Daily Times

Pakistan’s socio-political system has reached a critical stage where the competition or confrontation between institutions is leading to an inevitable but unexpected change. An overwhelmingly agrarian Pakistani society has evolved into a multi-layered complex body where new urban middle classes have matured enough to play a role. If the dominant institutions of the military and political elites do not rapidly adjust to the changing reality, an unprecedented and disastrous situation can develop.

Whatever way we cut it, the incidents of the last month compelled the military to come to parliament and explain itself to the legislators and the public. Despite the chiding posture of General Shuja Pasha, this was a new development. But then, Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani issued a long rebuttal, a public criticism, after the 139th Corps Commander’s Conference. In this comprehensive statement, he reasserted the military’s monopoly over defining the ideology and policy of the state of Pakistan. If one dissects General Kayani’s statement, part of it is the military’s claim to define the country as an ‘Islamic’ state and other parts are operational policies as to how the country is going to be run.

What General Kayani and the army do not realise is that the military’s monopoly over the Pakistani state was the product of a set of historical factors that have substantially changed. Now, other institutions of the state are maturing to the level that a new inter-institutional balance has to evolve or the state will wither away.

Before the partition of India most of the business and professional classes were comprised of largely Hindus and partly Sikhs in areas that are included in Pakistan now. It is an interesting historical fact that conversion to Islam took place among the bulk of the rural peasantry and some ruling families. In the urban areas only artisan and working classes embraced Islam. Therefore, throughout the Muslim rule the urban business and state bureaucracy was always comprised of Hindus.

After 1947 the cleansing of Hindus completely from Punjab (the largest part of present-day Pakistan) and partially from other provinces created a complete vacuum. In this void, the military was the only organisation that was professionally organised. Muslim Punjabis and Pashtuns were adequately represented only in the military during the British Raj.

In the absence of the British overseeing and Hindu/Sikh professional classes, the institutions of the Pakistani state were like newly born babies who had scant knowledge of the workings of the state. All the institutions, specifically political, judicial and the media, lacked the depth and maturity to run a state. Therefore, it was easy — rather natural — for the military to step in and establish its monopoly over the key elements of the state.

The unnaturally quick rise of leaders in the military and civilian institutions was important as well. For example, captains or low level civil bureaucrats of this area could not have become generals or secretaries if the Hindus and Sikhs had not left. Therefore, a whole set of immature officialdom grabbed leadership in the military as well as in other institutions. This is one of the reasons that the military leadership did not restrain itself from imposing itself over society while other institutions were too weak to resist the overreaching of the armed forces.

With the passage of time, the other institutions have become mature. The early signs of such maturity appeared in the early part of the 1970s in which a progressive agenda was popularised by the PPP. Although the PPP was led by an enlightened feudal, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the main force of this movement was the middle class. As expected, the military reacted sharply by imposing a martial law and hanging Bhutto to reverse the new realignment of institutions where it had to let go of its monopoly. The military enhanced its monopoly after 1977 to forestall any new effort to rearrange the institutional balance. The civilian sectors that had issued their wish list in 1970 through the PPP could not defend and capitulated. For the next 30 plus years, the military has become used to its superiority. However, now it is facing opposition from much more mature civilian institutions.

In the last decade, the media, as an institution, was rising and having an impact on different sectors of society. The movement for the restoration of the independent judiciary also showed that a vital branch of the state was gaining enough maturity. The way the PML-N acted as an opposition party was also another sign of the strengthening of democratic forces. Despite the incompetent PPP government and its non-cooperation with the judiciary or with the genuine political opposition, it is becoming clearer that a realignment of institutional balance is underway. Therefore, the military is facing other sets of forces that are different from the 70s. In this situation, the military can unleash ruthlessness to suppress the emerging forces or concede to them as a fait accompli. Maybe the military has read the tea leaves as an ex-COAS, General Jehangir Karamat maintains, but it has yet to be seen how far the military can withdraw itself from civilian affairs.

The writer can be reached at manzurejaz@yahoo.com