistan and India. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met in Thimphu last year during the summit meeting of SAARC. The two prime ministers agreed to make a fresh start for the resumption of peace talks that had remained suspended since the Mumbai terror attacks in November 2008. The two prime ministers mandated their foreign secretaries and foreign ministers to arrange their meetings for the resumption of the dialogue.

Unlike last year’s abortive attempt to resume the peace talks, the forthcoming multi-level Pakistan-India peace talks hold better prospects for a meaningful outcome if not a dramatic breakthrough in the search for settling the outstanding disputes between the two countries for a variety of reasons.

First of all, the two sides are approaching the forthcoming round of talks without any pre-conditions. Secondly, both sides have modified their otherwise rigid stands to accommodate each other’s sensitivities on important issues like terrorism, water and Jammu and Kashmir.

Thirdly, the talks will be comprehensive as indicated by the range of issues the two countries are going to discuss in the next few months. The issues include counter-terrorism, humanitarian issues, peace and security, Jammu and Kashmir, friendly exchanges, Siachen, Sir Creek, trade and economic cooperation, Wullar Barrage and Tulbul Navigation Project. All these issues constituted the eight baskets, which the two countries had discussed and deliberated upon in four previous rounds, but the Indians were reluctant to revert to them. There is a change in the title to accommodate Indian sensitivity, but the substance remains the same.

Finally, the progress achieved during the previous four rounds of composite dialogue provides a reasonably strong base for the two countries to advance on the road towards the settlement of bilateral issues, including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. The two countries had made significant forward movement on CBMs, trade, including trans-LoC trade, and people-to-people contacts through friendly exchanges. On the conclusion of the fourth round of composite dialogue in May 2008, Pakistani and Indian officials had finalised their recommendations to enhance the volume of trade across the LoC, increase the frequency of the bus service between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar, ease the travel regime across the LoC and extend the facility of cross-LoC visits to people other than the members of divided families. Had the Mumbai terrorist attacks not taken place, Pakistan and India would have made further progress on the road towards resolving complex issues like Kashmir as the four rounds of composite dialogue had helped narrow down the divergence of perspectives of the two countries on bilateral disputes, including the dispute on Jammu and Kashmir.

Among the first things the two countries are expected to do following the resumption of talks is the signing of final agreements on Siachen and Sir Creek as all the fundamental differences on these two issues have been settled. The liberalisation of the visa regime between the two countries is another issue on which the people of the two countries will wish the two sides to make progress.

The writer is a professor of International Relations at Sargodha University. He can be reached at rashid_khan192@yahoo.com