Daily Times

On Tuesday 18 May, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan signed a trilateral protocol to link Termiz with Kurran via Mazar-i-Sharif by connecting the Uzbek rail link with Pakistan. The project envisages supporting passenger travel and freight services. The project as per the protocol is envisaged to be completed by the end of 2027. It is hoped that the completion of the project will significantly contribute to the growth of regional trade and economic development of the participating nations by cutting cargo delivery time between Uzbekistan and Pakistan by about five days and slashing goods transportation costs by 40 pc. The three nations have also signed the construction of another trans-Afghan Railway track spanning 573 Km.

It is an undeniable reality that regional connectivity is pivotal to embarking on the path of shared economic prosperity by exploiting and sharing the resources that are waiting to be gainfully employed. It also has tremendous potential to boost trade, tourism and cultural interaction between them. The completion of these projects would also open up landlocked Central Asia to the world for investment and trade and also help Pakistan to have access to the energy markets of these countries and Russia. It all sounds very nice and promising and contemplates a win-win situation for all the stakeholders.

But the dilemma is the plans for regional connectivity and shared economic prosperity can only materialize and unleash the envisaged benefits when there is peace and stability in Afghanistan. Until then they would only remain a pipe dream like CASA-1000 and TAPI. It is pertinent to point out that the success of CPEC which seeks connectivity with Central Asian States also depends on peace in Afghanistan.

The success of CPEC, which seeks connectivity with Central Asian States, also depends on peace in Afghanistan.

The groundbreaking ceremony of the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project, known as CASA-1000, was formally held on 12th May 2016 near Dushanbe, Tajikistan. The foundation stone of the project was jointly laid by Tajik President Emmolai Rahmon, Chief Executive of Afghanistan Abdullah Abdullah, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Sooronbay Jeenbekove and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. It represented an important milestone regarding cooperation among the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The project is designed to transmit 1300 MW of electricity from the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, initially, only 1000 MW will be provided out of which Afghanistan and Pakistan will be receiving 300 MW and 700MW electricity respectively through a 1222 Km transmission line. Designed on the pattern of 340,00 Kilometer North American Grid and the 230,000 Kilometer European Power System, the project enjoyed the support of the World Bank Group, Islamic Development Bank, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), US State Department, United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID), Australian Agency for International Development and other donor communities.

An inter-governmental agreement was signed in August 2008 to govern and resolve issues critical to the implementation of the project. In October 2014, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed on a transit fee of $ 1.25 per kilowatt followed by a master agreement as well as a power purchase agreement in February 2015. It has been agreed that Pakistan will purchase electricity at $9.35 per kilowatt during the initial 15 years which also includes the transit fee to be paid to Afghanistan. The project is expected to be operative by the end of 2018 and is yet in the doldrums due to instability in Afghanistan.

A trans-regional gas pipeline project between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India known as TAPI was conceived by Western Multinational Oil Companies that were working in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan at the beginning of the 1990s, given Russian refusal to allow them the use of the pipeline network in these countries which it controlled. These companies needed an independent export route avoiding both Iran and Russia. The project to be funded by the Asian Development Bank was launched on 15 March 1995 when Pakistan and Turkmenistan signed an inaugural memorandum for the pipeline. In April 2008 Pakistan, Afghanistan and India signed a framework agreement to buy natural gas from Turkmenistan. This project also remains in limbo as nothing substantial has been done on the ground so far.

Another project for transmission of gas from Iran to Pakistan and India dubbed as Peace Pipeline came up in 1994. The $7.5 billion, 1,700-mile project envisaged bringing gas from the South Pars Gas Fields through Baluchistan into India. The project stalled multiple times. In 2008, a deal was nearly struck between the three countries until India decided to move towards an alternative pipeline project (TAPI). Sanctions on Iran coupled with pressure from the United States most likely influenced India’s decision to leave the deal.

After India pulled out of the plan, Iran and Pakistan remained in partnership and signed a deal in 2009. The pipeline’s construction was planned to begin in 2012 and be completed by 2014. However, the project faced significant delays as Pakistan failed to commit to the construction of its portion of the pipeline. U.S. sanctions on Iran in 2012 caused Pakistan to backtrack on the project. Additionally, in 2015, Pakistan agreed to import gas from Qatar, further weakening the possibility and economic necessity for Pakistan to complete the pipeline.

Iran has since completed the construction of its part of the pipeline. The construction of Pakistan’s portion of the pipeline was inaugurated in March 2013, but no further progress has been made in this regard. In September 2019, the Interstate Gas Systems (ISGS) of Pakistan and the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) drafted a new agreement for the construction of the pipeline. Under the new agreement, the countries would mutually chalk out a practical solution for the completion of the project and Pakistan would be expected to construct its part of the project by 2024. Regrettably, even after the new agreement no progress has been made on the project. The Iranian government has been repeatedly reminding Pakistan that in case of non-completion of the pipeline on its part would entail a hefty penalty of $ 18 billion. The lack of action on the construction of the portion of the gas pipeline on the Pakistani side is also attributable to US sanctions against Iran. Pakistan fears that going ahead with the project could provoke retaliatory action by the USA.

The reality is that energy-starved Pakistan badly needs the completion of all the trans-regional projects which unfortunately have been the victim of the volatile security situation in Afghanistan and global politics respectively. The permeating situation demands collective efforts by the regional countries to ensure peace in Afghanistan and take the Afghan government on board in regard to the envisaged steps. They should also collectively find a way to nullify the impact of global politics on trans-regional projects.

The writer is a former diplomat and freelance columnist.